香港人民币离岸市场形成与发展研究

发布时间：2019-06-22 09:24

【摘要】：人民币国际化是现阶段中国政府在国际货币金融领域中的核心发展战略。香港人民币离岸市场的形成和发展是人民币国际化战略的重要环节。香港人民币离岸市场是在中国政府政策主导下逐步形成的,属于政策推动型的本币离岸金融市场。政策推动与本币离岸也是香港人民币离岸市场的显著特征。本文对香港人民币离岸市场形成与发展的研究分为七个部分。第一部分为导论。这部分介绍了选题背景和研究意义,对国际离岸金融市场和香港人民币离岸金融市场的形成、发展模式、监管、影响和建设等方面进行了相关文献综述的梳理,对本文的研究方法和结构安排进行了阐述,并指出本文研究的创新之处与不足。第二部分对第二次世界大战以后国际离岸金融市场的发展变化进行归纳与梳理,并通过总结二战后国际离岸金融市场发展的经验。二战后离岸金融市场的传统形式是欧洲货币市场,之后出现了“在岸”离岸金融市场的形式。离岸金融的定义依据也从国境或边境演变成金融监管体系或金融运行体系的内外分离。对离岸金融市场类型的划分可以从不同的角度进行,主要包括形成方式、运行模式、货币种类、业务构成等多种角度。从交易货币与市场所在地之间的关系角度来看,离岸金融可以分为“本币离岸金融”和“外币离岸金融”。二战后国际离岸金融市场在运行模式、监管方式以及离岸利率体系等方面为香港人民币离岸市场提供了重要的发展经验。第三部分阐述了香港人民币离岸市场在政策推动下的建立背景和过程,并分析了香港人民币离岸市场的特殊性。人民币国际化战略的需要、全球离岸金融持续增长趋势的国际金融形势和环境以及香港发达金融系统提供的有利条件,是香港人民币离岸市场建立的重要背景。从2003年底到2012年初,香港人民币离岸市场的建立过程包括萌芽阶段、形成阶段和全面建设阶段。香港人民币离岸市场是在境外由政策推动的本币离岸市场,所以,与同样属于政策推动型本币离岸市场的纽约美元离岸市场或东京日元离岸市场相比,香港人民币离岸市场在建立方式、产生原因、运行模式以及监管模式等方面存在着显著的特殊性。第四部分对香港人民币离岸市场的结构进行了分析。在香港离岸人民币货币市场上,离岸人民币存款的增速会有所下降,香港企业人民币存款的比例仍会上升,政策因素、人民币升值预期以及人民币回流渠道是离岸人民币贷款融资业务发展的重要影响因素。离岸人民币存贷款利率将会上升,三大银行的人民币同业拆借利率水平趋于一致,统一的人民币市场基准利率HIBOR CNY的出现尚需时日。香港离岸人民币债券市场将继续保持快速增长趋势,离岸人民币债券收益率将上升,其二级市场有望得到快速发展,更多内地企业将直接赴港发行人民币债券,离岸人民币债券的定价机制将会得到完善。香港离岸人民币股票市场发展缓慢,但境外中小型企业是香港离岸人民币股票市场的重点吸引和发展对象。香港离岸人民币即期和远期外汇市场发展迅速,但是受到人民币可自由兑换性等政策因素的约束较大。香港离岸人民币产品包括离岸人民币的金融衍生产品以及金融投融资产品。离岸人民币产品收益、人民币汇率预期以及相关管制政策是影响离岸人民币产品市场发展的重要因素。第五部分对香港人民币离岸市场的影响进行了分析。在对境内在岸金融市场的影响方面,离岸人民币汇率对在岸人民币汇率存在着引导关系,主要表现在离岸人民币短期合约对在岸人民币即期和短期合约方面。同时,即期或短期限的离岸与在岸人民币汇率的双向引导关系将会愈加明显。但是,离岸人民币利率的波动对在岸人民币利率基本上不会产生明显的影响。没有在境外借外债额度的境内机构或企业在香港融资人民币后并回流到境内,或RQFII的人民币回流会明显增加境内货币供应量的规模,而外资企业的人民币FDI以及人民币贸易结算的人民币回流不会对境内货币供应量的规模产生影响。人民币离岸金融市场的发展会提升香港国际金融中心的地位和实力,但人民币替代港元的可能性依然很低,其对港元的替代条件并不具备。同时,香港人民币离岸市场为国际金融市场提供更多的投融资场所和机会,也使人民币在国际货币结构中的影响力得到显著提升。第六部分探讨了香港人民币离岸市场的预期风险问题。香港人民币离岸市场发展过程中的预期风险主要有两个根源,即政策取向问题和市场预期问题。离岸与在岸人民币价格或收益的差异是政策取向预期风险产生的重要原因。在香港人民币离岸市场上的最重要市场预期就是对人民币的升值预期。稳定的人民币升值预期是支撑香港人民币离岸市场发展的基本条件,但也成为人民币离岸市场发展的风险根源。香港人民币离岸市场的预期风险包括投机套利阻碍市场健康发展的风险、短期跨境资金流动的风险、削弱货币政策有效性的风险、阻碍人民币国际化进程的“再贷款游戏”风险、离岸市场建设过程中的其它风险。香港人民币离岸市场预期风险防范的基本思路包括缩小离岸与在岸人民币价格和收益的差异、推动内地利率市场化和汇率形成机制的改革深化、加强监管机制的完善和市场的风险管理、推进香港人民币离岸市场不断走向成熟。第七部分在对国际离岸金融发展经验以及香港人民币离岸市场的建立、结构、影响和预期风险分析的基础上,提出香港人民币离岸市场发展的政策建议。香港人民币离岸市场是促进人民币国际化的重要途径,但对人民币国际化进程以及目标的实现,只有促进作用而无决定作用。香港人民币离岸市场的功能定位体现在三个角度：其一,香港人民币离岸市场是创建和完善人民币外部循环体系的重要平台,是资本账户没有完全开放条件下,促进人民币国际化进程的重要方式。其二,香港人民币离岸市场的发展是人民币资本项目加速开放的重要诱因。其三,香港人民币离岸市场的发展是内地金融改革的实验田和催化剂。对其发展的政策建议主要涉及两个层面的四个问题,即自身建设层面的人民币离岸金融基础设施建设和离岸人民币利率市场化这两个问题；政策推动层面的离岸人民币回流机制以及人民币资本账户开放这两个问题。人民币离岸金融基础设施建设主要包括市场交易体系、支付结算体系和支持保障体系的建设。离岸人民币利率市场化是十分必要的,并通过离岸人民币资金池达到一定规模、建立和完善离岸人民币拆借市场、促进离岸人民币贷款与融资业务的发展、完善和发展离岸人民币投资市场以及逐步放松政策管制来逐步实现离岸人民币利率市场化。在离岸人民币回流渠道建设方面,继续推进人民币结算的回流渠道、进一步完善RQFII人民币回流渠道、继续发展境内银行间债券市场的人民币回流渠道以及积极探索其它的人民币回流渠道。同时,坚持发展的渐进性和监管的有效性。资本账户的开放是推动香港人民币离岸市场发展以及人民币国际化的重要手段,要审慎推进资本账户的开放,并通过对监管的认识、监管方式的完善、监管主体的参与,在管制逐渐放松过程中实现有效监管。
[Abstract]:The internationalization of RMB is the core development strategy of the Chinese government in the field of international monetary finance. The formation and development of the RMB offshore market in Hong Kong is an important part of the internationalization strategy of RMB. The Hong Kong's offshore market is gradually formed under the Chinese government's policy, and is a policy-driven, local-currency, offshore financial market. Policy-driven and local-currency offshore is also a significant feature of the Hong Kong's offshore market. The research on the formation and development of RMB offshore market in Hong Kong is divided into seven parts. The first part is the guide In this part, the background and significance of the topic selection are introduced, and