金融体系发展、金融结构深化与经济增长——基于63个国家样本的面板协整分析

发布时间：2019-07-28 18:15

【摘要】：本文利用25个0ECD国家与38个转型国家两个样本组1990～2008年的数据进行实证对比分析,研究发现:无论是OECD国家还是发展中国家都支持银行信贷与经济增长负向相关,银行对私人部门信贷与股票市场发展可以显著促进经济增长;发展中国家发展对金融资本的依赖程度高于发达国家,金融结构深化存在"溢出效应"。但过分采取信贷政策与财政政策扩张促进经济增长的途径具有不可持续性;在银行信贷市场化的同时政府必须加强金融监管,其中不仅仅包括银行信贷错配的问题,还需提防可能出现的导致对生产领域资本形成产生挤出效应的"过度金融"现象。在我国资本存量不甚丰富、市场化效率仍存在进一步改善的经济环境下,利用扩大银行信贷规模而获取规模报酬递增优势的做法并不现实,政府必须注意银行信贷行政配置与市场化手段之间的动态平衡关系。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 25 0ECD countries and 38 transition countries from 1990 to 2008, this paper makes an empirical comparative analysis. It is found that both OECD and developing countries support the negative correlation between bank credit and economic growth, and the development of private sector credit and stock market can significantly promote economic growth. The dependence of developing countries on financial capital is higher than that of developed countries, and there is spillover effect in deepening the financial structure. However, it is unsustainable to adopt excessive credit policy and fiscal policy expansion to promote economic growth. At the same time, the government must strengthen financial supervision while bank credit marketization, including not only the problem of bank credit mismatch, but also the possible phenomenon of "excessive finance", which may lead to crowding-out effect on the formation of capital in the field of production. In the economic environment in which the capital stock of our country is not very rich and the efficiency of marketization is still further improved, it is unrealistic to use the expansion of the scale of bank credit to obtain the advantage of increasing returns on scale. The government must pay attention to the dynamic balance relationship between the administrative allocation of bank credit and the means of marketization.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学商学院;
【基金】：华东师范大学优秀博士培养基金赞助(项目编号:2009034)
【分类号】：F224;F830

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