通货膨胀机理变化及政策应对

发布时间：2018-10-16 09:20

【摘要】：本文构建了一个全球化背景下基于"两部门悖论"的简单模型框架,对全球通胀变化及其机理进行了经验分析。研究发现,近年来全球通胀呈现几个突出特征:一是"结构性"价格上涨已经并很可能在未来成为通胀的主要表现形式;二是由金融投机引发的初级产品价格暴涨成为导致CPI、PPI大涨的重要原因;三是CPI、PPI明显上涨时,往往已处在经济金融泡沫最后破裂的前夜,因此在衡量周期变化上CPI特别是核心CPI会相对滞后。本文认为,鉴于全球化背景下经济运行和通胀机理所发生的变化,要深化对技术进步、生产率改进、初级产品和资产价格以及国际货币和汇率体系变化等多重因素的监测分析,在宏观调控中更加关注更广泛意义上的价格变动,探索更为科学合理地衡量整体价格水平的途径和方法。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we construct a simple model framework based on "two-sector paradox" in the context of globalization, and make an empirical analysis of the global inflation change and its mechanism. It is found that in recent years, global inflation has shown several prominent characteristics: first, "structural" price rise has become and will probably become the main manifestation of inflation in the future; Second, the sharp rise in the prices of primary products caused by financial speculation has become an important reason for the sharp rise in CPI,PPI; third, when CPI,PPI is obviously rising, it is often already on the eve of the final bursting of the economic and financial bubble. Therefore, CPI, especially the core CPI, will lag behind in measuring periodic changes. In view of the changes in economic operation and inflation mechanism in the context of globalization, the paper argues that the monitoring and analysis of the multiple factors, such as technological progress, productivity improvement, commodity and asset prices, and changes in the international monetary and exchange rate system, should be deepened. In the macro-control, we pay more attention to the change of price in a wider sense, and explore the ways and methods to measure the whole price level more scientifically and reasonably.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行货币政策司;
【基金】：中国人民银行2008年度重点研究课题“现阶段中国通货膨胀问题”的研究成果之一
【分类号】：F820

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