大规模政府支出真的会挤出FDI吗——基于两者因果关系的实证研究与结构检验
发布时间：2018-10-12 14:18
【摘要】：中国政府大规模支出应对这次影响深远的金融危机,但这种积极的财政投入会不会挤出外商直接投资?就目前来看,学术界对此问题缺乏令人信服的深入研究。本文针对此问题进行实证检验,以期能较好回答政府支出是否会挤出FDI。研究结果揭示,二者之间不仅存在协整关系,还存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,即FDI是政府扩大支出的格兰杰原因,而政府扩大支出并不是引致FDI流入的格兰杰原因。这说明总体来看,政府支出不是挤出FDI的内在原因,但两者存在的负向协整关系说明,政府支出对FDI的抑制作用还是客观存在的。此外,本文还进一步把政府支出分成几个部分来分别检验其与FDI的关系,实证结果显示,政府生产性支出会明显挤出FDI,而科研支出不仅不会挤出反而对挤入FDI有积极意义。
[Abstract]:China's massive government spending to cope with this far-reaching financial crisis, but this kind of positive financial investment will crowd out foreign direct investment? At present, the academic community lacks convincing in-depth research on this issue. This paper makes an empirical test on this question in order to better answer whether government expenditure will crowd out FDI.. The results show that there is not only cointegration relationship but also one-way Granger causality between the two, that is, FDI is the Granger cause of the government's expanded expenditure, and the government's expanded expenditure is not the Granger's cause of FDI inflow. This shows that government expenditure is not the internal reason of squeezing out FDI, but the negative cointegration between them indicates that the restraining effect of government expenditure on FDI still exists objectively. In addition, this paper further divides the government expenditure into several parts to test its relationship with FDI separately. The empirical results show that the government productive expenditure will obviously squeeze out FDI, but the scientific research expenditure will not squeeze out but have positive significance for crowding into FDI.
【作者单位】： 厦门大学经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(批准号:08&ZD034) 国家社会科学基金一般项目(批准号:09BJL002)的前期研究成果
【分类号】：F224;F812.45;F832.6
[Abstract]:China's massive government spending to cope with this far-reaching financial crisis, but this kind of positive financial investment will crowd out foreign direct investment? At present, the academic community lacks convincing in-depth research on this issue. This paper makes an empirical test on this question in order to better answer whether government expenditure will crowd out FDI.. The results show that there is not only cointegration relationship but also one-way Granger causality between the two, that is, FDI is the Granger cause of the government's expanded expenditure, and the government's expanded expenditure is not the Granger's cause of FDI inflow. This shows that government expenditure is not the internal reason of squeezing out FDI, but the negative cointegration between them indicates that the restraining effect of government expenditure on FDI still exists objectively. In addition, this paper further divides the government expenditure into several parts to test its relationship with FDI separately. The empirical results show that the government productive expenditure will obviously squeeze out FDI, but the scientific research expenditure will not squeeze out but have positive significance for crowding into FDI.
【作者单位】： 厦门大学经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(批准号:08&ZD034) 国家社会科学基金一般项目(批准号:09BJL002)的前期研究成果
【分类号】：F224;F812.45;F832.6
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