美国量化宽松货币政策对中国通货膨胀的溢出效应研究

发布时间：2018-12-20 22:31

【摘要】：2009年底至2011年我国经历了新一轮通货膨胀,如2011年各月的涨幅在4.9%以上,且连续4个月的CPI涨幅都超过6%。而在这段时间,美国、英国、欧盟等国家为稳定金融体系,实现经济复苏而纷纷采取量化宽松货币政策。针对本轮通货膨胀,很多学者有一个共同的观点：此轮通货膨胀有明显的输入性特征,而且查看研究本轮通货膨胀的文献,发现基本上所有文献都不约而同的在文章里表达一个观点：量化宽松货币政策是中国本轮通货膨胀形成的重要诱因。本文站在前人对输入性通货膨胀和量化宽松货币政策相关研究的基础上,充分运用了静态分析和比较静态分析、理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,对“量化宽松货币政策对中国通货膨胀的溢出效应研究”这一问题,从理论发展与实践应用进行了全方面和深入的研究及论述。本文基于量化宽松货币政策的视角,以2009年-2011年的这轮通货膨胀为出发点,研究了量化宽松货币政策对我国通货膨胀溢出效应的传导机制。全文结构按照以下逻辑路径层层展开：首先,从理论上分析了量化宽松货币政策对输入性通货膨胀溢出效应的传导途径,并从国内外获取大量数据,进行现实考察；然后,以货币政策的政策工具和政策目标为落脚点,选取相关指标从实证上研究美国量化宽松货币政策对中国输入性通货膨胀的溢出效应进行实证分析,得出在三条传导路径当中,贸易传导途径十分清晰,利率传导途径不畅通,而货币扩张导途径比较清晰。最后,在理论和实证分析的基础上,从多角度就中国如何应对各国所采取的量化宽松货币政策,如何治理其可能带来的输入性通货膨胀,如何降低其带来的不利影响,从而保持本国经济平稳的增长和金融系统的稳定,而提出了对策建议。
[Abstract]:From the end of 2009 to 2011, China experienced a new round of inflation, such as the increase of 4. 9% in each month of 2011, and the increase of CPI for 4 months in a row exceeded 6. 5%. During this period, countries such as the United States, Britain and the European Union have adopted quantitative easing to stabilize the financial system and achieve economic recovery. Many scholars have a common view on this round of inflation: this round of inflation has obvious input characteristics, and a review of the literature on the current round of inflation, It is found that almost all the literature has expressed the same view in the article: quantitative easing monetary policy is an important cause of inflation in China. On the basis of previous studies on imported inflation and quantitative easing monetary policy, this paper makes full use of the methods of static analysis and comparative static analysis, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. The problem of "the spillover effect of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's inflation" is discussed from the theoretical development and practical application. Based on the perspective of quantitative easing monetary policy and the inflation from 2009 to 2011, this paper studies the transmission mechanism of spillover effect of quantitative easing monetary policy on inflation in China. The structure of the thesis is carried out in the following logical ways: firstly, the paper theoretically analyzes the transmission way of quantitative easing monetary policy to the spillover effect of imported inflation, and obtains a large amount of data from home and abroad to conduct a realistic investigation; Then, based on the policy tools and policy objectives of monetary policy, this paper selects relevant indicators to empirically study the spillover effect of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's imported inflation. It is concluded that among the three transmission paths, the trade transmission path is very clear, the interest rate transmission path is not smooth, and the monetary expansion path is clear. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper discusses from various angles how China should deal with the quantitative easing monetary policy adopted by various countries, how to manage the possible imported inflation and how to reduce its adverse effects. In order to maintain stable economic growth and the stability of the financial system, and put forward countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F827.12

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