国际货币秩序的演化分析
发布时间：2019-06-15 19:26
【摘要】：国际货币秩序(International Monetary Order)是国际经济金融交易过程中最根本的制度安排,包括通货制度、储备结算制度与汇率制度三个方面。历史上国际货币秩序的演化都伴随着宏观经济的动荡,尤其是近5年来,从美国次贷危机到欧洲债务危机,国际货币秩序对世界经济结构影响巨大。但是,现有文献较多研究既定国际货币秩序下各个宏观变量的对应关系,缺少对国际货币秩序演化的全方位把握。尤其对于下列问题缺乏系统研究：国际货币秩序演化的规律究竟如何?是否符合斯密“看不见的手”理论?国际货币秩序演化各条路径状态的结构、特点及达成条件是什么?中国在国际货币秩序演化中的角色又如何? 本文试图从制度演化的角度对上述问题进行回答。本文用一个功能—反馈的制度分析框架总结历史各个阶段的演化要点,提出具有较强解释力的国际货币秩序演化规律：在国家差异性和政府短期利益嵌入性作用下的国际货币秩序制度系统难以构成平衡的功能—反馈系统,经济金融危机是国际货币秩序演化的阶段性表现形式,短期利益嵌入性作用下的国际货币秩序并不符合斯密“看不见的手”的理论,只有短期利益嵌入性行为改变后的国际货币秩序才有可能是平衡的功能—反馈系统。国际货币秩序演化有三种路径状态：继续沿用一国主权货币充当通货制度与储备结算制度的主权货币嵌入状态；以超主权货币充当通货制度与储备结算制度的超主权货币状态；主权货币与超主权货币混搭的混合货币状态。 主权货币嵌入状态下,国际货币秩序面临冗余问题,经济最强国的货币角色在国内主权货币与国际储备货币之间往往难以协调,进而形成世界经济失衡。本文通过中心—外围模型、计量检验与中美经济互动案例剖析了当前美元本位制下,美国的经常账户逆差与资本账户顺差形成了总量平衡,但分量失衡的结构性问题。中美两国实现了各自短期经济利益的同时积累了巨大的风险。 超主权货币状态存在自由竞争货币与最优货币区两种方式。本文考察了两种模式在机制设计上的优劣,并结合美国区域货币制度与欧洲债务危机进行案例研究。结果表明,自由货币竞争与最优货币区对于控制主权货币超量发行带来的通货膨胀进而以价格稳定促进经济发展具有较好作用,但国家差异性、政府角色矛盾等因素使得运行条件苛刻,超主权货币状态下的国际货币秩序可能更为混乱。 混合货币状态下,本文借鉴黄金与特别提款权的优点,以解决冗余问题为目的,在保留各国主权货币的基础上,创造性地提出了世元(World Currency)方案：世元作为经常账户的清算货币,资本和金融账户流通仍使用各国主权货币,世元汇价体系则由各国货币的汇价换算而得,定期调整权重。世元体系的侧重点是在保留各国主权货币的基础上,纠正主权国家对国际货币秩序的短期利益嵌入,使得国际货币秩序达成平衡的功能—反馈机制。 本文对三种路径状态进行了比较研究：超主权货币状态对于政府短期利益嵌入性的改变最为彻底,达成条件最为苛刻；混合货币状态是个过渡态；主权货币嵌入状态则是最容易达成的国际货币秩序演化方向。只要政府强化对于自身短期利益的嵌入,超主权货币状态和混合货币状态都会退回到主权货币嵌入状态,这与国际货币秩序演化的主要规律也是一致的。 针对国际货币秩序演化的三种路径状态,中国有着不同的角色类型。尽力争取以世元方案为代表的混合货币状态的国际货币秩序应是中国追求的目标。但在主权货币嵌入状态构成演化主基调的情况下,中国只能通过寻求包括人民币在内的多种主权货币平等充当储备货币来缓解美元本位制的不利影响。无论哪种状态,中国都需要汇率形成机制和资本账户开放的进一步改革使人民币走向国际。 本研究的最主要创新点体现在：(1)首次详尽系统研究了国际货币秩序演化的三种路径状态,结合中美经济互动、美国自由银行制度、欧洲债务危机等案例对每种状态的结构、特点以及达成条件进行全面分析,并对各个状态做了比较研究；(2)在混合货币状态中创造性地提出了国际货币秩序的世元方案,世元方案在保留各国主权货币的基础上,通过经常账户与资本金融账户使用币种的分离来改变政府利用主权货币的利益嵌入,从而使得国际货币秩序发挥平衡作用；(3)提出了一个全新且解释力很强的国际货币秩序演化规律：由差异性和嵌入性造成了主权货币成为国际货币秩序中通货制度和储备结算制度的主要选项,进而使得国际货币秩序难以达到平衡的功能—反馈系统,而斯密“看不见的手”的机制在国际货币秩序领域具有较大的限制性。
[Abstract]:International Monetary Order is the most fundamental institutional arrangement in the process of international economic financial transactions, including the currency system, the reserve settlement system and the exchange rate system. The evolution of the international monetary order in history is accompanied by the turbulence of the macro-economy, especially in the past five years, from the American subprime crisis to the European debt crisis, the international monetary order has a great impact on the world's economic structure. However, there are more studies on the corresponding relation between the macro variables under the established international monetary order and the lack of an all-round grasp of the evolution of the international monetary order. In particular, there is a lack of systematic research on the following problems: how is the law of international monetary order evolution? Is it in line with the Smith "invisible hand" theory? What is the structure, characteristics and conditions of the international monetary order evolution of each path state? How is China's role in the evolution of international monetary order? This paper attempts to answer the above questions from the angle of the evolution of the system In this paper, a functional feedback system is used to analyze the evolution of the various stages of the history, and the law of the evolution of the international monetary order with strong explanatory power is put forward. The system of international monetary order under the influence of the difference of the country and the short-term interests of the government is hard to form a balanced function and feedback system, and the economic and financial crisis is the stage expression of the evolution of the international monetary order. The international monetary order under the effect of short-term benefit is not in line with the theory of Smith's "invisible hand". Only the international monetary order after the change of the short-term benefit is likely to be the balanced function and feedback system. The evolution of the international monetary order has three path states: to continue to use the sovereign currency of a country to act as the sovereign currency embedded state of the currency system and the reserve settlement system; to act as the super-sovereign currency of the currency system and the reserve settlement system in the super-sovereign currency ; the mixed currency status of the sovereign currency and the super-sovereign currency In the state of the embedded sovereign currency, the international monetary order is confronted with the problem of redundancy, and the monetary role of the most powerful in the economy is often difficult to coordinate between the domestic sovereign currency and the international reserve currency, thus forming the world economic loss In this paper, through the analysis of the current dollar standard, the current account deficit of the United States and the surplus of the capital account form the balance of the total amount, but the structural question of the imbalance of the components is analyzed by the central and peripheral model, the measurement test and the Sino-US economic interaction case. The two countries have realized their respective short-term economic interests and accumulated great wind Insurance. There are two kinds of free competitive currency and the optimal currency area in the state of over-sovereignty money. In this paper, the advantages and disadvantages of the two modes in the mechanism design are investigated, and the case of the regional monetary system in the United States and the European debt crisis are discussed. The results show that the free-currency competition and the optimal currency area have a better effect on the control of the inflation of the over-issuance of the sovereign currency, which has a good effect on the price stability and the economic