the development, development, supervision, influence and construction of the offshore financial market of the international offshore financial market and the offshore financial market of Hong Kong are analyzed, and the research methods and structure arrangements of this paper are also discussed. It also points out that the innovation of this paper is not the same as that of the non- The second part sums up the changes of the international offshore financial market after the Second World War, and concludes the development of the international offshore financial market after World War II The traditional form of offshore financial markets after World War II is the European currency market, followed by a "on shore" of offshore financial markets The definition of the offshore finance is based on the development of the frontier or border into the financial supervision system or the system of financial operation External separation. The division of the type of offshore financial market can be carried out from different angles, mainly including the form of formation, the mode of operation, the type of currency, the composition of the business, etc. From the perspective of the relationship between the transaction currency and the market location, the offshore finance can be divided into "offshore finance in local currency" and

"foreign currency office finance" . The international offshore financial market, after the Second World War, has provided important issues for the offshore market of Hong Kong in terms of the mode of operation, the way of regulation and the system of offshore interest rate. The third part sets out the background and process of the Hong Kong's RMB offshore market under the promotion of the policy, and analyzes the offshore market of Hong Kong. The particularity of the field, the need of the RMB internationalization strategy, the international financial situation and environment of the trend of global offshore financial growth and the favorable conditions provided by the developed financial system in Hong Kong are the establishment of the offshore market in Hong Kong The establishment of the Hong Kong RMB offshore market from the end of 2003 to the beginning of 2012 includes the embryonic stage, the formation stage and the whole The offshore market of the Hong Kong currency is an offshore market driven by policy outside the country, so the offshore market of the Hong Kong currency is set up in the same way as the offshore market of the US dollar and the offshore market of the Japanese yen, which is also the offshore market of the policy-driven domestic currency. There are significant differences in the reasons, the operation mode, and the supervision mode. The particularity of the works. The fourth part is about the Hong Kong's offshore market. The structure is analyzed. In the offshore RMB currency market in Hong Kong, the growth rate of the offshore RMB deposits will decrease, and the proportion of RMB deposits in the Hong Kong enterprises will still rise, and the policy factors, the expected appreciation of the RMB and the return channel of the RMB are the development of the offshore RMB loan financing business The interest rate of the offshore RMB deposit and loan will rise, and the level of the RMB interbank borrowing rate of the three banks will be consistent, and the unified RMB market benchmark interest rate is HIBOR CNY. It will take time. The Hong Kong's offshore renminbi bond market will continue to maintain a fast-growing trend. The yield of the offshore renminbi