人民币汇率升值对山东省农产品进出口的影响分析
发布时间：2019-01-17 08:45
【摘要】：近年来,有关人民币汇率升值的问题普遍成为国内外各界关注的热点,尤其金融危机之后,汇率升值成为中国贸易不可忽视的因素之一。2005年7月21日,中国人民银行发布公告宣布我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节的、有管理的浮动汇率制度,人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,形成更富弹性的人民币汇率机制,同时人民币对美元升值百分之二,即美元对人民币交易价格调整为1美元兑换8.11元人民币,人民币汇率的升值进程拉开序幕。尽管人民币兑美元的汇率自2005年汇率改革以来持续上升,从“突破8”一直迈向现在的“奔6时代”,但是由于美元大幅度贬值的背景,且综合国际国内各因素的考虑,众多的学者认为人民币仍承受巨大的升值压力,人民币升值已然是必然趋势,截止到2011年人民币兑换美元汇率为1美元兑换6.34元人民币。人民币升值对我国的不同产业影响各异,农产品进出口是关乎中国民生的重要的传统产业,山东省作为中国农产品出口最多的省份在我国农产品出口贸易中扮演了举足轻重的角色,农产品出口贸易对山东省解决社会就业、民计民生、实现可持续发展至关重要。因此探求人民币升值与农产品进出口之间的内在联系对于把握农产品出口创汇及制定出口贸易决策有着积极的指导意义。就笔者目前掌握的资料来看,经典理论文献对人民币升值问题的研究主要集中在以下两个方面：第一,针对人民币是否应该升值的讨论；第二,人民币升值以后带来的种种影响。有关第二个方面的研究集中从我国的经济总量、进出口贸易总额、贸易结构以及就业等这些宏观角度进行理论分析和实证分析。至于人民币对某个具体行业的影响研究比较匮乏,尤其是专门针对省域农产品出口的研究。因此基于山东省农产品出口在中国农产品出口中的特殊地位,本文立足理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法,探求人民币升值与山东省农产品进出口之间的关系。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of RMB exchange rate appreciation has generally become the focus of attention at home and abroad, especially after the financial crisis, exchange rate appreciation has become one of the factors that can not be ignored in China's trade. The people's Bank of China announced in a public announcement that China will begin to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate will no longer be pegged to a single dollar. With a more flexible exchange rate regime and a 2% yuan appreciation against the dollar, the dollar is trading at 8.11 yuan against the dollar, the start of the appreciation process. Although the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been rising continuously since the exchange rate reform in 2005 and has been moving from "breakthrough 8" to the current "age of six", but due to the background of the substantial depreciation of the US dollar and the consideration of various international and domestic factors, Many scholars believe that the yuan is still under tremendous pressure to appreciate, which is already an inevitable trend, with the yuan trading at 6.34 yuan to the dollar as of 2011. The appreciation of the RMB has different effects on different industries in China. The import and export of agricultural products is an important traditional industry related to the people's livelihood of China. Shandong Province, as the province with the most agricultural products export, plays an important role in the agricultural product export trade of our country. The agricultural product export trade plays an important role in solving the social employment, the people's livelihood and realizing the sustainable development in Shandong Province. Therefore, to explore the internal relationship between RMB appreciation and agricultural products import and export has a positive guiding significance to grasp the export of agricultural products to earn foreign exchange and to make export trade decisions. According to the data that the author has at present, the research on the appreciation of RMB mainly focuses on the following two aspects: first, the discussion on whether the RMB should be revalued; Second, the RMB appreciation after the various effects. The second aspect focuses on the theoretical and empirical analysis from the macro perspectives of China's total economic volume, total import and export trade, trade structure and employment. As for the impact of RMB on a specific industry, especially for the export of provincial agricultural products. Therefore, based on the special position of Shandong agricultural products export in China, this paper explores the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the import and export of agricultural products in Shandong Province based on the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6;F323.7;F224
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of RMB exchange rate appreciation has generally become the focus of attention at home and abroad, especially after the financial crisis, exchange rate appreciation has become one of the factors that can not be ignored in China's trade. The people's Bank of China announced in a public announcement that China will begin to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate will no longer be pegged to a single dollar. With a more flexible exchange rate regime and a 2% yuan appreciation against the dollar, the dollar is trading at 8.11 yuan against the dollar, the start of the appreciation process. Although the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been rising continuously since the exchange rate reform in 2005 and has been moving from "breakthrough 8" to the current "age of six", but due to the background of the substantial depreciation of the US dollar and the consideration of various international and domestic factors, Many scholars believe that the yuan is still under tremendous pressure to appreciate, which is already an inevitable trend, with the yuan trading at 6.34 yuan to the dollar as of 2011. The appreciation of the RMB has different effects on different industries in China. The import and export of agricultural products is an important traditional industry related to the people's livelihood of China. Shandong Province, as the province with the most agricultural products export, plays an important role in the agricultural product export trade of our country. The agricultural product export trade plays an important role in solving the social employment, the people's livelihood and realizing the sustainable development in Shandong Province. Therefore, to explore the internal relationship between RMB appreciation and agricultural products import and export has a positive guiding significance to grasp the export of agricultural products to earn foreign exchange and to make export trade decisions. According to the data that the author has at present, the research on the appreciation of RMB mainly focuses on the following two aspects: first, the discussion on whether the RMB should be revalued; Second, the RMB appreciation after the various effects. The second aspect focuses on the theoretical and empirical analysis from the macro perspectives of China's total economic volume, total import and export trade, trade structure and employment. As for the impact of RMB on a specific industry, especially for the export of provincial agricultural products. Therefore, based on the special position of Shandong agricultural products export in China, this paper explores the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the import and export of agricultural products in Shandong Province based on the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6;F323.7;F224
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