中国中央银行票据有效性研究

发布时间：2019-01-26 15:33

【摘要】：中国自2001年12月11日加入WTO以来，对外开放程度不断深入，中央银行所面临国内外的经济金融形势也逐渐复杂化，执行货币政策的难度也有所增大。目前，经历了次贷危机、欧债危机之后，全球经济复苏缓慢。部分国家仍面临严重的通货膨胀，同时承受着短期资本大量进出的风险，仍潜在爆发下一次危机的可能；国内的通货膨胀压力刚有所减轻，经济逐渐恢复快速增长。在这种背景下，，增加了我国中央银行的政策操作的难度。而央行票据作为频繁使用的政策工具是较灵活、高流动性的，其有效性对于政策目标的实现有很重要的影响。但随着央票发行量的加大，出现的问题也越来越多，对于中央银行票据有效性的质疑也越来越多。有些学者认为央行票据终将被国债等其他政策工具所取代，它只是一个过渡的产物，不可能持续下去。还有人认为银行票据所面临的利息支付的逐渐增大，使得其发行对于回笼货币的作用很小。文章首先对中央银行票据的产生背景以及作为公开市场操作工具的优势和局限性进行了分析，认为中央银行票据是存在一定的局限性，但其优势也是显而易见的。只要合理的运用，还是能有效地控制货币供应量，进而到达保证经济平稳较快增长的政策目标；其次，分析了中央银行票据与货币供应量、基准利率的关系；再次，基于中国人民银行公布的2005年—2011年的统计数据，建立VAR模型，用实证证明了中央银行票据余额对货币供应量和利率存在一定影响，但效果不是很明显；最后，提出了改进央行票据有效性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since China joined the WTO on December 11, 2001, the degree of opening to the outside world has been deepening, the economic and financial situation of the central bank at home and abroad has become more and more complicated, and the difficulty of carrying out monetary policy has also increased. At present, after the subprime mortgage crisis, the European debt crisis, the global economic recovery is slow. Some countries are still facing severe inflation and the risk of a large inflow of short-term capital and the potential for a next crisis; inflationary pressures at home have just eased and the economy is gradually returning to rapid growth. In this context, it increases the difficulty of the policy operation of our central bank. As a frequently used policy tool, central bank paper is flexible and highly liquid, and its effectiveness has an important impact on the realization of policy objectives. However, with the increasing issuance of central bank bills, there are more and more questions about the validity of central bank bills. Some scholars argue that central bank paper will eventually be replaced by other policy instruments, such as government bonds, as a product of transition and unlikely to last. Others argue that bank notes face a gradual increase in interest payments, making their issuance of money less useful. This paper first analyzes the background of central bank bills and its advantages and limitations as an open market operation tool, and concludes that central bank bills have some limitations, but their advantages are also obvious. As long as the reasonable use can effectively control the money supply and then reach the policy goal of ensuring steady and rapid economic growth. Secondly, the relationship between central bank bills and money supply, benchmark interest rate is analyzed. Thirdly, based on the statistics published by the people's Bank of China from 2005 to 2011, the VAR model is established, which proves that the central bank bill balance has some influence on the money supply and interest rate, but the effect is not obvious. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the validity of central bank bills.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.31;F224

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