bond will rise, and its secondary market is expected to grow rapidly, and more of the mainland's enterprises will go directly to Hong Kong to issue the RMB bond and the offshore RMB bond pricing machine. The system will be improved. Hong Kong's offshore RMB stock market is developing slowly, but the small and medium-sized enterprises outside China are the key points of the offshore RMB stock market in Hong Kong Attract and develop the object. Hong Kong's offshore RMB spot and long-term foreign exchange market is developing rapidly, but it is subject to the policy of free convertibility of the RMB The factors are more constrained. Hong Kong's offshore renminbi products include the offshore renminbi's financial derivatives and Financial investment and financing products. The offshore RMB product yield, the RMB exchange rate expectation and the related control policy are the influence of the offshore RMB product market The important factor of development. The fifth part is the offshore market of Hong Kong The effect of the field is analyzed. In terms of the influence of the onshore financial market in China, the offshore RMB exchange rate has a direct relationship with the onshore RMB exchange rate, which is mainly manifested in the offshore RMB short-term contract to the onshore RMB both spot and short-term contract terms. At the same time, both the spot or the short-term offshore and onshore RMB exchange rate is two-way The relationship will become more obvious. However, the fluctuation of the offshore yuan interest rate is basically the same as the onshore RMB interest rate No significant impact will be produced. In the case of a domestic institution or an enterprise with a foreign debt limit outside the territory of Hong Kong, it is not allowed to return to the territory, or the RMB return of the RQFII will increase significantly. The size of the internal money supply, and the RMB FDI in the foreign-capital enterprise and the RMB exchange settlement of the RMB trade settlement will not be supplied to the domestic currency The magnitude of the amount should be affected. The development of the renminbi's offshore financial markets will enhance the position and strength of the Hong Kong International Financial Centre, but the possibility of the renminbi to replace the Hong Kong dollar remains low, as it is for the Hong Kong dollar At the same time, the offshore market of the Hong Kong currency provides more investment and financing places and opportunities for the international financial market, and the RMB in the international monetary structure The influence is remarkably improved. The sixth part discusses the Hong Kong RMB The expected risk of the offshore market is the main source of the expected risks in the development of the RMB offshore market in Hong Kong, that is, the policy The issue of orientation and market expectations. The difference between the FOB and the onshore RMB is the policy orientation. An important reason for the expected risk. The most important market expectations in the Hong Kong's offshore market are It is expected that the appreciation of the currency is expected. The stable appreciation of the RMB is expected to be the basic condition to support the development of the Hong Kong RMB offshore market, but it is also RMB The risk of the development of the offshore market. The expected risks of the offshore market of Hong Kong include the risk of the speculative arbitrage to hinder the development of the market's health, the risk of short-term cross-border financial flows, the