经济复苏背景下的美元汇率走势及相关建议
发布时间：2018-11-15 09:08
【摘要】：最近,美国经济向好与美元汇率走低形成明显反差。本文在分析这一现象原因的基础上,提出美元汇率中期走势取决于三大因素,即美国经济复苏进程、美国政府对短期与中长期利益的权衡、其他国家货币地位的变化。本文认为,美元汇率走势服从于美国政治和经济需要;在不从根本上损害美元储备货币地位和市场信心的前提下,美国政府将放任美元以温和的形式继续贬值;美元汇率中期内将持续处于下行通道;发生美元危机的可能性在增加。为应对美元汇率中期走弱趋势,应密切关注和研究美国货币政策变化,积极有序地调整我国外汇储备资产结构,深入实施市场多元化战略和"走出去"战略,积极稳妥地推进人民币国际化。
[Abstract]:Recently, the U. S. economy has improved in sharp contrast to the dollar's decline. Based on the analysis of the causes of this phenomenon, this paper points out that the medium-term trend of the dollar exchange rate depends on three major factors, namely, the process of American economic recovery, the balance between the short-term and medium- and long-term benefits of the United States government, and the changes in the monetary status of other countries. This paper holds that the trend of the exchange rate of the US dollar meets the political and economic needs of the United States, and that the US government will allow the US dollar to continue to depreciate in a moderate form without fundamentally damaging the reserve currency status and market confidence of the US dollar. The dollar will remain on a downward path in the medium term; the likelihood of a dollar crisis is increasing. In order to cope with the weakening trend of US dollar exchange rate in the medium term, we should pay close attention to and study the changes of US monetary policy, actively and orderly adjust the structure of our foreign exchange reserve assets, and carry out the market diversification strategy and "going out" strategy in depth. We will actively and steadily promote the internationalization of the renminbi.
【作者单位】： 中国进出口银行经济研究部;中国国际贸易学会;
【分类号】：F831.52
[Abstract]:Recently, the U. S. economy has improved in sharp contrast to the dollar's decline. Based on the analysis of the causes of this phenomenon, this paper points out that the medium-term trend of the dollar exchange rate depends on three major factors, namely, the process of American economic recovery, the balance between the short-term and medium- and long-term benefits of the United States government, and the changes in the monetary status of other countries. This paper holds that the trend of the exchange rate of the US dollar meets the political and economic needs of the United States, and that the US government will allow the US dollar to continue to depreciate in a moderate form without fundamentally damaging the reserve currency status and market confidence of the US dollar. The dollar will remain on a downward path in the medium term; the likelihood of a dollar crisis is increasing. In order to cope with the weakening trend of US dollar exchange rate in the medium term, we should pay close attention to and study the changes of US monetary policy, actively and orderly adjust the structure of our foreign exchange reserve assets, and carry out the market diversification strategy and "going out" strategy in depth. We will actively and steadily promote the internationalization of the renminbi.
【作者单位】： 中国进出口银行经济研究部;中国国际贸易学会;
【分类号】：F831.52
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