国际热钱流动的规模、趋势及其防范研究

发布时间：2019-04-23 10:13

【摘要】：尽管尚无可靠和公认的计算国际热钱流动规模的准确方法,但去年以来,国际热钱重新涌入我国已是不争的事实,并有可能对我国实体经济与金融领域带来潜在冲击,需对此保持高度关注和警惕。展望未来一段时期,热钱在中国的投机空间有限,短期内大规模持续流入的条件还不具备,温和流入并时有反复可能将成长期趋势。要摆脱国际热钱大规模流动带来的包括人民币升值压力在内的一系列困扰,必须采取疏堵结合的方式:一方面,采取有效的防御性措施,监控各类热钱,加强流入管制,建立防范流出的预案,并与香港密切合作;另一方面,应重视疏导的作用,增强汇率弹性,管理通胀预期,抑制泡沫膨胀,吸引中长期国际资本,防范和限制短期资本泛滥。
[Abstract]:Although there is no reliable and recognized accurate method for calculating the scale of international hot money flows, it is an indisputable fact that international hot money has re-entered our country since last year, and it is likely to have a potential impact on the real economic and financial fields of our country, It is necessary to keep a high level of attention and vigilance. Looking ahead, there is limited speculative space for hot money in China, the conditions for large-scale and sustained inflows in the short term are not yet in place, and moderate inflows and sometimes repeated inflows may lead to a long-term trend. In order to get rid of a series of troubles caused by large-scale international hot money flows, including the pressure of RMB appreciation, we must adopt a combination of dredging and blocking: on the one hand, effective defensive measures should be taken to monitor all kinds of hot money, and the inflow control should be strengthened. Establish a plan to prevent outflows and work closely with Hong Kong; On the other hand, we should pay more attention to the role of channeling, strengthen exchange rate elasticity, manage inflation expectations, restrain bubble inflation, attract medium-and long-term international capital, and prevent and limit the proliferation of short-term capital.
【作者单位】：中国国际经济交流中心;特华博士后科研工作站;山东华联矿业股份有限公司;北京交通大学;南开大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F831.6

【相似文献】