我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 20:02

本文选题：旅游环境承载力 + 预警　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：随着世界经济发展和社会文明进步，统筹经济、社会、生态和环境系统协调可持续发展逐渐成为全球热点问题。我国沿海地区是旅游经济发展格局中最具活力和潜力的核心地区，旅游业在推进区域经济发展、海洋开发、海陆一体化与“新东部”建设起到不可替代的作用。但是沿海地区旅游业的发展也给沿海生态环境带来了巨大压力，旅游超载现象较为普遍，造成现代“城市病”、海陆环境污染、生态系统失衡等问题。因而如何提高沿海地区旅游环境承载能力、预防调控旅游超载或弱载问题、促进海陆生态环境与旅游产业协同发展具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。鉴于此，将预警理论引入到旅游环境承载力研究领域，借鉴生态学、环境经济学、可持续发展理论和主体功能区划等理论，在梳理国内外旅游环境承载力预警研究进展的基础上，结合旅游环境承载力预警的理论解析，采用系统动力学仿真方法，对我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警系统进行模拟分析，并提出相应发展对策，有助于弥补我国旅游环境承载力预警研究的不足，为缓解我国沿海地区旅游环境超负荷承载问题、推动旅游开发与环境保护协调发展提供理论依据和方法参考。主要内容如下：（1）旅游环境承载力预警的理论基础。系统解析旅游环境承载力与旅游环境承载力预警的相关概念，详细阐述旅游环境承载力预警研究的理论基础，分析旅游环境承载力评价与预测方法，探讨旅游环境承载力预警系统的内涵、构成（旅游资源环境承载力、旅游生态环境承载力、旅游经济环境承载力和旅游社会环境承载力四大预警子系统）、特征及运行机制（利用控制图方法划分弱载区、成长区、健康区、适载区和超载区5个预警区间）。（2）我国沿海地区旅游业发展环境分析。分析我国沿海地区旅游业发展的基础环境，包括经济实力、资源环境、政策制度，从旅游资源及其开发类型、旅游产业发展水平、旅游产品体系等探讨旅游业发展现状，探讨旅游业发展对土地环境、水体环境、生物环境、大气环境和社会环境的影响。（3）旅游环境承载力预警评价指标体系与预警仿真模型。深入分析旅游环境承载力预警系统内外部环境要素，建立由50个指标组成的评价指标体系，确定指标权重与标准，运用状态空间评价法、综合指数法定量测度旅游环境承载力预警指数，构建系统动力学动态仿真模型，确定系统目标及边界，绘制因果关系反馈图，确定8个状态变量、8个速率变量、66个辅助变量和113个常量，编写旅游环境承载力预警系统方程，并通过基于历史数据检验方法的合理性检验。（4）我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警SD仿真分析。根据旅游环境承载力预警仿真模型，针对沿海11个省、市、自治区，以2004年为基准年，运用Vensim软件对区域旅游环境承载力进行模拟仿真，确定警界区间，判断2004-2025年间区域旅游环境承载力预警指数的时序变化、空间差异和空间关联，并设计4类调控方案，通过仿真比较，探讨我国沿海地区旅游业的发展模式。（5）我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警管理。从构建预警管理信息系统、完善法制管理体系、协调利益相关者关系、优化系统内部环境和划分旅游主体功能区等方面提出旅游环境承载力预警管理措施，保障预警系统正常运行。
[Abstract]:Along with the development of the world economy and the progress of social civilization , the coordinated sustainable development of economic , social , ecological and environmental systems has gradually become a global hotspot . The coastal area of our country is the most dynamic and potential core region in the development of tourism economy .

In view of this , the early - warning theory is introduced into the research field of the bearing capacity of tourism environment , and based on the theories of ecology , environmental economics , sustainable development theory and main function regionalization , this paper analyzes the early warning system of tourism environment carrying capacity at home and abroad , and puts forward the corresponding development countermeasures , which will help to make up the shortage of early warning research on the carrying capacity of tourism environment in our country , and provide theoretical basis and method reference for the development of tourism environment in our country and the coordinated development of environmental protection . The main contents are as follows :

( 1 ) Theoretical basis of the early warning of the bearing capacity of tourism environment . The system analyzes the relevant concepts of the carrying capacity of tourism environment and the early warning of the carrying capacity of tourism environment , and expounds the connotation , characteristics and operating mechanism of the early warning system for the bearing capacity of tourism environment , the bearing capacity of tourism ecological environment , the carrying capacity of tourism economic environment and the carrying capacity of tourist social environment , and the characteristics and operating mechanism ( divided by the control chart method to divide the weak load area , the growth area , the health area , the adaptive loading area and the overload area 5 early warning intervals ) .

( 2 ) Analysis of tourism development environment in coastal areas of China . The basic environment of tourism development in China ' s coastal areas is analyzed , including economic strength , resource environment and policy system . The present situation of tourism development is discussed from tourism resource and its development type , tourism industry development level , tourism product system , etc . , and the impacts of tourism development on land environment , water environment , biological environment , atmospheric environment and social environment are discussed .

( 3 ) Early warning evaluation index system and early warning simulation model for the bearing capacity of tourism environment . An evaluation index system consisting of 50 indexes is analyzed in depth , and the indexes weight and standard are established . The system dynamics dynamic simulation model is established , the target and boundary of the system are determined , the causal relationship feedback map is established , 8 state variables , 8 rate variables , 66 auxiliary variables and 113 constants are drawn , and the rationality test based on the historical data verification method is established .

( 4 ) An early - warning SD simulation analysis of the carrying capacity of tourism environment in coastal areas of China . According to the simulation model of the bearing capacity of tourism environment , the paper simulates the carrying capacity of regional tourism environment by using Vensim software in the base year of 2004 , determines the interval of the police , and judges the timing change , spatial difference and spatial correlation of the regional tourism environment carrying capacity early warning index between 2004 and 2025 , and designs the four kinds of control schemes . Through simulation comparison , the development mode of tourism in coastal areas of China is discussed .

( 5 ) Early warning management of the carrying capacity of tourism environment in coastal areas of our country . From the construction of early warning management information system , perfecting the legal system of legal system , coordinating stakeholder relations , optimizing the internal environment of the system and dividing the main function area of tourism , this paper puts forward the early warning management measures for carrying capacity of tourism environment , and guarantees the normal operation of early warning system .

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X26;F592.7

【参考文献】