人民币汇率的决定因素研究

发布时间：2018-10-07 19:18

【摘要】：在中国经济日益密切参与到国际经济活动中去，对外经济交往不断加深，国民生产总值高速增长的经济背景下，汇率日益成为一个重要的经济变量，成为了国际经济交往的纽带，几乎所有的国际经济活动都要与汇率产生联系。一个开放经济体的经济发展与汇率制度是分不开的。自从2005年我国实行了以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节的有管理的浮动汇率制度之后，人民币汇率问题日益成为国际经济中的一个重要课题。如何有效估计人民币的均衡汇率，测算人民币汇率的失调程度，合理预估人民币币值的走势，对于我国的对外经济交往乃至国民经济的健康发展都有着重要的理论和现实意义。本文首先回顾了人民币汇率制度的改革历程，以历史的发展的眼光看待人民币汇率问题，紧接着对西方经济学中的经典汇率决定理论进行了综述，以期确定影响一国汇率的基本经济因素有哪些。在此基础之上，笔者选择了行为均衡汇率理论（BEER）对人民币的均衡汇率进行实证分析。在具体的变量选择过程中，笔者结合对经典汇率理论的分析，确定了经济开放度、劳动生产率、贸易条件、货币供给量、政府支出和国内外利率差六个基本经济变量作为人民币均衡汇率的解释变量，通过实证分析确定了人民币均衡汇率方程，并测算了人民币汇率的失调程度，预测了人民币未来的走势。本文在理论分析和实证分析的基础上得出了以下结论：（1）经济开放度、劳动生产率、贸易条件、货币供给量、政府支出和国内外利率差等对人民币均衡汇率确实有影响，但是影响方向及程度不同。（2）长期的人民币汇率走势情况，汇率失调是常态，但是失调程度不大。同时在未来的一段时间内，人民币汇率将保持失调的状态，稳步升值。在文章的最后，笔者对人民币汇率制度改革提出了几点建议：（1）增强人民币汇率的弹性。（2）深化发展外汇市场，提高市场活跃度。（3）缓解人民币升值和通货膨胀并行的压力。
[Abstract]:In the context of China's increasingly close participation in international economic activities, the deepening of foreign economic contacts and the rapid growth of its gross national product, the exchange rate has increasingly become an important economic variable. It has become the link of international economic communication, almost all international economic activities have to be linked with exchange rate. The economic development of an open economy is inseparable from the exchange rate regime. Since China implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand in 2005, with reference to a basket of currencies, the issue of RMB exchange rate has increasingly become an important issue in the international economy. How to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB effectively, calculate the misadjustment degree of RMB exchange rate, and estimate the trend of RMB currency value reasonably have important theoretical and practical significance for the healthy development of our country's foreign economic exchanges and even the national economy. This paper reviews the course of the reform of RMB exchange rate system, views the issue of RMB exchange rate from the perspective of historical development, and then summarizes the classical theory of exchange rate determination in western economics. With a view to determining the basic economic factors that affect a country's exchange rate. On this basis, the author chooses the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate theory (BEER) to carry on the empirical analysis to the RMB equilibrium exchange rate. In the process of choosing specific variables, the author analyzes the classical exchange rate theory and determines the economic openness, labor productivity, terms of trade, money supply. Six basic economic variables of government expenditure and interest rate difference at home and abroad are taken as the explanatory variables of RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The equilibrium exchange rate equation of RMB is determined by empirical analysis, and the misadjustment degree of RMB exchange rate is calculated. Forecast the future trend of RMB. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) Economic openness, labor productivity, terms of trade, money supply, government expenditure and interest rate differentials at home and abroad do have an impact on the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB. But the influence direction and the degree are different. (2) the long-term RMB exchange rate trend situation, the exchange rate misadjustment is the normal, but the misadjustment degree is not big. At the same time in the future, the RMB exchange rate will remain misaligned, steady appreciation. At the end of the paper, the author puts forward some suggestions on the reform of RMB exchange rate system: (1) strengthening the flexibility of RMB exchange rate; (2) deepening the development of foreign exchange market and increasing market activity; (3) relieving the pressure of RMB appreciation and inflation.
【学位授予单位】：国际关系学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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