中国—东盟自由贸易区（CAFTA）框架下人民币区域化研究

发布时间：2019-07-03 19:01

【摘要】：2008年的金融危机影响深远,世界经济蒙受重大损失,现行国际货币体系的缺陷也暴露无遗。在“布雷顿森林体系”和“牙买加协议”基础上构建起来的现行国际货币体系缺乏必要的制度约束,导致各国宏观经济稳定性和金融资产安全不能妥善维护,因此,各国要求公平、公正的多极化国际货币体系的呼声日益强烈。与此同时,中国经济总量的不断攀升,经济保持持续稳定快速的增长,综合国力不断增强,国际地位也日益上升。中国发展成为世界格局中的重要力量,人民币的国际地位问题逐渐受到国内外广泛关注。作为人口多、发展快的出口大国,中国拥有高额的外汇储备,只有人民币在国际上发挥计价、交易和储备功能,才能使中国拥有相应的国际经济话语权和决策权。随着经济不断增长,人民币在周边国家也逐渐成为硬通货,中国政府在金融危机中表现出的高度责任感使人民币的国际声望得到大幅提升。人民币对于抑制美元和推动国际货币体系改革也负有不可推卸的责任。 2010年,中国—东盟自由贸易区(以下简称CAFTA)在经过长达十年的建设后正式启动,自贸区内90%以上的贸易品关税降为0,区域内的经济货币合作前景十分广泛。人民币区域化的进程能够缓解区域贸易中单纯依赖美元的单边格局,对区域经济稳定提供保障。人民币在贸易结算中得到广泛使用,能够降低汇率波动对进出口商的影响,同时能够降低汇兑成本和交易成本。在当前我国资本项目尚未完全放开的背景下,本文尝试探讨在CAFTA框架下人民币实现区域化的可能性。根据最优货币区理论,货币区域化是指一国货币成为区域性的国际货币,货币在该区域内履行国际货币职能。货币区域化是介于货币周边化和国际化之间的过程。本文所研究的人民币区域化是指,在中国和东盟的区域内,通过自由贸易区的制度安排作为推动手段,经过长时间货币合作和竞争而使人民币成为该区域内核心流通货币,履行贸易计价和贸易结算的职能。首先,本文阐明在金融危机和CAFTA成立的背景下,人民币推进国际化、区域化的意义,然后对本文讨论的东盟、中国—东盟自由贸易区、人民币区域化等概念进行了界定,整理了学者们的相关研究文献,包括对东亚地区最优货币区的研究综述、CAFTA经济效应的研究综述和贸易推动人民币区域化的研究综述。其次,对贸易发展推动人民币区域化的相关理论进行梳理,包括对最优货币区理论的产生和发展进行了阐述,总结了国际贸易计价结算货币选择理论。在此理论基础上,对贸易发展在欧元、拉美地区美元和日元的国际化过程中推动作用进行了比较分析,总结出人民币区域化值得借鉴的经验教训。进一步分析了目前在CAFTA框架下人民币区域化具备的有利条件：人民币已经在东盟广泛使用,中国经济实力强大和人民币币值稳定、坚挺,中国对外贸易的迅速发展,东亚货币合作发展的需要。继而使用数据和指标对中国与东盟的经济周期一致性、经济稳定性、贸易依存度与贸易结构等方面的差异进行比较,以实证的方式,检验了CAFTA整体的贸易联系和产出增长的趋同性。再次,分析了CAFTA框架下人民币区域化面临的主要问题和挑战。分别从我国的经济实力,对外贸易的竞争力,我国金融体系现状,以东盟为中心的自由贸易区网络建设,东盟的制度法规安排,和美国、日本对人民币区域化的制约等方面进行了探讨。最后,根据前文的分析,提出在CAFTA框架下人民币区域化的策略,从国内和国际两方面提出了相关建议。本文的创新之处在于尝试在CAFTA框架下对区域内各国进行了贸易依存度和产出增长性的内生性检验,此外,利用数据分析了东盟建设自由贸易区网络对中国的影响。论文的不足之处在于,在应对策略分析方面,所提策略的可操作性尚待检验。这些都是今后需要继续努力研究的。另外,由于能力有限,一些统计数据不能获得,或者不能获得最新的统计数据,导致分析做得不够深入
[Abstract]:The financial crisis in 2008 had a far-reaching impact and the world economy suffered heavy losses, and the current international monetary system's shortcomings were also exposed. The current international monetary system, which is built on the basis of the "the Bretton Woods system" and the "Jamaica Agreement", lacks the necessary institutional constraints, which leads to the lack of proper maintenance of the macro-economic stability and the security of the financial assets. Therefore, the call for a fair and just multi-polar international monetary system is becoming more and more intense. At the same time, the economic growth of China's economy, the sustained and steady growth of the economy, the continuous enhancement of the overall national strength and the increasing international status. China's development has become an important force in the world pattern, and the international status of the RMB has been paid more and more attention at home and abroad. As an export country with many population and fast development, China has a high foreign exchange reserve, and only the RMB has the function of pricing, trading and reserve in the international level, so as to make China have the corresponding international economic right and decision-making power. With the growth of the economy, the yuan has also gradually become hard currency in the neighboring countries, and the high sense of responsibility of the Chinese government in the financial crisis has greatly improved the international prestige of the RMB. The RMB has an unshirkable responsibility for the suppression of the United States dollar and for the reform of the international monetary system. In 2010, China's ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) was officially launched after a decade of construction. The tariff of more than 90% of the trade goods in the FTZ was reduced to 0, and the economic and monetary cooperation in the region was very wide. The process of RMB regionalization can alleviate the single-sided pattern of the dollar in the regional trade, and provide the guarantee for regional economic stability. The RMB is widely used in the trade settlement, which can reduce the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on