微型企业信贷违约风险的影响因素——对安徽省亳州市农村信用社的调查

发布时间：2019-01-21 07:07

【摘要】：本文在对安徽亳州农村信用社实地调查的基础上,利用Logistic模型对微型企业信贷违约的微观影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明:微型企业所处地理位置对违约风险影响显著,地处城区企业的违约概率小于地处乡镇和农村地区的企业,即区位优势对企业的经营有很大影响;贷款用途对企业违约风险影响显著,即将贷款用于流动资金周转的风险小于购买固定资产;贷款金额和期限对违约风险影响显著,即贷款数额越大,期限越长,违约风险越大;企业负责人受教育程度对违约风险影响显著,即负责人受教育程度越高,违约风险越小;另外,女性负责人的违约概率低于男性负责人。
[Abstract]:Based on the field investigation of rural credit cooperatives in Bozhou, Anhui province, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the microcosmic influencing factors of micro-enterprise credit default by using Logistic model. The results show that the geographical location of micro-enterprises has a significant impact on default risk. The probability of default of enterprises located in urban areas is smaller than that in towns and rural areas, that is, location advantages have a great impact on the management of enterprises; The use of loans has a significant impact on the risk of enterprise default, that is, the risk of using loans for working capital turnover is less than that of purchasing fixed assets, the amount and duration of loans have a significant impact on the risk of default, that is, the larger the amount of loans, the longer the maturity, the greater the risk of default. The higher the level of education, the smaller the risk of default, and the lower the probability of default of female head is compared with that of male leader.
【作者单位】：山东工商学院经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“基于风险分担机制变迁的美国次贷危机形成与扩散机理及其启示研究”(09BJL037) 山东省自然科学基金项目“基于金融体系风险分担机制变迁的银行经营模式转型与银行安全”(Y2008H34) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目“基于风险分担机制变迁的国际金融危机与我国金融安全”(09YJA790123)
【分类号】：F832.35

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