浙江省旅游经济影响因素实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-25 14:51

本文选题：旅游经济 + 主成分回归　；参考：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2016年中国国内旅游总收入高达3.9万亿元,旅游外汇收入达1200亿美元,这些数据说明上个世纪末开始兴起的旅游业发展至今创造的经济收入越来越多,发展的速度越来越迅猛,并且旅游收入增长已经成为了推动国民经济增长的极大助动力。作为GDP增速首屈一指的浙江省,旅游收入的增长速度大大的超过了生产总值的增长速度。除此之外,浙江省独特的地理位置和自然资源的优势以及先进的发展观念使其在发展旅游业方面更加具有优势。在十多年的发展过程中,浙江省给出的成绩也不负众望,遥遥领先于其他资源禀赋优于本省的省会。尽管近几年浙江省的旅游收入所占比重大,增速快,但依然出现了不稳定和不持续的趋势,对外界干扰所做出的自我调整能力比较弱。并且,即使在资源禀赋相近的条件下,浙江省各个城市之间的旅游经济收入差距比较大。于是,出现了以下一些疑问,浙江省总体旅游经济发展较好,但是不同区域的发展情况是怎样的?这些区域的差异性是否呈现某些特定的规律?到底是什么样的因素影响着浙江省旅游经济的发展?这些因素对浙江省旅游经济发展的影响程度是一样的,还是各有差异?在以后对旅游经济的发展过程中,应该怎样对待不同的因素?虽然研究旅游经济的文献有很多,但是具体到浙江省的却并没有。故此,本文在介绍浙江省整省和11个市旅游经济发展的现状基础上,通过收集旅游相关数据和建立主成分非线性回归模型和灰色关联度模型探讨影响浙江省旅游经济发展的因素。最终得出这些因素对其影响程度,给旅游市场的发展以借鉴。主要安排如下:第一章研究综述和相关理论介绍国内外的研究综述和相关的理论。这部分内容主要是提供一些方法和思路的借鉴和所需要的相关理论。第二章浙江省旅游发展分析这部分从浙江省的实际角度出发,分析了11个市的数据,整理浙江省的旅游发展规律。第三章浙江省旅游经济增长因素分析从定量的角度,利用数据整理和模型建立分析各类因素对浙江省旅游经济发展的影响程度,引导今后浙江省的旅游发展第四章主要结论和讨论给出文章的一些主要结论
[Abstract]:China's domestic tourism revenue reached 3.9 trillion yuan in 2016 and tourism foreign exchange income reached 120 billion US dollars. These figures show that the tourism industry, which began to rise at the end of the last century, has generated more and more economic income and has been developing more and more rapidly. And the growth of tourism income has become a great help to promote the growth of the national economy. As the GDP growth rate of Zhejiang Province, the growth rate of tourism income is much faster than the growth rate of gross domestic product. In addition, Zhejiang's unique geographical location, natural resources and advanced concept of development make it more advantageous in the development of tourism. In the course of more than a decade of development, Zhejiang Province's achievements have not fallen short of expectations, far ahead of other resource endowments, which are superior to those of the provincial capital. Although the proportion of tourism income in Zhejiang Province is large and the growth rate is fast in recent years, there is still an unstable and unsustainable trend, and the ability to make self-adjustment to external disturbance is relatively weak. Moreover, even under the condition of similar resource endowment, the income gap of tourism economy among cities in Zhejiang Province is quite large. As a result, there are some questions, Zhejiang Province as a whole tourism economic development is good, but the development of different regions is how? Do the differences in these regions show certain laws? What kind of factors affect the development of tourism economy in Zhejiang Province? Are these factors affecting the development of tourism economy in Zhejiang Province to the same extent, or are they different? How to deal with different factors in the development of tourism economy in the future? Although there are a lot of literature on tourism economy, but not in Zhejiang Province. Therefore, on the basis of introducing the current situation of tourism economy development in Zhejiang Province as a whole and in 11 cities, Based on the collection of tourism data and the establishment of principal component nonlinear regression model and grey relational degree model, the factors influencing the development of tourism economy in Zhejiang Province are discussed. Finally, the influence of these factors on its degree, to the development of the tourism market to draw lessons. The main contents are as follows: the first chapter introduces the research review and related theories at home and abroad. This part is mainly to provide some methods and ideas for reference and the need for relevant theories. The second chapter analyzes the tourism development of Zhejiang Province from the point of view of the actual situation of Zhejiang Province, analyzes the data of 11 cities, and collates the rules of tourism development in Zhejiang Province. The third chapter analyzes the factors of tourism economic growth in Zhejiang Province from the perspective of quantitative analysis, using data collation and modeling to analyze the impact of various factors on the development of tourism economy in Zhejiang Province. Guiding the Tourism Development of Zhejiang Province in the Future Chapter IV main conclusions and discussion some main conclusions of the article
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F592.7

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