the import and export, and also reduce the exchange cost and the transaction. This paper attempts to explore the possibility of regionalization under the framework of CAFTA in the background that the current capital project has not been completely released. on the basis of the theory of the optimal currency area, the monetary regionalization means that a country's currency becomes a regional international currency and that the currency carries out international goods in the region Currency function. The currency regionalization is between the peripheral and the internationalization of the currency The process of RMB regionalization as studied in this paper means that, in the region of China and ASEAN, the RMB is the core circulation currency in the region through long-time monetary cooperation and competition, through long-time monetary cooperation and competition, and the trade-pricing and trade settlement are fulfilled. First of all, this paper expounds the significance of RMB's promotion of internationalization and regionalization under the background of the establishment of financial crisis and CAFTA, and then defines the concept of the ASEAN, China's ASEAN Free Trade Area and the RMB regionalization as discussed in this paper. The research literature, including the review of the optimal currency area in East Asia, the review of the economic effect of the CAFTA, and the trade-driven RMB regionalization Secondly, the paper sorts out the related theories of the trade development to promote the regionalization of the RMB, including the development of the theory of the optimal monetary area, and sums up the pricing knot of the international trade. On the basis of this theory, the role of trade development in the process of the internationalization of the euro, the US dollar and the Japanese yen is compared and analyzed, and the regional value of the RMB is summarized. The paper further analyses the favorable conditions for the RMB regionalization under the framework of the CAFTA: the RMB has been widely used in the ASEAN, the strong China's economic strength and the stable and strong the RMB, the rapid development of China's foreign trade, the East Asian currency The paper compares the difference between China and ASEAN's economic cycle, economic stability, trade and trade structure and so on by using the data and index, and examines the trade relation and production of the whole CAFTA in an empirical way. The trend of the growth is analyzed again, and the regional surface of the RMB under the framework of the CAFTA is analyzed. The main problems and challenges in China are the economic strength of our country, the competitiveness of foreign trade, the present situation of the financial system of our country, the network construction of the free trade area with the ASEAN as the center, the arrangement of the system and regulations of the ASEAN, and the system of the regionalization of the RMB in the United States and Japan. In the end, according to the above analysis, the strategy of RMB regionalization under the framework of CAFTA is put forward, from the country and the country The innovation of this paper is to try to carry out the endogenous test of the trade and output growth of countries in the region under the framework of the CAFTA, and to use the data to analyze the construction of the ASEAN A free-trade area network has an impact on China. The disadvantage of this paper is that, in dealing with the policy analysis, The operability of the proposed strategy has yet to be verified. There is a need for continued efforts in the future. In addition, due to limited capacity, some statistics are not available or the latest system is not available
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F741.2;F832.6

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