我国通货膨胀对农村贫困脆弱性的影响研究

发布时间：2019-02-23 17:53

【摘要】：贫困脆弱性，作为一个描述个体或家庭未来陷入贫困的可能性的前瞻性概念，已经成为当前贫困研究中的热点。贫困是一个动态的过程，目前不处于贫困状态的个体或家庭可能因为遭受某种冲击而在将来陷入贫困，还有一些群体虽然暂时处于贫困状态但很快会脱离贫困，当然也可能陷入更深的贫困。大量研究表明，贫困人口或低收入人口面临比一般人更多、更强的风险，而且他们抵抗风险的能力较弱，更容易受到风险的冲击和影响，在风险面前表现得更加脆弱。因此，从脆弱性的角度研究贫困问题，不仅为我们分析贫困成因提供了一个新的视角,而且也为反贫困提供了新的思路。造成贫困脆弱性冲击的因素有很多，如收入冲击、疾病冲击、物价冲击等。其中，通货膨胀作为物价变动的一种最常见表现形式，对低收入群体或贫困群体有着重要影响。自2007年初以来，中国经历了新一轮的通货膨胀，相关研究表明，受到物价变化影响最大的往往是低收入人群和贫困家庭，持续过快的物价上涨抬高了居民的生活成本，严重影响了人民生活水平的提升。这不仅使现有贫困人口变得更加贫困，还会使那些收入位于贫困线附近的非贫困人口重新陷入贫困。通货膨胀作为重要的外部风险之一，应该受到反贫困研究者的重视。由于我国的贫困群体主要集中在农村，因此本文仅选择农村居民作为研究对象。鉴于此，本文针对通货膨胀对农村贫困脆弱性具有什么样的影响这个问题展开探讨。本文首先从理论方面确立研究基础，，通过对国内外相关文献资料进行系统的分析和梳理，整合贫困脆弱性测度的方法体系；然后在对CHNS数据进行整理的基础上，考虑特定百分位的农村居民消费价格指数，分别计算剔除价格因素前后的贫困脆弱性，并对测度结果进行分析和评估；最后，从性别、年龄、受教育程度三个角度测度了具有不同人口学特征群体的贫困脆弱性，从而进一步明晰哪些群体更易因为通货膨胀的冲击而造成更大贫困脆弱性。在上述研究的基础上，本文还提出了相应的政策建议。本文的主要结论如下：①穷人面临着更大的贫困脆弱性，而通货膨胀对处于脆弱群体的负向冲击效果最为明显，；②我国农村居民所面临的贫困脆弱性存在较明显的性别差异，女性在物价冲击风险面前显得更加脆弱，更容易陷入贫困或持续贫困；③随着年龄的增长，贫困脆弱性逐渐增加，受到通货膨胀的不利冲击也逐渐加大；④个体受教育程度越高，其面临的贫困脆弱性越低，同时受通货膨胀的冲击作用也越小。
[Abstract]:Poverty vulnerability, as a forward-looking concept that describes the possibility of individual or family falling into poverty in the future, has become a hot topic in current poverty research. Poverty is a dynamic process in which individuals or families who are not currently in a state of poverty may fall into poverty in the future as a result of some kind of shock. Of course, it is possible to fall deeper into poverty. A large number of studies show that the poor or low-income people face more and stronger risks than the general population, and they are less able to resist risks, are more vulnerable to the impact and impact of risks, and are more vulnerable to risk. Therefore, the study of poverty from the perspective of vulnerability not only provides a new perspective for us to analyze the causes of poverty, but also provides a new way of thinking for anti-poverty. There are many factors that cause the vulnerability of poverty, such as income shock, disease impact, price shock and so on. Inflation, as the most common form of price change, has an important impact on low income groups or poor groups. Since the beginning of 2007, China has experienced a new round of inflation, and related studies show that the most affected by the price changes are often low-income people and poor families. Seriously affected the people's living standards. This will not only make the existing poor even poorer, but also return those who earn near the poverty line to poverty. As one of the important external risks, inflation should be paid more attention by anti-poverty researchers. Because the poverty group of our country is mainly concentrated in the countryside, this paper chooses only the rural residents as the research object. In view of this, this paper discusses the impact of inflation on the vulnerability of rural poverty. This paper firstly establishes the research foundation from the theory aspect, through the systematic analysis and combing to the domestic and foreign related literature and materials, integrates the poverty vulnerability measure method system; Then, on the basis of the CHNS data, considering the specific percentile consumption price index of rural residents, the poverty vulnerability before and after excluding price factors is calculated, and the measurement results are analyzed and evaluated. Finally, this paper measures the vulnerability to poverty of groups with different demographic characteristics from the perspectives of gender, age and education, and further clarifies which groups are more vulnerable to poverty vulnerability due to the impact of inflation. On the basis of the above research, this paper also puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the poor are facing greater vulnerability to poverty, and the negative impact of inflation on vulnerable groups is the most obvious; (2) there are obvious gender differences in the vulnerability of rural residents to poverty, and women are more vulnerable to the risk of price shock and are more likely to fall into poverty or continue to be poor; (3) with the increase of age, the vulnerability of poverty increases gradually, and so does the adverse impact of inflation; 4 the higher the level of education, the lower the vulnerability to poverty and the smaller the impact of inflation.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F323.8;F224

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