中国老龄人口的收入、消费及储蓄研究

发布时间：2018-10-31 09:52

【摘要】：随着生育率的下降以及平均寿命的不断延长，中国从2000年起就步入了老龄化社会。老龄化水平的不断快速提高已经成为社会各界关注的焦点。本文在生命周期模型的框架下对城镇老年人的经济行为进行了详细的实证分析。本文首先对城镇老年人的收入、消费、储蓄以及财富的生命周期变化进行了分析。结果显示在缺少面板数据的情况下仅仅使用横截面方法研究老年人的收入、消费、储蓄以及财富的生命周期变化会导致带有误导性的结论，这是因为横截面分析没有考虑组群效应对不同年份出生的老年人口的影响。作为改进，本文利用所分析的数据对总体多次重复抽样的特征采用组群分析的方法分析了城镇老年人口收入、消费、储蓄以及财富的生命周期变化，结果表明城镇老年人口的收入和消费以及财富水平都随年龄的提高而不断提高。这意味着中国快速的经济增长使大部分城镇老年人的经济状况获得了改善。另一方面，分析也显示许多老年人在退休后仍然保持正的储蓄水平，该现象与标准的生命周期模型的基本结论相矛盾。造成这种现象的一个可能的原因在于不确定性的存在，理论分析表明面对不确定性时消费者会降低当期消费水平并进行预防性储蓄。对于老年人来讲，未来的医疗支出是其所面对的不确定性的主要来源之一。实证分析的结果显示对未来医疗支出的担心导致了城镇老年居民降低了消费水平并提高了储蓄率。本文还发现在给定其他条件不变的情况下，子女数量越多的老年人其消费水平越低，，储蓄率越高，从而在一定程度上表明遗赠动机对城镇老年居民的消费、储蓄行为产生了影响。除此之外，本文还分析了退休对老年人消费行为的影响。结果发现与发达国家的消费者类似，退休同样会导致中国城镇消费者的消费水平下降。为了分析退休导致消费下降的原因，本文进一步分析退休对不同种类消费支出的影响，结果发现退休所导致的消费支出下降主要集中在与工作有关的支出方面，这就意味着退休所导致的消费支出下降可能并由非未预期的负面收入冲击造成的。同时，退休没有导致消费者的主观幸福感下降则从另一个角度印证这种判断。
[Abstract]:China has been aging since 2000, as fertility has fallen and life expectancy has been increasing. The rapid improvement of aging level has become the focus of attention from all walks of life. This paper makes a detailed empirical analysis of the economic behavior of the elderly in cities and towns under the framework of the life cycle model. This paper first analyzes the life cycle changes of income, consumption, savings and wealth of the elderly in cities and towns. The results show that simply using cross-sectional methods to study changes in the life cycle of income, consumption, savings, and wealth in older people without panel data can lead to misleading conclusions. This is because cross-sectional analysis does not take into account the effect of cluster effect on the elderly population born in different years. As an improvement, this paper analyzes the life cycle changes of income, consumption, savings and wealth of the elderly population in cities and towns using the cluster analysis method. The results show that the income, consumption and wealth level of urban elderly population increase with the increase of age. This means that China's rapid economic growth has improved the economic situation of the elderly in most cities and towns. On the other hand, the analysis also shows that many elderly people still maintain a positive savings level after retirement, which contradicts the basic conclusions of the standard life cycle model. One possible cause of this phenomenon is the existence of uncertainty. Theoretical analysis shows that consumers will reduce the current consumption level and make precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty. For older people, future health care spending is one of the main sources of uncertainty they face. The results of empirical analysis show that the fear of future health care expenditure leads to lower consumption level and higher savings rate of the elderly residents in cities and towns. It is also found that, given other conditions, the lower the level of consumption, the higher the savings rate of the elderly with more children, which indicates to a certain extent the consumption of the bequest motivation to the elderly residents in cities and towns. Savings behavior had an impact. In addition, this paper also analyzes the impact of retirement on the consumer behavior of the elderly. It turns out that, like consumers in developed countries, retirement also leads to lower levels of consumer spending in China's cities and towns. In order to analyze the causes of the decline in consumption caused by retirement, this paper further analyzes the impact of retirement on different types of consumer expenditure. The results show that the decline of consumer expenditure caused by retirement is mainly focused on work-related expenditure. This means that the fall in consumer spending due to retirement could be caused by unexpected negative income shocks. At the same time, retirement does not lead to a decline in consumer subjective well-being from another point of view.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F126;F832.22;F224

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