亚洲“四小龙”外汇储备增长的理论与实证研究——基于新加坡数据的实证检验

发布时间：2019-01-26 13:34

【摘要】：从20世纪60年代以来,亚洲"四小龙"承接了发达国家移出的产业,从根本上改变了传统工业的生产函数,经济实力逐年增强,在世界贸易中份额上升,出口增长,贸易顺差增多。亚洲"四小龙"经济运行的良好表现,亦吸引了国际资本的流入,进而造成了国家外汇储备的增长。本文基于新加坡数据的实证检验得出结论:承接发达国家转移的产业,使新加坡制造业出口迅猛发展,从而导致经常项目顺差,引发其外汇储备迅速增长。在今后的较长一段时期内,亚洲"四小龙"外汇储备还将处于高水平并仍将继续增加,这是亚洲"四小龙"产业升级换代过程中必经的一个发展阶段,同时也是其他发展中经济体现在或者不久的将来在承接国际产业转移过程中将要发生的现象,从某种程度上说,这是一条国际经济规律。
[Abstract]:Since the 1960s, the "four Little Dragons" in Asia have taken over industries moved from developed countries, fundamentally changing the production function of traditional industries, increasing their economic strength year by year, increasing their share in world trade and increasing their exports. The trade surplus has increased. The good performance of the four Little Dragons in Asia has also attracted international capital inflows, which has resulted in the growth of the country's foreign exchange reserves. Based on the empirical test of Singapore data, this paper draws a conclusion: to undertake the industry transferred from developed countries, Singapore's manufacturing exports develop rapidly, which leads to the surplus of current account and the rapid growth of its foreign exchange reserve. In a relatively long period of time in the future, the foreign exchange reserves of Asia's "four little dragons" will still be at a high level and will continue to increase, which is a necessary stage of development in the process of upgrading the "four little dragons" industries in Asia. At the same time, it is also a phenomenon that will happen in the process of undertaking international industrial transfer in other developing economies now or in the near future. To some extent, this is an international economic law.
【作者单位】：长沙理工大学经济与管理学院;湖南商学院经济与贸易发展研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(70971013) 湖南省社科基金项目(09YBA002) 湖南省杰出青年基金(09JJ1010) 湖南省现代流通理论研究基地招标课题(CTA092)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F833.39

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