国际友城的入境游效应——来自中国38个客源国的经验证据

发布时间：2018-03-03 08:47

本文选题：国际友好城市　切入点：入境旅游　出处：《经济管理》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：国际友好城市(简称国际友城)活动是国与国之间一种重要的民间外交形式,亦是一种重要的国际旅游活动形式。本文首先分析了国际友城对入境游的作用机理,以及二者的时间耦合特征,其次利用1997—2014年中国38个主要客源国的面板数据,运用"固定效应回归"和"分位点回归",分别探讨了国际友城对中国入境旅游的平均效应和分位点效应。研究发现:(1)国际友城活动主要通过以经贸、文化等交流为主要内容的国际友好城市交流大会或国际友好城市市长论坛促进入境游客的增加,同时,也通过国家或相邻城市之间的空间溢出或示范效应促进入境旅游流的增加。(2)中国国际友城的空间分布呈明显的"2311"集聚特征。(3)国际友城活动对中国入境游具有显著促进作用。平均来看,在其他变量保持不变的条件下,国际友城累计数每增加1%,入境中国的外国游客将增加0.028%,这在实践中也是一个不小的效应。(4)国际友城活动对中国入境游的效应存在分位点差异,倒"U"型效应曲线特征明显。国际友城活动对中国入境游促进最大的是25%分位点(对应的国际友城数和入境外国游客数分别为6对和3.6万人次),其次沿着10%、50%、75%和90%分位点方向依次减弱,到达90%分位点处,促进作用变为负数。上述发现对中国在"十三五"期间的国际友城空间布局及入境旅游市场拓展方向具有重要的启示。
[Abstract]:International Friendship City is an important form of folk diplomacy among countries, and also an important form of international tourism. This paper first analyzes the mechanism of the action of International Friendship City on inbound tourism. And their temporal coupling characteristics, followed by panel data from 38 major guest countries in China from 1997 to 2014. By using "fixed effect regression" and "locus regression", this paper discusses the average and sub-site effects of International Friendship City on inbound tourism in China, respectively. It is found that: 1) International Friendship City activities are mainly carried out through trade and economic cooperation. Cultural exchanges as the main content of the International friendly City Exchange Conference or the International Forum of Mayors of friendly cities to promote the increase in inbound tourists at the same time, It also promotes the increase of inbound tourism flow through spatial spillover or demonstration effect between countries or adjacent cities. (2) the spatial distribution of China's International Friendship City shows obvious "2311" agglomeration characteristics. Promotion. On average, Under the condition that other variables remain unchanged, for each increase in the cumulative number of international friends, the number of foreign tourists entering China will increase by 0.0288.This is also a significant effect in practice. The characteristic of the inverted "U" effect curve is obvious. The most important contribution to China's inbound tour by the International Friendship activities is 25 loci (the corresponding number of international friends and foreign tourists are 6 pairs and 36,000 foreign tourists respectively, followed by 75% and 90% along the 1050g scale and 90 minutes respectively). The orientation of the locus decreased in turn, The above findings have important implications for the space layout of China's international friendship city during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and the direction of the development of the inbound tourism market.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学国际工商管理学院;湖南文理学院资源环境与旅游学院;上海师范大学旅游学院;
【分类号】：F125;F591

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