近期中国通货膨胀主要诱因研究

发布时间：2018-10-19 07:47

【摘要】：2007年，金融危机在世界范围内爆发，为了应对由此引发的经济问题，各国政府都采取了一系列刺激经济的政策。随着全球经济的逐步复苏，新一轮的通货膨胀又在世界范围内爆发。在这样的国际背景下，中国也难以独善其身，通货膨胀问题严重影响着人民的日常生活和国民经济的发展。因此，，正确的认识通货膨胀问题，找出造成本轮通货膨胀的原因，并进行有针对性的治理，对于恢复和推动中国经济快速、持续、健康的发展，具有非常重要的现实意义。文章通过回顾通货膨胀的相关理论和研究中国改革开放以来历次通货膨胀的经济情况，结合目前的国际背景，总结了中国新一轮的通货膨胀与前几次通货膨胀的区别和联系。再由此进行进一步的理论分析，提出可能引发通货膨胀的各种经济因素，并分析每个因素导致通货膨胀的途径。其中，文章创造性的考察了结构化因素对于通货膨胀的影响。然后文章采用月度数据，对上述可能引发通货膨胀的经济因素进行了深入的实证研究。在整个实证分析过程中，使用到了单位根检验、Granger因果检验、Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法。并通过数据与图、表等多角度进行观察，力图使整个分析过程细致、清楚。通过理论分析与实证分析，文章最终得出如下结论：在长期中，原料价格的上涨，人民币兑美元汇率的升高，经济中的结构化差异，货币超发以及进出口问题都是导致本轮通货膨胀的原因。而在短期内，以外汇储备为代表的外部冲击对通货膨胀造成的影响最为明显。同时，新一轮的通货膨胀存在巨大的惯性作用。此外，需要注意的是投资因素对于通货膨胀的影响仍然不容忽视。因此，对于本轮通货膨胀问题的治理应该主要针对上述的主要因素，采取有效的措施。
[Abstract]:In 2007, the financial crisis broke out all over the world. In order to deal with the economic problems caused by it, governments adopted a series of policies to stimulate the economy. With the gradual recovery of the global economy, a new round of inflation broke out around the world. In this international context, China is also difficult to escape, inflation seriously affects the daily life of the people and the development of the national economy. Therefore, the correct understanding of inflation, to find out the causes of this round of inflation, and to carry out targeted governance, to restore and promote the rapid, sustained and healthy development of China's economy, has a very important practical significance. By reviewing the relevant theories of inflation and studying the economic situation of China's previous inflation since the reform and opening up, this paper sums up the differences and relations between China's new round of inflation and the previous inflation in light of the current international background. Then further theoretical analysis is carried out, and various economic factors which may lead to inflation are put forward, and the ways for each factor to lead to inflation are analyzed. Among them, the article creatively examines the influence of structural factors on inflation. Then the paper makes an in-depth empirical study on the economic factors that may lead to inflation using monthly data. In the whole process of empirical analysis, the methods of unit root test, Granger causality test, Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used. And through data, diagram, table and other angles to observe, trying to make the whole analysis process meticulous and clear. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the paper finally draws the following conclusions: in the long run, the rise of raw material prices, the rise of RMB / US dollar exchange rate, the structural differences in the economy, Currency overissuance and import and export problems are the causes of this round of inflation. In the short-term, the impact of external shocks, represented by foreign exchange reserves, on inflation is the most obvious. At the same time, the new round of inflation has a huge inertia. In addition, it is important to note that the impact of investment factors on inflation still can not be ignored. Therefore, for the current round of inflation management should be aimed at the above main factors, take effective measures.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F224

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