development, but the factors such as the national difference and the government role conflict make the operating conditions The international monetary order in the state of the harsh and super-sovereign currency may be more In the state of mixed currency, this paper uses the advantages of gold and special drawing rights to solve the problem of redundancy. On the basis of retaining the sovereign currency of each country, the World Currency scheme is creatively put forward. The circulation of the monetary, capital and financial accounts is still in use by the sovereign currency of each country, and the exchange rate system of the world is obtained by the conversion of the exchange rate of the national currency and is regularly adjusted. The focus of the system is to correct the short-term interests of the sovereign state to the international monetary order based on the retention of the sovereign currency of all countries, so that the international monetary order has a balanced function. In this paper, three path states are compared and studied: the state of the super-sovereign currency is the most complete and the condition is most severe for the change of the short-term interest of the government, and the state of the mixed currency is the state of the mixed currency. A transitional state; an embedded state of a sovereign currency is the most easily achieved international monetary order. The direction of evolution. As long as the government strengthens the embedding of its short-term interests, the state of over-sovereignty money and the state of mixed currency will be returned to the embedded state of the sovereign currency, which is the main law of the evolution of the international monetary order. It is consistent. China is different for the three path states of the evolution of the international monetary order The role type. The international monetary order to strive for a mixed-currency state represented by the World Programme should be China In the case of the main tone of the evolution of the embedded state of the sovereign currency, China can only alleviate the dollar-based system by seeking to act as a reserve currency for a variety of sovereign currencies, including the RMB. No matter which state, China needs further reform of the exchange rate forming mechanism and the capital account opening to make the people The most important innovation point of this study is as follows: (1) The first detailed system has studied the three path states of the international monetary order evolution, combined with the Sino-US economic interaction, the American free banking system, the European debt crisis, etc. The structure, characteristics and conditions of the state are analyzed in a comprehensive way, and the states are compared and studied. (2) In the state of mixed currency, the international monetary order is creatively put forward. On the basis of the currency, the exchange of the currency between the regular account and the capital financial account is used to change the interest of the government to use the sovereign currency, thus making the international monetary order play a balanced role; and (3) a brand-new and strong international currency is put forward The law of order evolution: the difference and the embeddedness cause the sovereign currency to become the main option of the currency system and the reserve settlement system in the international monetary order, thus making the international monetary order difficult to achieve the balanced work. In the field of international monetary order, the mechanism of the Smith "invisible hand" has the advantages of being able to feedback the feedback system.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F821
本文编号：2500452
[Abstract]:International Monetary Order is the most fundamental institutional arrangement in the process of international economic financial transactions, including the currency system, the reserve settlement system and the exchange rate system. The evolution of the international monetary order in history is accompanied by the turbulence of the macro-economy, especially in the past five years, from the American subprime crisis to the European debt crisis, the international monetary order has a great impact on the world's economic structure. However, there are more studies on the corresponding relation between the macro variables under the established international monetary order and the lack of an all-round grasp of the evolution of the international monetary order. In particular, there is a lack of systematic research on the following problems: how is the law of international monetary order evolution? Is it in line with the Smith "invisible hand" theory? What is the structure, characteristics and conditions of the international monetary order evolution of each path state? How is China's role in the evolution of international monetary order? This paper attempts to answer the above questions from the angle of the evolution of the system In this paper, a functional feedback system is used to analyze the evolution of the various stages of the history, and the law of the evolution of the international monetary order with strong explanatory power is put forward. The system of international monetary order under the influence of the difference of the country and the short-term interests of the government is hard to form a balanced function and feedback system, and the economic and financial crisis is the stage expression of the evolution of the international monetary order. The international monetary order under the effect of short-term benefit is not in line with the theory of Smith's "invisible hand". Only the international monetary order after the change of the short-term benefit is likely to be