通货膨胀目标制与我国货币政策框架调整研究
发布时间：2019-05-09 04:06
【摘要】：回首过去十多年中货币政策领域的发展,最引人注目的成就便是通货膨胀目标制的诞生和流行,以及由此所触发的对这一政策框架的讨论及研究。目前,我国实行的是以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策框架开始遭遇越来越多的挑战。如何完善我国当前的货币政策框架以应对这些挑战,就成了一个颇具紧迫感的问题。本文便是从分析通货膨胀目标制入手,探求成功货币政策框架的理论及实践,探讨通货膨胀目标制在中国的适用性以及它对我国货币政策框架调整的启示。 本文共分6章,第1章是导论部分,介绍选题的背景和研究的意义、国内外的研究状况、研究的理论基础和方法。 第2章从理论层面和制度层面对通货膨胀目标制进行深入、细致的剖析。 第3章对通货膨胀目标制的国际经验进行了考察,以试图找寻出成功货币政策的共性。本章讨论的范围并不局限于实施正式通货膨胀目标制的国家智利,还包含了被誉为通货膨胀目标制“先驱”的德国和有“隐含的通货膨胀目标制”之称的美国。 第4章在介绍了我国现行货币政策框架的基础上,分析了当前我国货币政策框架所面临的挑战。结合货币目标制出现了问题,本文随之探讨了汇率目标制亦不适用于现如今的中国。本章的最后一节结合通货膨胀目标制实施的前提条件,对通货膨胀目标制在中国的适用性进行了分析。最后得出结论：中国经济尚处于经济转轨时期,目前在中国引入通货膨胀目标制尚不具备条件,中国应有步骤地、逐渐地实施通货膨胀目标制。 第5章则紧承第4章的内容,在论证了通货膨胀目标制是我国货币政策框架选取趋势的基础上,探讨了我国是否有必要提高当前通货膨胀容忍度,另外尝试着对我国的通货膨胀目标区间做了一个设定,并将其作为我国逐步实施通货膨胀目标制的第一步。在做这个尝试之前,第一节内容首先分析了国际上通用的通货膨胀目标的设定依据,即通用的1%-3%的数据来源。紧接着探讨了我国是否有提高通货膨胀容忍度的必要,而最适宜于我国的通货膨胀目标应设定为多少是最佳,并在最后得出一个：我国应效仿德国,先设立一个暂时性的过渡目标为3%～5%,而待至我国真正确立通货膨胀目标制后,再将1%～3%作为一个中长期的通货膨胀目标不动摇。这章内容也是本文的创新所在。 第6章在前面分析的基础上,对我国货币政策框架的调整提出了一揽子政策建议。
[Abstract]:Looking back on the development of monetary policy in the past decade or so, the most remarkable achievement is the birth and popularity of inflation targeting system, as well as the discussion and research on this policy framework triggered by it. At present, the monetary policy framework with the intermediate target of money supply is confronted with more and more challenges. How to improve China's current monetary policy framework to meet these challenges, has become a very urgent issue. This paper starts with the analysis of inflation targeting system, explores the theory and practice of successful monetary policy framework, discusses the applicability of inflation targeting system in China and its enlightenment to the adjustment of monetary policy framework in China. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is the introduction, introduces the background of the topic and the significance of the research, the domestic and foreign research status, the theoretical basis and methods of the research. The second chapter makes an in-depth and detailed analysis of inflation targeting system from the theoretical level and the institutional level. Chapter 3 investigates the international experience of inflation targeting in order to find out the commonality of successful monetary policy. The scope of this chapter is not limited to Chile, which implements formal inflation targeting, but also includes Germany, known as the "pioneer" of inflation targeting, and the United States, known as "implicit inflation targeting". Chapter 4, on the basis of introducing the current monetary policy framework of our country, analyzes the challenges faced by the current monetary policy framework of our country. Combined with the problems of currency targeting, this paper also discusses that exchange rate targeting is not applicable to today's China. In the last section of this chapter, the applicability of inflation targeting in China is analyzed. Finally, it is concluded that China's economy is still in the period of economic transition, at present, the introduction of inflation targeting system in China does not have the conditions, China should gradually implement inflation targeting system step by step. Chapter 5 follows the contents of Chapter 4, and on the basis of proving that inflation targeting is the trend of choosing the monetary policy framework of our country, it discusses whether it is necessary to improve the current inflation tolerance in our country. In addition, an attempt is made to set the inflation target interval of our country, which is regarded as the first step of the gradual implementation of inflation targeting system in our country. Before doing so, the first section analyzes the basis for setting inflation targets, or 1% and 3% of the global inflation target. Then it discusses whether it is necessary for our country to improve the tolerance of inflation, and how much the inflation target which is most suitable for our country should be set to be the best, and finally draws a conclusion: our country should emulate Germany. First set a temporary transition target of 3% 鈮，
本文编号：2472460
[Abstract]:Looking back on the development of monetary policy in the past decade or so, the most remarkable achievement is the birth and popularity of inflation targeting system, as well as the discussion and research on this policy framework triggered by it. At present, the monetary policy framework with the intermediate target of money supply is confronted with more and more challenges. How to improve China's current monetary policy framework to meet these challenges, has become a very urgent issue. This paper starts with the analysis of inflation targeting system, explores the theory and practice of successful monetary policy framework, discusses the applicability of inflation targeting system in China and its enlightenment to the adjustment of monetary policy framework in China. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is the introduction, introduces the background of the topic and the significance of the research, the domestic and foreign research status, the theoretical basis and methods of the research. The second chapter makes an in-depth and detailed analysis of inflation targeting system from the theoretical level and the institutional level. Chapter 3 investigates the international experience of inflation targeting in order to find out the commonality of successful monetary policy. The scope of this chapter is not limited to Chile, which implements formal inflation targeting, but also includes Germany, known as the "pioneer" of inflation targeting, and the United States, known as "implicit inflation targeting". Chapter 4, on the basis of introducing the current monetary policy framework of our country, analyzes the challenges faced by the current monetary policy framework of our country. Combined with the problems of currency targeting, this paper also discusses that exchange rate targeting is not applicable to today's China. In the last section of this chapter, the applicability of inflation targeting in China is analyzed. Finally, it is concluded that China's economy is still in the period of economic transition, at present, the introduction of inflation targeting system in China does not have the conditions, China should gradually implement inflation targeting system step by step. Chapter 5 follows the contents of Chapter 4, and on the basis of proving that inflation targeting is the trend of choosing the monetary policy framework of our country, it discusses whether it is necessary to improve the current inflation tolerance in our country. In addition, an attempt is made to set the inflation target interval of our country, which is regarded as the first step of the gradual implementation of inflation targeting system in our country. Before doing so, the first section analyzes the basis for setting inflation targets, or 1% and 3% of the global inflation target. Then it discusses whether it is necessary for our country to improve the tolerance of inflation, and how much the inflation target which is most suitable for our country should be set to be the best, and finally draws a conclusion: our country should emulate Germany. First set a temporary transition target of 3% 鈮，
本文编号：2472460
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