基于引力模型的我国入境旅游影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 01:47

本文选题：入境旅游 + 引力模型　；参考：《海南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济的快速发展和国际贸易自由化趋势的加强,各个国家之间日益密切的交流推动了旅游经济的迅速发展。同时,伴随着人们整体收入水平的提高,世界各国的人们更加关注于旅游,以满足高层次的精神需求,使得旅游业已经逐步成为世界经济的支柱产业。我国自改革开放以来,吸取并且借鉴国外的旅游产业发展的经验,利用我国丰富的自然资源和人文资源,促进了旅游产业规模的不断扩大,并且取得了辉煌的成就,使我国逐渐成为国际旅游贸易大国。然而,我国的经济和社会都融入了全球化的浪潮中,入境旅游不可避免的面临着来自国际的激烈竞争,再加上旅游产业的易波动性,容易受到诸多外在因素的影响,弱化了我国入境旅游产业在国际上的竞争力。因此,深入分析影响我国入境旅游的各个因素,并且在此基础上,对如何促进我国入境旅游的快速发展进行研究具有相当的紧迫性和必要性。本文首先对国内外关于入境旅游的研究进行了归纳和总结,接着根据统计数据归纳分析了出我国近十一年来的入境旅游发展状况,并且定性的对我国入境旅游的影响因素进行分析。其次,针对影响我国入境旅游的经济变量和非经济变量,收集了日本、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、美国等十一个我国主要的客源国家近十一年的相关数据,对影响我国入境旅游的因素进行实证分析,并且采用剔除法对影响不显著的因素进行剔除,构建出适合我国入境旅游的引力模型,并且可以测算出各个因素影响我国入境旅游的程度大小。研究结果表明,量化后的文化距离和汇率对我国入境旅游影响不显著,客源国家和我国的国内生产总值、奥运会和世博会的召开对我国入境旅游产生积极的影响,空间距离、我国旅游产品的价格、非典和国际金融危机的爆发则与我国入境旅游呈负相关。最后,通过对实证研究的结果,本文从合理价格的制定、完善的危机管理机制、拓宽入境旅游渠道、关注客源国经济发展变化和加强自身经济建设这五个方面对我国入境旅游的持续、健康、快速发展提出了相关的政策意见和建议,以增强我国旅游业在国际市场上的竞争力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of global economy and the strengthening of the trend of international trade liberalization, the increasingly close communication between various countries has promoted the rapid development of tourism economy. At the same time, with the improvement of people's overall income level, people all over the world pay more attention to tourism in order to meet the high level of spiritual needs, so that tourism has gradually become the pillar industry of the world economy. Since the reform and opening up, our country has absorbed and used for reference the experience of the development of foreign tourism industry, utilized the rich natural resources and human resources of our country, promoted the continuous expansion of the scale of the tourism industry, and obtained the glorious achievement. Make our country gradually become a big country of international tourism trade. However, the economy and society of our country are all integrated into the tide of globalization. The inbound tourism inevitably faces fierce competition from the international community. In addition, the volatility of the tourism industry is easy to be influenced by many external factors. Weakened the international competitiveness of China's inbound tourism industry. Therefore, it is of great urgency and necessity to study how to promote the rapid development of inbound tourism in China. This paper first summarizes the research on inbound tourism at home and abroad, and then, according to the statistical data, summarizes and analyzes the development of inbound tourism in China in the past 11 years. And qualitative analysis of the impact factors of inbound tourism in China. Secondly, in view of the economic and non-economic variables that affect China's inbound tourism, the relevant data of 11 major tourist countries in China, such as Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and the United States, have been collected over the past 11 years. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting inbound tourism in China, and adopts the elimination method to remove the factors that are not significant, and constructs a gravitational model suitable for inbound tourism in China. And can measure each factor to affect the degree of our country's inbound tourism. The results show that the quantitative cultural distance and exchange rate have no significant impact on China's inbound tourism. The gross domestic product (GDP) of tourist countries and China, the Olympic Games and the holding of the World Expo have a positive impact on the inbound tourism in China. The price of tourism products, SARS and the outbreak of international financial crisis are negatively correlated with inbound tourism in China. Finally, through the empirical research results, this article from the reasonable price formulation, the perfect crisis management mechanism, broadens the inbound tourism channel, In order to enhance the competitiveness of China's tourism industry in the international market, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions and suggestions on the sustained, healthy and rapid development of inbound tourism from the five aspects of paying close attention to the economic development and changes of guest countries and strengthening their own economic construction.
【学位授予单位】：海南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592

【参考文献】