中国外部失衡对通货膨胀的影响
发布时间：2019-04-23 13:02
【摘要】：本文主要针对目前严重的通货膨胀问题进行研究,根据理论和实证分析的结果提出一些政策建议来达到抑制通货膨胀的效果。本文主要内容包括回顾和评述目前已有的研究,在此基础上,对外部失衡对通货膨胀的影响机制进行理论分析。然后对我国目前的外部失衡状况和通货膨胀状况进行描述,采用统计分析、相关分析初步描述它们之间的关系。再进行格兰杰因果关系检验、建立VAR模型、分析脉冲响应函数和方差分解,考察了2000年至2010年外部失衡对中国通货膨胀的影响。最后建立分布滞后模型来分析外部失衡对通货膨胀的短期和长期影响。 格兰杰因果关系检验简单地证实了外部失衡加剧了中国的通货膨胀,结果显示外汇储备和实际有效汇率是居民消费价格指数的格兰杰原因,而且统计上非常显著。VAR模型结果显示,外汇储备对居民消费价格水平产生正面冲击,且有一定的时滞,在第3个月时冲击达到最大值。在方差分解中,外汇储备对消费价格水平变动的贡献度也是较大的,达到6.12%。外汇储备对货币供应量会产生即刻的冲击,也说明外汇储备通过改变流通中的货币量来影响通货膨胀。实际有效汇率对消费价格水平产生负面影响,时滞较长。在方差分解中,它的贡献度为4.16%。而在分布滞后模型中,价格水平对外汇储备的短期弹性为0.0190,长期弹性为0.0809,调节系数为0.2349。而贸易顺差和实际有效汇率的短期弹性系数不显著,调节系数分别只有0.0329和0.0208,调节很缓慢。贸易顺差的短期和长期弹性系数为0.0273和0.8298,实际有效汇率的短期和长期弹性系数为0.0002和0.0096。针对得到的实证结果,提出了一些从外部失衡角度抑制通货膨胀的措施。通过进出口结构和资本流动规模和结构的调整来减少外汇储备,在维持汇率稳定的前提下增强汇率弹性来减少对通货膨胀的压力。
[Abstract]:According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations to achieve the effect of reducing inflation. The main contents of this paper include reviewing and reviewing the existing research, on the basis of which, the influence mechanism of external imbalance on inflation is analyzed theoretically. Then, the paper describes the external imbalance and inflation in China, and uses statistical analysis and correlation analysis to describe the relationship between them. Then Granger causality test is carried out, VAR model is established, impulse response function and variance decomposition are analyzed, and the influence of external imbalance on inflation in China from 2000 to 2010 is investigated. Finally, a distributed lag model is established to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of external imbalances on inflation. The Granger causality test simply confirms that external imbalances exacerbate inflation in China. The results show that foreign exchange reserves and real effective exchange rates are the Granger reasons for the consumer price index. The results of VAR model show that the foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on the consumer price level, and there is a certain time lag, and the shock reaches the maximum value in the third month. In variance decomposition, the contribution of foreign exchange reserves to changes in consumer price levels is also large, reaching 6.12%. Foreign exchange reserves will have an immediate impact on the money supply, which also shows that foreign exchange reserves affect inflation by changing the amount of money in circulation. The real effective exchange rate has a negative impact on the consumer price level, and the time lag is longer. In variance decomposition, its contribution is 4.16%. In the distributed lag model, the short-term elasticity of price level to foreign exchange reserves is 0.0190, the long-term elasticity is 0.0809, and the adjustment coefficient is 0.2349. But the short-term elasticity coefficient of trade surplus and real effective exchange rate is not significant, the adjustment coefficient is only 0.0329 and 0.0208 respectively, the adjustment is very slow. The short-and long-term elastic coefficients of the trade surplus were 0.0273 and 0.8298, and the short-and long-term elastic coefficients of the real effective exchange rate were 0.0002 and 0.0096. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward some measures to restrain inflation from the angle of external imbalance. The foreign exchange reserves can be reduced by adjusting the import and export structure and the scale and structure of capital flows, and the exchange rate elasticity will be enhanced to reduce the inflationary pressure on the premise of maintaining the stability of the exchange rate.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F832.6;F224
本文编号：2463493
[Abstract]:According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations to achieve the effect of reducing inflation. The main contents of this paper include reviewing and reviewing the existing research, on the basis of which, the influence mechanism of external imbalance on inflation is analyzed theoretically. Then, the paper describes the external imbalance and inflation in China, and uses statistical analysis and correlation analysis to describe the relationship between them. Then Granger causality test is carried out, VAR model is established, impulse response function and variance decomposition are analyzed, and the influence of external imbalance on inflation in China from 2000 to 2010 is investigated. Finally, a distributed lag model is established to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of external imbalances on inflation. The Granger causality test simply confirms that external imbalances exacerbate inflation in China. The results show that foreign exchange reserves and real effective exchange rates are the Granger reasons for the consumer price index. The results of VAR model show that the foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on the consumer price level, and there is a certain time lag, and the shock reaches the maximum value in the third month. In variance decomposition, the contribution of foreign exchange reserves to changes in consumer price levels is also large, reaching 6.12%. Foreign exchange reserves will have an immediate impact on the money supply, which also shows that foreign exchange reserves affect inflation by changing the amount of money in circulation. The real effective exchange rate has a negative impact on the consumer price level, and the time lag is longer. In variance decomposition, its contribution is 4.16%. In the distributed lag model, the short-term elasticity of price level to foreign exchange reserves is 0.0190, the long-term elasticity is 0.0809, and the adjustment coefficient is 0.2349. But the short-term elasticity coefficient of trade surplus and real effective exchange rate is not significant, the adjustment coefficient is only 0.0329 and 0.0208 respectively, the adjustment is very slow. The short-and long-term elastic coefficients of the trade surplus were 0.0273 and 0.8298, and the short-and long-term elastic coefficients of the real effective exchange rate were 0.0002 and 0.0096. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward some measures to restrain inflation from the angle of external imbalance. The foreign exchange reserves can be reduced by adjusting the import and export structure and the scale and structure of capital flows, and the exchange rate elasticity will be enhanced to reduce the inflationary pressure on the premise of maintaining the stability of the exchange rate.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F832.6;F224
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