外商直接投资（FDI）对中国国际收支的影响研究

发布时间：2018-12-26 07:31

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国一直实行积极的招商引资政策。在该政策的带动下，外商直接投资纷纷进入中国，对我国经济的发展起到了极大的推动作用，外资显然已经成为我国经济发展不可或缺的一部分。外资进入初期，由于投资额尚小，其对我国国际收支的影响不明显。20世纪末尤其是21世纪初，随着我国对外开放政策的推进，外商直接投资流入明显增加，伴随着的是我国国际收支结构的变化，经常项目和资本与金融项目持续“双顺差”。如今，我国劳动力成本上的优势逐渐被东南亚等国取代，，国内经济增长放缓，外商直接投资也开始出现下降趋势。在这样的背景下，研究FDI对我国国际收支的影响非常具有现实意义。本文首先对国内外有关国际直接投资对国际收支影响的研究进行了梳理，试图将两者置于同一分析框架下，从而奠定文章的理论基础。然后，就FDI对我国国际收支的影响进行了理论分析。概括总结了FDI影响一国国际收支的各种渠道，并分析了不同渠道间可能的联系，进而得出FDI对国际收支的影响机制。分析表明：FDI主要通过贸易和资本流动渠道来影响国际收支。外商投资企业的加工贸易是经常项目顺差的主要原因，而外资企业投资收益汇回则会缩窄经常项目顺差；而在资本项目尚未完全放开的背景下，FDI对我国资本与金融项目顺差的促进作用是显而易见的。接着，本文通过建立计量模型，选取1985-2011年间外商直接投资以及与其密切相关的国际收支项目数据，采取协整技术进行回归分析，从而得出长期内FDI会对我国国际收支主要项目所带来的可能影响。最后，根据本文的理论研究和实证结果，联系目前实际情况，得出FDI对我国国际收支影响的结论，从调整引资结构、加强统计监测等方面提出相应的政策建议，并最终展望了该研究今后的发展方向。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has been implementing an active investment policy. Under the impetus of this policy, foreign direct investment has entered China one after another, which has played a great role in promoting the economic development of our country, and foreign capital has obviously become an indispensable part of the economic development of our country. In the early stage of foreign investment, because of the small amount of investment, the impact on China's balance of payments is not obvious. At the end of the 20th century, especially at the beginning of the 21st century, with the development of China's opening policy, the inflow of foreign direct investment increased significantly. Along with the change of China's balance of payments structure, the current account and capital and financial account continue to "double surplus". Nowadays, China's labor cost advantage is gradually replaced by Southeast Asia and other countries, the domestic economic growth is slowing, and foreign direct investment (FDI) is also beginning to decline. In this context, the study of the impact of FDI on China's balance of payments is of great practical significance. In this paper, the domestic and foreign research on the impact of FDI on the balance of payments is first reviewed, and the theoretical basis of the article is established by putting both of them under the same analytical framework. Then, the influence of FDI on China's balance of payments is analyzed theoretically. This paper summarizes the various channels through which FDI affects a country's balance of payments, and analyzes the possible relations between different channels, and then concludes the mechanism of FDI's influence on the balance of payments. The analysis shows that FDI mainly influences the balance of payments through the channels of trade and capital flow. The processing trade of foreign-invested enterprises is the main reason of the surplus of current account, while the return of investment income of foreign-funded enterprises will narrow the surplus of current account. However, under the background that the capital account has not been completely liberalized, the role of FDI in promoting China's surplus of capital and financial items is obvious. Then, through the establishment of the measurement model, this paper selects the data of foreign direct investment (FDI) and its closely related balance of payments project from 1985 to 2011, and adopts cointegration technology to carry out regression analysis. Thus, the possible impact of FDI on the main items of China's balance of payments in the long term is obtained. Finally, according to the theoretical research and empirical results of this paper, combined with the current actual situation, the conclusion of the impact of FDI on China's balance of payments is drawn, and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward from adjusting the structure of attracting capital, strengthening statistical monitoring and so on. Finally, the future development of the research is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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