湖北省城市旅游竞争力分析与预测

发布时间：2018-04-30 13:16

本文选题：城市旅游竞争力 + 湖北省　；参考：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国城镇化水平的加快和人民生活水平的提高,旅游在人们的日常生活中已由原来的类似奢侈消费发展到现在成为稀松平常的日常行为。在城市旅游蓬勃发展的现阶段,各个城市旅游的竞争日益激烈,对城市旅游竞争力的研究也显得越发重要。旅游作为第三产业的代表产业之一,很大程度上体现出地区经济发展水平。湖北省旅游资源丰富,但旅游业发展处于全国中游水平,旅游竞争力徘徊不前,提升乏力,因此很有必要对湖北省旅游竞争力进行评价与预测,为湖北省旅游业未来五年发展提供理论依据,在激烈的市场竞争中稳步向前。本文在参考大量国内外相关领域的文献资料的基础上,运用旅游学、经济学等基础理论,探讨了城市旅游竞争力的影响要素,借鉴波特竞争力模型与倪鹏飞教授的城市竞争力评价体系,构建了评价城市旅游竞争力的指标体系,从硬性因素与软性因素两方面来分析,其中硬性因素分为旅游产业竞争力,旅游资源竞争力,基础设施竞争力与城市环境竞争力4个二级指标;软性因素分为人才竞争力,资本竞争力,开放竞争力与管理竞争力4个二级指标,再细分为40个三级指标,采用SPSS19.0软件中的因子分析方法对湖北省12个城市的旅游竞争力进行定量评价,算出得分,得出12个城市硬性因素、软性因素与总体的排名,对2010-2014年的五年旅游竞争力进行动态变化评价。采用聚类分析法对12市进行分类,更好反映各城市旅游竞争力差异程度。并在此基础上应用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对12个城市未来发展趋势进行预测,最后提出针对性的战略对策,以期提升湖北省的总体城市旅游竞争力,促进湖北省旅游经济更快更好地发展。本文主要研究结论如下:(1)旅游产业竞争力、城市环境竞争力与人才竞争力在城市旅游竞争力上载荷高,对旅游竞争力影响较大;相比之下资本竞争力与开放竞争力影响小。(2)武汉与宜昌位居全省城市旅游竞争力前两名,带动了全省旅游业的发展,其余10个城市旅游竞争力均在全省平均水平之下,排名最后三位分别是咸宁、荆门和鄂州。(3)根据2010年-2014年五年动态变化分析可知,鄂州旅游竞争力下降较快,相比之下孝感与随州提升迅速。(4)2015年-2019年未来五年中武汉、十堰、宜昌、襄阳、鄂州、荆州、咸宁旅游竞争力不同程度下降;黄石、荆门、孝感、黄冈与随州城市旅游竞争力则缓慢上升。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization and the improvement of people's living standards, tourism has developed from the former luxury consumption to the usual daily behavior in people's daily life. At the present stage of the vigorous development of urban tourism, the competition of urban tourism is becoming increasingly fierce, and the research on the competitiveness of urban tourism is becoming more and more important. Tourism, as one of the representative industries of the tertiary industry, largely reflects the level of regional economic development. Hubei Province is rich in tourism resources, but tourism development is in the middle of the national level, tourism competitiveness is hesitant and weak, so it is necessary to evaluate and forecast the tourism competitiveness of Hubei Province. It provides a theoretical basis for the development of Hubei tourism in the next five years and advances steadily in the fierce market competition. On the basis of reference to a large number of literature in related fields at home and abroad, this paper discusses the factors influencing the competitiveness of urban tourism by using the basic theories of tourism science and economics. Based on Porter's competitiveness model and Professor Ni Pengfei's evaluation system of urban competitiveness, this paper constructs an index system to evaluate the competitiveness of urban tourism, and analyzes it from two aspects: hard factor and soft factor, among which the hard factor is divided into the competitiveness of tourism industry. Tourism resource competitiveness, infrastructure competitiveness and urban environmental competitiveness are four secondary indicators; soft factors are divided into four secondary indicators: talent competitiveness, capital competitiveness, open competitiveness and management competitiveness, and are further subdivided into 40 tertiary indicators. The factor analysis method in SPSS19.0 software is used to quantitatively evaluate the tourism competitiveness of 12 cities in Hubei Province. The scores are calculated and the hard factors, soft factors and overall ranking of 12 cities are obtained. This paper evaluates the five-year tourism competitiveness in 2010-2014. Cluster analysis was used to classify 12 cities to better reflect the different degree of tourism competitiveness of each city. On the basis of this, the future development trend of 12 cities is forecasted by using the grey forecast GM1 / 1) model. Finally, the corresponding strategic countermeasures are put forward in order to enhance the overall competitiveness of urban tourism in Hubei Province. Promote Hubei Province tourism economy to develop faster and better. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) the competitiveness of tourism industry, urban environmental competitiveness and talent competitiveness in urban tourism competitiveness is high load, the impact on tourism competitiveness is greater; In contrast, Wuhan and Yichang are among the top two cities in the province's tourism competitiveness, which has led to the development of the province's tourism industry, while the other 10 cities' tourism competitiveness is below the average level of the province. The last three places are Xianning, Jingmen and Ezhou, respectively. According to the analysis of the five years' dynamic changes from 2010 to 2014, the tourism competitiveness of Ezhou has declined more rapidly, compared with Xiaogan and Suizhou. 4) in the next five years from 2015 to 2019, Wuhan, Shiyan, The tourism competitiveness of Yichang, Xiangyang, Ezhou, Jingzhou and Xianning declined in varying degrees, while the tourism competitiveness of Huangshi, Jingmen, Xiaogan, Huanggang and Suizhou increased slowly.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F592.7

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