基于空间计量模型的我国入境旅游影响因素与对策研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 06:24

本文选题：空间计量模型 + 入境旅游　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：入境旅游作为三大旅游市场(入境旅游、国内旅游、出境旅游)的一个重要组成部分,是解决就业以及赚取外汇的重要途径之一,同时也有利于提升知名度以及在国际上的影响力,在促进国际文化交流、扩大对外开放、民间往来、经贸互利、形象宣传等方面也发挥着重要的作用。我国入境旅游人数呈现波动上升情况,入境旅游国际市场呈现一定的下降趋势。此外,入境旅游的客源市场过于集中,港澳台同胞始终占主体地位(每年所占比重均在75%以上),国外客源市场的份额偏小。受2008年全球金融危机的影响,入境客源市场的份额出现下降。因此,深入分析我国入境旅游市场的现状,并识别国外客源市场来华旅游主要影响因素显得十分必要。本文首先对入境旅游的相关概念进行准确地界定,并详细地剖析近年来我国入境旅游业的现状。以往研究入境旅游影响因素主要集中在当地经济状况、交通状况、旅游资源、区位条件及地区接待能力等因素,本文在此基础上,结合实际情况,将环境因素纳入到考量范围之内。通过查阅国内外学者在入境旅游影响因素方面的研究基础上,结合经典的需求理论和调查报告,确定了研究的影响因素指标,定性地分析影响我国入境旅游的主要因素。过去对于我国入境旅游的研究方法大多是双对数模型、引力模型和灰色关联分析、亲景度分析等方法,本文先利用莫兰指数分析我国不同年份入境旅游空间分布情况,接着使用空间滞后模型和空间误差模型两种空间计量模型以及OLS方法分析我国入境旅游的主要影响因素。研究发现,影响我国入境旅游市场需求的主要因素为对外经济开放度、地区经济发展程度、旅游资源丰富程度、交通便利程度。此外,采用全域、局域、散点图和LISA聚类图刻画了我国各省域入境旅游的空间自相关性和空间分布模式,得出了我国入境旅游存在明显的正向空间效应。根据研究结论有针对性地提出相应的入境旅游政策建议,为国家旅游管理部门政策制定以及旅游企业决策提供理论依据。通过入境旅游现状分析显示,我国入境旅游人数和国际外汇收入呈现波动上升趋势。境外客源主要集中在亚洲、欧洲和美洲,人数达到国际游客的90%以上;男性游客占65%左右,年龄段主要集中在25—44岁和45—64岁两个年龄段,占到80%以上,25—44岁游客偏好于新奇刺激和体验型旅游活动,45—64岁游客更多集中商务和公费旅游;入境目的主要是观光休闲、会议、商务,比重达到50%以上;消费结构集中于长途交通、商品销售、住宿、娱乐和游览这五个方面,比例达到75%以上。入境旅游空间演变情况分析表明我国境外入境游客空间分布分异明显,位于第一、二梯度的主要是东部沿海省份,第三梯度主要位于中部、东北部西南部,第四梯度集中在我国西部,入境游客数量较少。境外人入境旅游大致呈现出东部高-西部低的空间格局。我国入境旅游在全局范围上具有明显的正向空间自相关性,而2013年后空间自相关性有减弱的趋势;局部上的空间相关性差异较大,高-高区域集中在东部地区,低-低区域集中在西部地区,且高-高区域比低-低区域少;随着年份的增加,出现了低-高与高-低的区域。通过对入境旅游影响因素实证研究,结果显示入境旅游显著影响因素为对外经济开放程度、地区经济发展程度、旅游资源丰富程度以及交通便利程度。最后本文通过入境旅游现状分析、入境旅游空间演变情况和影响因素实证研究,提出了推进区域旅游一体化、构建旅游开放新格局、推动地区经济建设、整合地方特色旅游资源、加快我国航空等交通基础设施建设等对策建议。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the three major tourist markets (inbound tourism, domestic tourism and outbound tourism), inbound tourism is one of the important ways to solve employment and earn foreign exchange. It also helps to improve the popularity and international influence in promoting international communication, opening to the outside world, private exchanges, and economic and trade mutual benefit. The number of inbound tourism in China has also played an important role. The number of inbound tourism in China has fluctuated and the international market of inbound tourism has shown a downward trend. In addition, the tourist market of inbound tourism is too concentrated, the compatriots in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan have always occupied the main position (more than 75% of each year), and the share of the foreign tourist market is small. Under the influence of the global financial crisis in 2008, the share of the entry passenger market has declined. Therefore, it is very necessary to analyze the current situation of China's inbound tourism market and identify the main factors that affect the tourist market in China. This paper first defines the relevant concept of inbound tourism accurately and analyzes in detail in recent years. The influence factors of inbound tourism in the past are mainly concentrated on the local economic conditions, traffic conditions, tourism resources, location conditions and regional reception ability. On this basis, the environmental factors are included in the scope of consideration in combination with the actual situation. On the basis of the research on the factors of noise, combining the classical demand theory and the investigation report, the influencing factors of the study are determined and the main factors affecting the inbound tourism in China are qualitatively analyzed. The methods of studying the inbound tourism in China are mostly double logarithmic model, gravitational model and grey correlation