农业与旅游业耦合模型构建及实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-24 17:28

本文选题：农业 + 旅游业　；参考：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年07期

【摘要】：[目的]通过建立向量自回归模型(VAR模型),试图定量分析农业与旅游业的耦合关系。[方法]文章选取反映农业与旅游发展水平的当地农业收入、国内旅游收入、入境旅游收入、国内旅游人数、入境旅游人数等指标为研究变量,构建VAR模型。并以2006~2015年徐州市农业与旅游业相关变量数据,对该模型进行JJ检验、英格兰因果检验及变量方差分解,以开展徐州市农业与旅游业之间耦合关系分析。[结果]徐州农业与旅游业初步呈现耦合发展现象,同时耦合程度在不断增强;徐州市农业的发展对旅游业的发展促进作用较大,但是旅游业对农业的发展促进作用并不明显。[结论]VAR模型检验结果与徐州市农业与旅游业耦合发展实际情况基本一致,VAR模型可有效应用于分析农业与旅游业之间的耦合关系。
[Abstract]:[objective] to establish a vector autoregressive model (VAR) to quantitatively analyze the coupling relationship between agriculture and tourism. [methods] the VAR model was constructed by selecting local agricultural income, domestic tourism income, inbound tourism income, domestic tourism population and inbound tourism population as the research variables, which reflected the development level of agriculture and tourism. Based on the data of agricultural and tourism variables in Xuzhou from 2006 to 2015, the JJ test, England causality test and variance decomposition were used to analyze the coupling relationship between agriculture and tourism in Xuzhou. [results] the development of agriculture and tourism in Xuzhou showed the phenomenon of coupling development, and the degree of coupling was increasing, and the development of agriculture in Xuzhou had a great effect on the development of tourism, but the role of tourism in promoting the development of agriculture was not obvious. [conclusion] the test results of VAR model are basically consistent with the actual situation of the coupling development of agriculture and tourism in Xuzhou. The model can be used to analyze the coupling relationship between agriculture and tourism effectively.
【作者单位】：徐州工程学院管理学院;
【基金】：江苏省教育厅2012年度高校哲学社会科学研究指导项目“基于GIS的旅游资源开发功能分区研究——以徐州市为例”(2012SJD630109) 2014年度徐州市哲学社会科学研究课题“新型城镇化背景下徐州城郊旅游发展研究”(14XSM-009)
【分类号】：F224;F327;F592.7

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