房地产价格波动对通货膨胀的传导机制研究

发布时间：2018-11-21 17:38

【摘要】：追求物价稳定是国家宏观调控的主要目标之一，严重的通货膨胀一旦发生，不仅会对经济发展造成破坏，也会影响到社会的稳定。而房地产价格的高低直接与居民生活条件挂钩，关系到民生，房地产价格波动也直接影响到社会投资水平、消费水平和国民生产总值。目前中国的现状是，一方面，物价水平持续升高，，通胀压力持续扩大；另一方面，自1998年国家取消福利房分配以来，房地产行业发展迅速，房价急剧上涨，泡沫化倾向加剧。因此，房价膨胀和通货膨胀都是国家宏观调控的焦点。近年来国家采取了一系列的宏观调控政策来响应持续上涨的房地产价格与物价水平，说明政府对物价管理和房地产宏观调控的重视，担心出现严重的房地产泡沫和通货膨胀。本文将研究范围选择为房价波动对通货膨胀的传导机制，而非简单阐述两者的相关性，这不仅是对资产价格和物价影响机制的探讨，更是梳理金融经济和实体经济的关系，一方面有助于完善关于两者传导机制的研究成果，为进一步推动学术界对金融经济和实体经济关系的研究作出理论贡献，另一方面理顺两者的传导过程有助于明确房价波动和通货膨胀之间较强的相关性，这为货币当局制定和执行有效的、有针对性的宏观调控政策提供理论依据和指导方向性，有利于平抑物价上涨，稳定房地产价格。因此这个研究方向是有较大的理论价值和现实意义的。本文的结构安排是：首先，在介绍国内外研究成果的基础上，阐述通货膨胀和房价波动的相关理论；其次，在对国内房价与物价的现实情况予以介绍与分析后，重点探讨房价波动对通货膨胀的具体传导途径及相应的影响模型；最后，通过数据整理和实证分析得出我国房价波动与通货膨胀之间的计量关系，并依据理论和实证结果提供政策建议。
[Abstract]:The pursuit of price stability is one of the main goals of national macro-control. Once serious inflation occurs, it will not only destroy the economic development, but also affect the social stability. The price of real estate is directly linked to the living conditions of the residents and relates to the people's livelihood. The fluctuation of the real estate price also directly affects the level of social investment, consumption level and gross national product. At present, China's current situation is that, on the one hand, the price level continues to rise, inflation pressure continues to expand; on the other hand, since the state abolished the distribution of welfare housing in 1998, the real estate industry has developed rapidly, house prices have risen sharply, and the tendency to bubble has intensified. Therefore, housing price inflation and inflation are the focus of national macro-control. In recent years, the state has adopted a series of macro-control policies to respond to the rising real estate prices and price levels, indicating that the government attaches importance to price management and macro-control of real estate, and is worried about the emergence of serious real estate bubbles and inflation. This paper chooses the scope of study as the transmission mechanism of house price fluctuation to inflation, rather than simply expounding the correlation between the two, which is not only to discuss the mechanism of asset price and price influence, but also to sort out the relationship between financial economy and real economy. On the one hand, it is helpful to perfect the research results on the transmission mechanism of both, and to further promote the academic research on the relationship between the financial economy and the real economy. On the other hand, straightening out the transmission process between the two is helpful to clarify the strong correlation between house price fluctuation and inflation, which provides the theoretical basis and direction for the monetary authorities to formulate and implement effective and targeted macro-control policies. It is helpful to stabilize the price rise and stabilize the real estate price. Therefore, this research direction is of great theoretical value and practical significance. The structure of this paper is as follows: first, on the basis of introducing the domestic and foreign research results, expound the related theories of inflation and house price fluctuation; Secondly, after introducing and analyzing the real situation of domestic house price and price, the paper mainly discusses the specific conduction way and the corresponding influence model of the fluctuation of house price to inflation; Finally, through data collation and empirical analysis, this paper draws a quantitative relationship between house price fluctuation and inflation in China, and provides policy recommendations based on theoretical and empirical results.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F299.23

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