关于我国外汇储备安全问题的思考

发布时间：2018-11-25 08:03

【摘要】：本文认为,一国外汇储备出现安全问题主要有两方面原因:一是外汇收支连续赤字,以致外汇储备大幅下降;二是所持有的外汇储备不断贬值,导致外汇储备价值降低。要保证我国外汇储备安全,必须双管齐下。第一,加强自主创新,抓紧产业升级和产品升级,在新能源、新材料、生物科技、环保产业等方面寻求新突破,提高我国商品的出口竞争力,同时大力发展旅游等服务业,创造更适于外资进入的投资环境,防止民间资本非正常性地大量外流,以保证国际贸易收支平衡,保证外汇储备不至于大幅下降。第二,优化外汇储备结构,增加外汇黄金储备和外汇资产储备,利用外汇储备作为信贷资金对外贷款,带动产品出口、工程承包、劳务输出等,带动国内经济,利用外币进口先进设备、短缺原材料和燃料,进行海外投资,藏汇于民,以保证外汇储备保值增值。此外,还应进一步研究如何消除人民币小步升值、缓慢升值的不利影响,如何建立符合新型发展中国家现状的、合理的外汇储备量标准,怎样建立外汇储备安全预警机制等问题,加强对与我国联系较多的国家币值变动趋势和汇率决定理论的研究。
[Abstract]:This paper holds that there are two main reasons for the security of a country's foreign exchange reserves: one is the continuous deficit of foreign exchange revenue and expenditure, the other is that the foreign exchange reserves are falling sharply, and the value of foreign exchange reserves is decreasing as a result of the depreciation of the foreign exchange reserves held. In order to ensure the safety of our foreign exchange reserves, we must go both ways. First, we should strengthen independent innovation, step up industrial upgrading and product upgrading, seek new breakthroughs in new energy sources, new materials, biotechnology, and environmental protection industries, improve the export competitiveness of our country's commodities, and vigorously develop services such as tourism. We should create a more suitable investment environment for foreign capital to prevent a large and irregular outflow of private capital so as to ensure the balance of international trade balance and ensure that foreign exchange reserves do not drop substantially. Second, we should optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves, increase foreign exchange gold reserves and foreign exchange assets reserves, use foreign exchange reserves as credit funds to lend to foreign countries, and promote the export of products, construction contracts, labor services, and so on, so as to drive the domestic economy. Using foreign currency to import advanced equipment, shortage of raw materials and fuel, overseas investment, foreign exchange, to ensure the value of foreign exchange reserves. In addition, we should further study how to eliminate the adverse effects of the small step appreciation and slow appreciation of the RMB, and how to establish a reasonable foreign exchange reserve standard that conforms to the current situation of new developing countries. How to set up the forewarning mechanism of foreign exchange reserve security and strengthen the research on the trend of currency change and the theory of exchange rate determination which have more relation with our country.
【作者单位】：北京大学光华管理学院;
【分类号】：F832.6

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