IPO公司盈利预测自愿性披露的外部约束机制

发布时间：2018-11-17 17:54

【摘要】：自愿性信息披露理论在西方学术界已经被广为接受,实务中也多有应用。然而,综观我国资本市场的发展进程,IPO公司盈余预测自愿性披露甚为缺乏。本文就这一现象展开分析,发现新兴资本市场与成熟资本市场相比,在新股发行制度、资本市场的有效性和竞争强度、信息的供求结构、法律法规和监管制度方面,均存在显著区别,从而形成了盈利预测自愿性披露的外部约束机制差异。本文进一步展开实证分析,发现外部约束机制与IPO盈利预测显著负相关,且统治了其它因素对盈利预测的影响。IPO公司根据盈利预测制度变革和监管规定不断做出权衡和反应,是影响盈利预测行为的首要因素。本文的政策意义在于,无论是政策制定者、监管方还是学术研究人员,在借鉴和应用自愿性信息披露理论时,不能脱离我国资本市场发展和法律监管的实情,否则难免南辕北辙。
[Abstract]:Voluntary disclosure theory has been widely accepted in western academic circles, and has been widely used in practice. However, looking at the development process of China's capital market, the voluntary disclosure of earnings forecast of IPO companies is scarce. This paper analyzes this phenomenon and finds that the emerging capital market is compared with the mature capital market in terms of the new issue system, the effectiveness and competition intensity of the capital market, the supply and demand structure of information, the laws and regulations, and the regulatory system. There are significant differences, thus forming a profit forecast voluntary disclosure of external constraints mechanism differences. The empirical analysis shows that the external constraint mechanism is significantly negatively correlated with the IPO profit forecast, and dominates the influence of other factors on the earnings forecast. IPO Company makes a constant trade-off and response according to the reform of the profit forecasting system and the regulation of the regulation. It is the primary factor that affects profit forecast behavior. The policy significance of this paper is that, whether it is the policy makers, regulators or academic researchers, when using voluntary information disclosure theory for reference and application, it can not be divorced from the development of capital market and the fact of legal supervision in China. Otherwise, it will inevitably be diametrically different.
【作者单位】：南京大学会计系;南京师范大学商学院;
【分类号】：F832.51

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