我国农村金融发展与农民收入增长关系的统计分析

发布时间：2019-06-22 07:43

【摘要】：农民增收问题是关系到一个国家民生的现实问题。农民收入增长以农村经济发展为依托，而农村经济发展又依靠农村金融的有效支撑。随着农村金融体制改革的进一步深化，如何建立农村金融发展与农民收入增长间的良性互动关系成为一个亟待解决的重大现实问题。基于金融发展理论，本文首先分析了我国农村金融发展与农民收入增长的理论关系，从中探讨了农村金融发展过程中存在的主要问题，并对影响二者之间相互促进、相互融合发展的原因进行了分析，得出我国二元经济背景下的金融抑制是制约农民收入增长的重要因素。其次应用描述性统计对我国农村金融发展、农民收入水平的现状和变化趋势进行了定量分析，发现我国农村金融呈现“高增长、低效率”的发展状况，即虽然农村金融发展深度扩张迅速，但是仍然存在结构过于单一化、农村储蓄-投资转换效率低下、农村信贷水平发展滞后等问题；农民人均纯收入虽然保持持续增长，但是城乡居民收入差距扩大趋势正在加大。再次，文中将农村金融发展分为农村金融发展规模、水平、结构和效率四个层面，并将农村固定资产投资率作为控制变量，应用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分析，进一步探讨农村金融发展与农民收入增长之间的关系，，并提出观点：要实现农村金融发展和农民增收的协调发展的目标应该“数量”和“质量”并重，即在扩大农村金融规模总量的同时也应当注重农村金融支农效率的提高。并在文章的最后结合我国农村金融发展的实际情况，针对性地提出我国农村金融如何发展从而使农民增收的建议。
[Abstract]:The problem of increasing farmers' income is a realistic problem related to the people's livelihood of a country. Farmers' income growth is based on the development of rural economy, and the development of rural economy depends on the effective support of rural finance. With the further deepening of the reform of rural financial system, how to establish a benign interactive relationship between rural financial development and farmers' income growth has become a major practical problem to be solved urgently. Based on the theory of financial development, this paper first analyzes the theoretical relationship between rural financial development and farmers' income growth in China, probes into the main problems existing in the process of rural financial development, and analyzes the reasons that affect the mutual promotion and integration of the two. It is concluded that financial suppression under the background of dual economy in China is an important factor restricting farmers' income growth. Secondly, descriptive statistics are used to quantitatively analyze the present situation and changing trend of rural financial development and farmers' income level in China. It is found that rural finance in China presents the development situation of "high growth and low efficiency", that is, although the development of rural finance is expanding rapidly, there are still some problems, such as the structure is too simple, the efficiency of rural savings-investment conversion is low, and the development of rural credit level lags behind. Although the per capita net income of farmers continues to grow, the income gap between urban and rural residents is widening. Thirdly, the rural financial development is divided into four aspects: the scale, level, structure and efficiency of rural financial development, and the rural fixed asset investment rate is taken as the control variable. Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance analysis are used to further explore the relationship between rural financial development and farmers' income growth. And put forward the point of view: in order to achieve the goal of coordinated development of rural financial development and farmers' income increase, we should pay equal attention to both "quantity" and "quality", that is to say, we should not only expand the total amount of rural finance, but also pay attention to the improvement of the efficiency of rural finance supporting agriculture. At the end of the article, combined with the actual situation of rural financial development in China, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to develop rural finance in China so as to increase farmers' income.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.35;F323.8;F224

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