我国债券信用评级方法研究

发布时间：2018-11-17 18:55

【摘要】：近年来,信用债券市场得到大力发展,但是作为信用债券,由于缺乏国家信用做担保,其价值和价格的变化几乎完全取决于投资人对发行人资质信息的掌握程度,以及在此基础上做出的信用风险判断。而目前投资者对信用债券信用风险的判断,几乎都来源于信用评级机构给出的信用评级报告。而鉴于我国信用评级机构成立较晚,信用评级方法不够健全,各信用评级机构之间的评级方法不尽相同,以及信用评级报告给出的信息、有限,甚至出现企业花钱买通评级机构来换取高评级的现象,导致评级机构给出的评级结果和评级信息缺乏公信力,对投资者的投资而言意义不大,甚至在一定程度上还会影响投资者做出合理的投资决策。虽然至今,我国还没有出现真正意义上的信用风险事件,没有哪只债券出现了无法还本付息的现象,但是伴随着信用债券市场的迅速发展壮大,信用风险将是投资者投资时面临的主要风险。企业的经营状况出现问题,债券的还本付息变得困难,信用事件的爆发是任何一个债券投资者不愿踩到的地雷。因此,如果对债券的信用风险有个完善的可操作的信用评级办法来帮助投资者分析债券,努力避免踩到信用风险地雷,对投资者而言,将是一笔不小的财富。本文就是从投资者的角度出发,根据投资者对短期债券和长期债券的不同的投资理念,努力构建一套科学的、可实际操作的、包含信息充分债券评级方法,为投资者的投资保驾护航。本文安排如下：第一章导论部分,首先介绍了此次研究的选题背景,梳理了相关概念。第二章介绍了债券信用评级方法在我国的缺陷,最后针对信用评级机构给出的评级结果进行了实证检验。第三章从信用风险的影响因素和信用评级的一般模型与方法两个方面文梳理、回顾和总结相关文献后提出了本文的分析框架。第四章和第五依据债券投资者的投资理念,分别提出了短期债券信用评级方法和长期债券信用评级方法。第六章分别针对前两章提出的债券信用评级方法做了实证分析,得出这整套信用评级方法有效的结论。第七章总结本文的结论的同时也提出了一些相应的政策建议,此外还弱弱提出了债券信用评级方法研究的展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the credit bond market has been greatly developed, but as credit bonds, due to the lack of state credit guarantee, the changes in value and price depend almost entirely on the degree to which investors have grasped the issuer's qualification information. And on the basis of credit risk judgment. At present, investors' judgment on credit risk of credit bonds comes from credit rating reports from credit rating agencies. In view of the late establishment of the credit rating agencies in China, the inadequate credit rating methods, the different rating methods among the credit rating agencies, and the limited information given by the credit rating reports, Even the phenomenon of companies buying out rating agencies in exchange for high ratings has led to a lack of credibility in the ratings results and rating information given by rating agencies, which is of little significance to investors' investments. Even to a certain extent, investors will be affected to make reasonable investment decisions. Although up to now, there has been no real credit risk event in our country, and no bond has been unable to service its principal and interest, but with the rapid development of the credit bond market, Credit risk will be the main risk that investors face when investing. Business is in trouble, debt servicing has become difficult, and the outbreak of credit events is a mine that any bond investor is unwilling to step on. So it would be a big asset for investors to have a sound operational credit rating approach to the credit risk of bonds to help investors analyze bonds and try to avoid stepping on the credit risk mines. This article is from the investor's angle, according to the investor's different investment idea to the short-term bond and the long-term bond, tries hard to construct a set of scientific, practical, including information sufficient bond rating method. To protect the investment of investors. The thesis is arranged as follows: the first chapter introduces the background of this research and combs the related concepts. The second chapter introduces the defects of the bond credit rating method in China, and finally makes an empirical test on the rating results given by the credit rating agencies. The third chapter reviews the influencing factors of credit risk and the general models and methods of credit rating, then reviews and summarizes the relevant literature and puts forward the analysis framework of this paper. Chapter four and five put forward short-term bond credit rating method and long-term bond credit rating method according to bond investors' investment idea. Chapter 6 makes empirical analysis on the bond credit rating method proposed in the first two chapters, and draws the conclusion that the whole credit rating method is effective. The seventh chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper and puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations, in addition, the weak and weak put forward the prospects of the study of bond credit rating methods.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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