我国银行业跨国并购风险识别、测评及防范研究

发布时间：2018-10-18 07:55

【摘要】：跨国并购是我国银行走向国际化的主要途径之一。准确识别银行跨国并购前、中、后的风险,对这些风险进行准确的测评,是银行成功防范跨国经营风险的基础,也关乎整个并购的成败及后续经营绩效的好坏。基于这一认识,本文系统全面的研究了我国银行跨国并购过程中的风险识别、风险测评,并提出了一些风险防范措施。全文以介绍银行跨国并购风险管理相关的概念、相关理论与相关测评方法如模糊评价法、层次分析法、灰关联分析法等方法论为逻辑切入点,以对我国银行业海外并购的历史、特点与动因的纵横梳理为辅助线,全面分析了我国银行跨国并购的前期筹备阶段、谈判磋商阶段和并购后的整合阶段所面临的各种风险及影响因素,认为我国银行跨国并购风险主要包括并购准备阶段的国家风险(政治风险、法律风险、经济风险)、战略决策风险和估计风险等,而并购谈判阶段主要有财务风险、反收购风险和信息不对称风险等,在并购整合阶段主要有银行规模不经济风险和整合风险(经营、文化、人力资源的整合风险)。在风险界定的前提下,文章结合中国建设银行收购巴西BIC银行的案例,实证分析了我国商业银行海外并购拉美银行的风险。分析的结果是在并购准备阶段,政治风险较小、经济风险不容忽视、法律风险不大、战略风险较低;在并购谈判阶段,虽然因为善意接管反收购风险也极低,但存在着较大的信息不对称风险、财务风险;因此,这次并购的风险主要集中在并购后的整合阶段。接着,文章应用AHP-GRAP模型测评这些风险。最后文章提出要对银行跨国并购风险进行分段式防范,强调银行在不同的并购阶段就要针对不同的风险进行定点防控。
[Abstract]:Cross-border M & A is one of the main ways for Chinese banks to internationalize. Accurately identifying the risks before, after, and evaluating these risks is the basis for the banks to successfully guard against the risks of transnational operations, and also relates to the success or failure of the whole M & A and the performance of subsequent operations. Based on this understanding, this paper systematically and comprehensively studies the risk identification and risk assessment in the process of cross-border mergers and acquisitions of Chinese banks, and puts forward some risk prevention measures. Based on the introduction of the concepts related to risk management of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, relevant theories and relevant evaluation methods such as fuzzy evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), grey correlation analysis and other methodologies, this paper takes the history of overseas M & A in China's banking industry as a logical starting point. This paper analyzes the risks and influencing factors in the preparatory stage, negotiation stage and integration stage of cross-border M & A in China. The paper holds that the risk of cross-border M & A of Chinese banks mainly includes the national risk (political risk, legal risk, economic risk), strategic decision risk and estimated risk in the preparation stage of M & A, while the main financial risk exists in the negotiation stage of M & A. Anti-takeover risk and information asymmetry risk, in the merger and acquisition integration stage, there are mainly bank scale uneconomic risk and integration risk (management, culture, human resources integration risk). On the premise of risk definition, this paper analyzes the risk of overseas mergers and acquisitions of Latin American banks by Chinese commercial banks in combination with the case of China Construction Bank (CCB) acquiring BIC Bank of Brazil. The result of the analysis is that in the stage of preparing for mergers and acquisitions, the political risks are relatively small, the economic risks cannot be ignored, the legal risks are small, and the strategic risks are low. In the M & A negotiation stage, although the risks of taking over the takeover in good faith are also extremely low, However, there is a large information asymmetry risk, financial risk; therefore, the risk of M & A is mainly concentrated in the integration stage after M & A. Then, the paper uses AHP-GRAP model to evaluate these risks. Finally, the paper points out that the risk of cross-border M & A of banks should be divided into two parts, and emphasizes that banks should aim at different risks in different stages of M & A.
【学位授予单位】：华东政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.3;F271

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