汇率变动对我国家电、纺织和计算机行业的影响

发布时间：2019-03-04 17:33

【摘要】：2001年随着我国加入世界贸易组织,我国对外贸易呈现了快速增长势头。作为推动我国经济发展的三驾马车之一,2001-2010年进口和出口均复合增长率分别达到21.40%和21.86%；同时随着我国对外贸易的快速发展,我国对对外贸易的依存度也随之加强,2010年我国对外贸易依存度为49.15%。然而,对外贸易的快速发展也给我国经济带来了较大的不确定性。扩大的国际贸易顺差加剧了我国的贸易摩擦,也给人民币带来了巨大的升值压力。2005年汇改以来,人民币开始进入升值通道,到2010年为止已经累计升值25.58%,特别是2008年的金融危机导致全球经济体受到重创,需求疲软,同时也导致了我国出口的急剧下滑。在这样的背景下研究汇率变动对于我国出口行业的影响有着十分重要的意义。本文将选取纺织、家电和计算机工业上累计递进的三个行业作为代表,研究汇率变动对于我国出口行业产生的影响,同时提出相关的政策建议。本文选取2000-2009年的纺织、家电和计算机产品出口年度数据为样本,从传统经典的国际收支理论出发并运用实证方法对人民币汇率变动对于三个行业出口的影响进行了实证分析。并对这三个行业出口造成影响的差异性进行了比较分析,以揭示汇率变动对于我国劳动密集型产业和知识与技术密集型产业的不同影响,并对我国的产业结构发展作出相应的建议。
[Abstract]:With China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China's foreign trade has shown a rapid growth momentum. As one of the troika to promote China's economic development, the compound growth rate of imports and exports in 2001-2010 reached 21.40% and 21.86% respectively. At the same time, with the rapid development of China's foreign trade, the degree of dependence on foreign trade is strengthened. In 2010, the dependence degree of China's foreign trade is 49.15%. However, the rapid development of foreign trade also brings greater uncertainty to our economy. The enlarged international trade surplus has exacerbated China's trade frictions and brought enormous pressure for the RMB to appreciate. Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB has begun to enter the appreciation channel, and by 2010 it has appreciated by 25.58%. In particular, the 2008 financial crisis caused severe damage to the global economy, weak demand, but also led to a sharp decline in our exports. In this context, it is of great significance to study the influence of exchange rate change on our export industry. This paper will select three industries in textile, household appliances and computer industry as the representative to study the impact of exchange rate change on the export industry of our country, and put forward some relevant policy suggestions at the same time. This paper selects the annual export data of textile, household appliances and computer products from 2000 to 2009 as a sample. Based on the classical balance of payments theory and the empirical method, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of RMB exchange rate change on the export of three industries. In order to reveal the different effects of exchange rate changes on labor-intensive industries and knowledge-and-technology-intensive industries in China, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the differences in the impact of these three industries on exports. And to our country's industrial structure development to make the corresponding suggestion.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F426.61;F426.81

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