中国旅游发展与宏观经济增长的非线性时变因果关系——基于非线性马尔科夫区制转移因果模型

发布时间：2018-01-03 07:30

本文关键词：中国旅游发展与宏观经济增长的非线性时变因果关系——基于非线性马尔科夫区制转移因果模型　出处：《经济管理》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于1978—2016年的中国国际旅游人数与收入年度数据,1994—2016年的国内旅游人数与收入年度数据,以及对应样本区间的中国国内生产总值(GDP)年度数据,利用非线性马尔科夫区制转移因果(MSC)模型,测度改革开放以来,国际旅游发展与中国经济增长之间的非线性时变因果关系,以及1995年以来国内旅游发展与中国经济增长之间的因果关系,以期探究在中国宏观经济运行历程中,旅游业所扮演的角色。本文发现:总体上,旅游业发展有利于中国宏观经济增长,旅游收入增长率提升推动经济增长,旅游人数增长率提升微弱抑制经济增长,而旅游收入对经济增长的积极作用大于旅游人数对经济增长的抑制作用;国际旅游人数与宏观经济之间存在相互作用的持续性相较于其他类型因果关系更强;旅游发展与经济增长之间的因果关系随时间区制转移而变换,宏观经济大环境影响旅游业经济发展的可能性更大、时间更久,而旅游经济影响宏观经济的可能性相对较小、时间相对较短;国内发生的特殊事件只有对国内旅游人数的冲击,引发了旅游产业对整体宏观经济的影响,且宏观经济并未影响旅游业的发展;国际发生的特殊事件对国际与国内旅游发展的冲击,均引发了宏观经济对旅游业发展的影响。
[Abstract]:The 1978 - 2016 China international tourist number and income based on the annual data, the number of domestic tourism income and annual data from 1994 to 2016, and the corresponding sample interval Chinese GDP (GDP) annual data, by using the nonlinear Markoff transfer system for fruit (MSC) model, since the reform and opening up measure, nonlinear between international tourism with the development of economic growth Chinese time-varying causal relationship, and since 1995 the development of domestic tourism and economic growth Chinese causal relationship, in order to explore in the course of operation Chinese macro economic, tourism industry plays a role. The paper found that: Overall, the development of the tourism industry is conducive to Chinese macro economic growth, tourism revenue growth rate to enhance tourism to promote economic growth, the growth rate of the number of weak economic growth and enhance the inhibition, the positive role of tourism income to economic growth is more than the number of tourists The inhibitory effect on economic growth; persistent interaction between international tourism and economic compared with other types of causal relationship is stronger; the causal relationship between tourism development and economic growth with time zone system transfer and transformation, the macroeconomic environment of tourism industry the possibility of economic development is more and more long time. The possibility of macro economy tourism economic impact is relatively small, relatively short period of time; special events happening in the country only in the number of domestic tourism impact, causing the impact of tourism industry on the overall macroeconomic and macro economic development, did not affect the tourism industry; the impact of international special events occurred on the international and domestic tourism development. Are caused by the macroeconomic impact on the development of the tourism industry.

【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“引领经济发展新常态的市场基础、体制机制和发展方式研究”(15ZDC008) 国家自然科学基金面上项目“非线性状态空间混频数据模型在中国第三产业结构演变研究中的应用”(71573104) 吉林大学青年学术领袖培育计划项目“非线性状态空间混频数据模型在中国宏观经济研究中的应用”(2015FRLX15)
【分类号】：F124.1;F592
【正文快照】： 一、引言2008年金融危机以后,世界经济逐步走出低谷并进入全面复苏阶段。中国作为世界第二大经济体、第一大贸易国,经济的持续稳健增长不仅对自身发展意义重大,而且为世界经济复苏注入新的活力。伴随着原有规模效率模式的转变,经济结构不合理的矛盾凸显以及深层次问题的日益显

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