analysis, and the method of affinity analysis, etc. This paper first uses the Mulan index to analyze the spatial distribution of inbound tourism in different years in China, and then uses the spatial lag model and spatial error model two spatial econometric models and the OLS method to analyze the main influencing factors of China's inbound tourism. The study finds that the main factors affecting the demand of China's inbound tourism market are foreign economy. In addition, the spatial autocorrelation and spatial distribution pattern of inbound tourism in all provinces of our country are depicted by the whole domain, local area, scatter plot and LISA cluster diagram, and the obvious positive spatial effect of inbound tourism in China is obtained. According to the status analysis of inbound tourism, it shows that the number of inbound tourism and international foreign exchange income in China is fluctuating. The number of overseas passenger owners should be concentrated in Asia, Europe and America. More than 90% of international tourists, male tourists account for about 65%, age group is mainly concentrated in 25 to 44 years and two ages of 45 to 64 years, accounting for more than 80%, 25 to 44 years old tourists prefer new exciting and experiential tourism activities. The tourists of 45 - 64 years of age are more concentrated on business and public travel. The main purpose of entry is sightseeing, meeting, business, and weight. To more than 50%, the consumption structure is concentrated on the five aspects of long distance transportation, commodity sale, accommodation, entertainment and sightseeing. The analysis of the evolution of the inbound tourist space shows that the spatial distribution of the foreign tourists in China is distinct, and the first, second gradient is located in the eastern coastal province, and the third gradient is mainly in the middle, East and the East. In the southwestern part of the north, the fourth gradient is concentrated in the western part of China, and the number of inbound tourists is relatively small. The inbound tourism of the overseas people generally presents a spatial pattern of low East and West. China's inbound tourism has an obvious positive spatial autocorrelation in the global scope, and the spatial autocorrelation has a weakening trend after 2013, and the spatial correlation in the local area is related to the spatial correlation. The difference is large, the high and high region is concentrated in the eastern region, the low low region is concentrated in the western region, and the high to high region is less than the low low region. With the increase of the year, the low to high and high low region appears. Through the empirical study on the influence factors of inbound tourism, the results show that the significant influence factors of inbound tourism are the degree of opening to the outside economy. The degree of economic development, the richness of tourism resources and the convenience of transportation. Finally, through the analysis of the status of inbound tourism and the empirical study of the evolution of inbound tourism and the influencing factors, this paper puts forward the integration of regional tourism, the construction of a new pattern of tourism opening, the economic construction of the land area, the integration of local tourism resources, and the acceleration of the tourism resources of local characteristics. China's aviation and other transportation infrastructure construction and other countermeasures and suggestions.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F592

【参考文献】