基于银行系统性风险防范的我国房地产金融监管研究

发布时间：2018-11-02 21:07

【摘要】：由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机对国际金融业和宏观经济造成了极大的冲击，欧美各国监管当局深刻意识到了系统性风险巨大的破坏力，防范银行系统性风险成为后金融危机时代各国理论界和监管当局关注的焦点问题。本文的研究目的在于探讨我国房地产金融业可能存在的系统性风险，以及如何通过实施有效的房地产金融监管来抑制这一风险。本文首先概述了房地产金融监管与银行系统性风险的相关理论；并分析了当前我国房地产市场运行的基本特征：房地产开发投资规模和房价增长过快，，且房地产业对金融业的依赖程度加深。由于近几年我国房地产市场投机氛围严重，房价缺乏刚性需求的支撑，房地产市场存在房价泡沫破灭的风险，并可能将系统性风险传导给银行业。本文结合我国实际分析了可能引发我国银行系统性风险的宏观冲击因素—房价、股价、汇率、利率和GDP，进而通过Logit转换、VAR分析以及情景压力测试，得出房价波动相对其他宏观经济因素最有可能引发银行系统性风险这一结论，证明了房地产市场风险和银行系统性风险间具有很强的关联性。基于此，本文提出从房地产金融监管的角度来控制和防范房地产市场风险，以达到防范银行系统性风险的目的。本文通过Granger因果检验证明了通过控制房地产贷款等金融监管手段防范银行系统性风险具有可行性。本文分析了我国现有房地产金融监管制度的缺陷，并以防范银行系统性风险为目标，提出了完善我国房地产金融监管制度的相关建议。首先要重视房地产金融监管的指标化要求并引入逆周期监管措施；其次应强化房地产金融监管的责任制，这需要明确房地产金融的监管主体及其职责范围；三是建立房地产金融监管的预警制度，并将宏观压力测试作为房地产金融监管的重要工具。
[Abstract]:The international financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has had a great impact on the international financial industry and the macroeconomic. The regulatory authorities in Europe and the United States have been deeply aware of the great destructive power of systemic risks. The prevention of bank systemic risk has become the focus of attention of the theorists and regulators in the post-financial crisis era. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the possible systemic risk in China's real estate finance industry and how to restrain the risk by implementing effective real estate financial supervision. This paper first summarizes the real estate financial supervision and banking systemic risk related theory; The paper also analyzes the basic characteristics of the real estate market in our country at present: the investment scale of real estate development and housing price increase too fast, and the dependence of real estate industry on the financial industry is deepened. Because of the serious speculative atmosphere in China's real estate market in recent years and the lack of rigid demand for housing prices, the real estate market has the risk of housing price bubble burst, and may transmit the systemic risk to the banking industry. This paper analyzes the macro impact factors that may trigger the systemic risk of Chinese banks-house price, stock price, exchange rate, interest rate and GDP, through Logit conversion, VAR analysis and situational stress test. The conclusion that the fluctuation of house price is the most likely to lead to systemic risk of bank is relative to other macroeconomic factors, which proves that there is a strong correlation between the risk of real estate market and the systemic risk of bank. Based on this, this paper puts forward to control and guard against the real estate market risk from the angle of real estate financial supervision, in order to achieve the purpose of guarding against bank systemic risk. Through Granger causality test, this paper proves that it is feasible to prevent bank systemic risk by controlling financial supervision such as real estate loan. This paper analyzes the defects of the existing real estate financial supervision system in China, and puts forward some relevant suggestions to perfect the real estate financial supervision system in China, aiming at preventing the systemic risks of the banks. First of all, we should pay attention to the indexation requirements of the real estate financial supervision and introduce counter-cyclical supervision measures; secondly, we should strengthen the responsibility system of the real estate financial supervision, which needs to clarify the main body of the real estate financial supervision and its scope of responsibility. The third is to establish the early warning system of real estate financial supervision, and take macro stress test as an important tool of real estate financial supervision.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.1;F293.3;F224

【参考文献】