基于Logistic模型对TALC模型各阶段的定量划分——兼论美国十大国家公园的旅游生命周期模式

发布时间：2018-03-31 01:22

  本文选题：Logistic模型　切入点：TALC模型　出处：《旅游学刊》2017年06期

【摘要】：TALC模型是旅游学界讨论最多的模型之一,在诸多讨论的议题中,关于该模型各阶段的划分和确认一直是一个未能解决的难题。文章基于用Logistic模型解决TALC模型各阶段定量划分的目的,在运用微分知识分析Logistic模型数学性质的基础上,发现了该模型有3个时间节点。然后分析了Logistic模型对TALC模型各阶段的定量划分的适用性,并对美国十大国家公园上百年的时间序列数据进行回归分析,实证了美国十大国家公园的旅游生命周期模式。分析得出:(1)Logistic模型可以很好地拟合TALC模型的前5个阶段,即探查-参与阶段、发展阶段、巩固阶段、停滞阶段;(2)利用Logistic模型求得划分TALC模型的3个时间节点((a-1.317)/r,K/(4.732))、(a/r,K/2)、((a+1.317)/r,K/(1.268));(3)美国国家公园的旅游生命周期模式可以分为3类:Ⅰ型—标准型、Ⅱ型—断崖型、Ⅲ型—跳跃型。研究发现TALC模型各阶段可以进行定量划分和确认,文章得出的3个时间节点就是一次探索性尝试。
[Abstract]:TALC model is one of the most discussed models in tourism circles. Among the topics discussed, the division and confirmation of each stage of the model has been a difficult problem to be solved.Based on the purpose of solving the quantitative division of TALC model by using Logistic model and using differential knowledge to analyze the mathematical properties of Logistic model, this paper finds that the model has three time nodes.Then it analyzes the applicability of Logistic model to the quantitative division of each stage of the TALC model, and makes regression analysis on the time series data of the ten largest national parks in the United States for a hundred years, and proves the tourism life cycle model of the ten largest national parks in the United States.It is concluded that the first five stages of the TALC model can be well fitted by the Logistic model, namely, the exploratory stage, the stage of development, the stage of consolidation, the stage of exploration and participation, the stage of development and the stage of consolidation.The Logistic model is used to calculate the three time nodes that divide the TALC model into three types: type 鈪，

本文编号：1688534