the balanced function and feedback system. The evolution of the international monetary order has three path states: to continue to use the sovereign currency of a country to act as the sovereign currency embedded state of the currency system and the reserve settlement system; to act as the super-sovereign currency of the currency system and the reserve settlement system in the super-sovereign currency ; the mixed currency status of the sovereign currency and the super-sovereign currency In the state of the embedded sovereign currency, the international monetary order is confronted with the problem of redundancy, and the monetary role of the most powerful in the economy is often difficult to coordinate between the domestic sovereign currency and the international reserve currency, thus forming the world economic loss In this paper, through the analysis of the current dollar standard, the current account deficit of the United States and the surplus of the capital account form the balance of the total amount, but the structural question of the imbalance of the components is analyzed by the central and peripheral model, the measurement test and the Sino-US economic interaction case. The two countries have realized their respective short-term economic interests and accumulated great wind Insurance. There are two kinds of free competitive currency and the optimal currency area in the state of over-sovereignty money. In this paper, the advantages and disadvantages of the two modes in the mechanism design are investigated, and the case of the regional monetary system in the United States and the European debt crisis are discussed. The results show that the free-currency competition and the optimal currency area have a better effect on the control of the inflation of the over-issuance of the sovereign currency, which has a good effect on the price stability and the economic development, but the factors such as the national difference and the government role conflict make the operating conditions The international monetary order in the state of the harsh and super-sovereign currency may be more In the state of mixed currency, this paper uses the advantages of gold and special drawing rights to solve the problem of redundancy. On the basis of retaining the sovereign currency of each country, the World Currency scheme is creatively put forward. The circulation of the monetary, capital and financial accounts is still in use by the sovereign currency of each country, and the exchange rate system of the world is obtained by the conversion of the exchange rate of the national currency and is regularly adjusted. The focus of the system is to correct the short-term interests of the sovereign state to the international monetary order based on the retention of the sovereign currency of all countries, so that the international monetary order has a balanced function. In this paper, three path states are compared and studied: the state of the super-sovereign currency is the most complete and the condition is most severe for the change of the short-term interest of the government, and the state of the mixed currency is the state of the mixed currency. A transitional state; an embedded state of a sovereign currency is the most easily achieved international monetary order. The direction of evolution. As long as the government strengthens the embedding of its short-term interests, the state of over-sovereignty money and the state of mixed currency will be returned to the embedded state of the sovereign currency, which is the main law of the evolution of the international monetary order. It is consistent. China is different for the three path states of the evolution of the international monetary order The role type. The international monetary order to strive for a mixed-currency state represented by the World Programme should be China In the case of the main tone of the evolution of the embedded state of the sovereign currency, China can only alleviate the dollar-based system by seeking to act as a reserve currency for a variety of sovereign currencies, including the RMB. No matter which state, China needs further reform of the exchange rate forming mechanism and the capital account opening to make the people The most important innovation point of this study is as follows: (1) The first detailed system has studied the three path states of the international monetary order evolution, combined with the Sino-US economic interaction, the American free banking system, the European debt crisis, etc. The structure, characteristics and conditions of the state are analyzed in a comprehensive way, and the states are compared and studied. (2) In the state of mixed currency, the international monetary order is creatively put forward. On the basis of the currency, the exchange of the currency between the regular account and the capital financial account is used to change the interest of the government to use the sovereign currency, thus making the international monetary order play a balanced role; and (3) a brand-new and strong international currency is put forward The law of order evolution: the difference and the embeddedness cause the sovereign currency to become the main option of the currency system and the reserve settlement system in the international monetary order, thus making the international monetary order difficult to achieve the balanced work. In the field of international monetary order, the mechanism of the Smith "invisible hand" has the advantages of being able to feedback the feedback system.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F821
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 苑斯秀;资本项目开放度对货币国际化影响的实证分析[D];吉林大学;2014年
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