risk of weakening the effectiveness of the monetary policy, the "reloan game" risk to the internationalization process of the RMB, and the offshore market. Other risks during the construction of the field. The basic idea of the risk prevention of the Hong Kong's offshore market is to reduce the difference between the price and the income of the offshore and onshore RMB, to promote the reform of the market-based and exchange-rate-forming mechanism of the inland interest rate, and to strengthen the supervision mechanism The improvement of the market and the risk management of the market and the promotion of the people of Hong Kong In the seventh part, on the basis of the analysis of the international offshore financial development experience and the establishment, structure, impact and expected risk analysis of the offshore market in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong people The policy advice of the development of the offshore market of the People's Republic of China. The offshore market of the RMB is an important way to promote the internationalization of the RMB, but the realization of the internationalization of the RMB and the realization of the target The function positioning of the Hong Kong RMB offshore market is three angles: first, the offshore market of the Hong Kong is an important platform for creating and perfecting the external circulation system of the RMB, which is the promotion of the capital account not fully open Second, the development of the RMB offshore market in Hong Kong is RMB The development of the Hong Kong's offshore market is an important incentive to accelerate the opening of capital projects. The experimental field and the catalyst of the local financial reform. The policy suggestions for its development mainly concern the four problems at the two levels, that is, the construction of the offshore financial infrastructure and the offshore financial infrastructure at the self-construction level. The two problems of the marketization of the RMB interest rate; the offshore RMB return mechanism at the level of the policy and the people The construction of the offshore financial infrastructure of the RMB mainly includes the market trading system and the payment of the settlement. The construction of the system and support guarantee system. The market of the offshore RMB interest rate is necessary, and the offshore RMB fund pool reaches a certain size, and the offshore RMB borrowing market is established and improved, and the offshore RMB market is promoted. The development of RMB loan and financing business, the improvement and development of the offshore RMB investment market and the gradual relaxation of the policy control Step up the marketization of the offshore RMB interest rate. In the area of the offshore RMB return channel construction, continue to promote the return channel of RMB settlement, further improve the RQFII RMB return channel, and continue to develop the RMB return channel and product of the inter-bank bond market in China Explore the other RMB return channel. At the same time, adhere to The opening of the capital account is an important means of promoting the development of the RMB offshore market and the internationalization of the RMB. The opening of the capital account should be carefully promoted and the supervision should be regulated. The improvement of the way, the participation of the regulatory body, and the control
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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