我国房地产泡沫与通货膨胀关系的实证研究
发布时间：2019-01-29 21:08
【摘要】：房地产泡沫会严重影响金融系统的稳定和社会经济的健康发展，严重的通货膨胀不仅会破坏社会经济的稳定发展，而且会影响社会安定。近几年来，伴随着我国房地产市场的迅猛发展，房地产价格快速上涨；同时，我国的物价水平也持续上升，通货膨胀预期增强。国家针对不断上涨的房地产价格与物价水平，采取了一系列的宏观调控政策，说明中央政府担心我国出现严重的房地产泡沫和通货膨胀。 本文在吸收国内外研究成果的基础上，首先从理论上分析房地产泡沫与通货膨胀之间的关系，然后把规范分析与实证分析相结合，，研究我国房地产泡沫和通货膨胀的现状，基于VAR模型分析我国房地产泡沫与通货膨胀之间的长期均衡关系与短期波动之间的相互作用。根据我国的实际情况，借鉴欧美债务危机的教训，提出了一些防止我国房地产泡沫和通货膨胀的政策建议。 本文由六个部分组成。第一章是绪论，对于选题背景和意义、国内外文献综述、研究思路、研究方法以及创新点进行了阐述。第二章主要研究房地产泡沫和通货膨胀两者之间的相关关系，通过分析房地产泡沫对通货膨胀产生影响的作用机制是通过托宾Ｑ效应、财富效应和金融加速器效应来影响投资和消费，进而影响通货膨胀；通货膨胀通过影响房地产市场的需求与供给来影响房地产泡沫指数，揭示了房地产价格与通货膨胀之间相互作用的传导途径及两者的成因皆为流动性过剩。第三章主要根据美国次贷危机和欧洲债务危机中房地产泡沫与通货膨胀之间的关系，对上一章的理论进行实证检验并得出结论：这两次危机都出现了房地产泡沫破灭现象，并引发了更大的金融危机或主权债务危机，究其根源都是货币流动性过剩的缘故。本章还分析了这两个国际案例对我国的启示。第四章对我国近年来的房地产泡沫和通货膨胀现象以及产生的主要原因进行了分析。第五章是实证分析，基于VAR模型分析了房地产泡沫系数与通货膨胀之间的长期均衡关系与短期波动的相互作用，指出房地产泡沫的膨胀对物价上涨在短期内和长期内对物价影响均为正相关，但短期内房地产泡沫对物价水平的正向影响并不十分明显，长期影响显著。文章最后一部分结合理论分析与实证分析的结论，根据我国的实际情况，给出了一些防止房地产泡沫和通货膨胀的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Real estate bubble will seriously affect the stability of financial system and the healthy development of social economy. Serious inflation will not only destroy the stable development of social economy, but also affect social stability. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's real estate market, real estate prices are rising rapidly. In view of the rising real estate prices and price levels, the state has adopted a series of macro-control policies, indicating that the central government is worried about the emergence of a serious real estate bubble and inflation in China. On the basis of absorbing the domestic and foreign research results, this paper first theoretically analyzes the relationship between real estate bubble and inflation, then combines normative analysis with empirical analysis to study the current situation of real estate bubble and inflation in China. Based on the VAR model, this paper analyzes the interaction between the long term equilibrium relationship between real estate bubble and inflation and the short term fluctuation. According to the actual situation of our country and drawing lessons from the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to prevent the real estate bubble and inflation in our country. This paper consists of six parts. The first chapter is the introduction, the background and significance of the topic, domestic and foreign literature review, research ideas, research methods and innovative points are described. The second chapter mainly studies the relationship between real estate bubble and inflation, through the analysis of the real estate bubble impact on inflation mechanism is through the Tobin Q effect, Wealth effect and financial accelerator effect to affect investment and consumption, and then affect inflation; Inflation affects the real estate bubble index by influencing the demand and supply of the real estate market, which reveals the conduction way of the interaction between the real estate price and inflation and the cause of both the excess liquidity. The third chapter is mainly based on the relationship between the real estate bubble and inflation in the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the debt crisis in Europe, and makes an empirical test of the theory in the previous chapter and draws a conclusion that the real estate bubble burst in these two crises. And caused a greater financial crisis or sovereign debt crisis, the root causes of excess monetary liquidity. This chapter also analyzes the inspiration of these two international cases to China. Chapter four analyzes the real estate bubble and inflation in recent years. The fifth chapter is empirical analysis, based on the VAR model to analyze the real estate bubble coefficient and inflation between the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term volatility interaction, It is pointed out that the inflation of the real estate bubble has a positive correlation with the price rise in the short and long term, but the positive effect of the real estate bubble on the price level is not very obvious in the short term. In the last part of the paper, combining the conclusions of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, and according to the actual situation of our country, we give some relevant policy suggestions to prevent real estate bubble and inflation.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F293.3;F822.5;F224
[Abstract]:Real estate bubble will seriously affect the stability of financial system and the healthy development of social economy. Serious inflation will not only destroy the stable development of social economy, but also affect social stability. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's real estate market, real estate prices are rising rapidly. In view of the rising real estate prices and price levels, the state has adopted a series of macro-control policies, indicating that the central government is worried about the emergence of a serious real estate bubble and inflation in China. On the basis of absorbing the domestic and foreign research results, this paper first theoretically analyzes the relationship between real estate bubble and inflation, then combines normative analysis with empirical analysis to study the current situation of real estate bubble and inflation in China. Based on the VAR model, this paper analyzes the interaction between the long term equilibrium relationship between real estate bubble and inflation and the short term fluctuation. According to the actual situation of our country and drawing lessons from the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to prevent the real estate bubble and inflation in our country. This paper consists of six parts. The first chapter is the introduction, the background and significance of the topic, domestic and foreign literature review, research ideas, research methods and innovative points are described. The second chapter mainly studies the relationship between real estate bubble and inflation, through the analysis of the real estate bubble impact on inflation mechanism is through the Tobin Q effect, Wealth effect and financial accelerator effect to affect investment and consumption, and then affect inflation; Inflation affects the real estate bubble index by influencing the demand and supply of the real estate market, which reveals the conduction way of the interaction between the real estate price and inflation and the cause of both the excess liquidity. The third chapter is mainly based on the relationship between the real estate bubble and inflation in the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the debt crisis in Europe, and makes an empirical test of the theory in the previous chapter and draws a conclusion that the real estate bubble burst in these two crises. And caused a greater financial crisis or sovereign debt crisis, the root causes of excess monetary liquidity. This chapter also analyzes the inspiration of these two international cases to China. Chapter four analyzes the real estate bubble and inflation in recent years. The fifth chapter is empirical analysis, based on the VAR model to analyze the real estate bubble coefficient and inflation between the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term volatility interaction, It is pointed out that the inflation of the real estate bubble has a positive correlation with the price rise in the short and long term, but the positive effect of the real estate bubble on the price level is not very obvious in the short term. In the last part of the paper, combining the conclusions of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, and according to the actual situation of our country, we give some relevant policy suggestions to prevent real estate bubble and inflation.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F293.3;F822.5;F224
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