中国入境旅游外汇收入影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-06 14:26

本文选题：入境旅游 + 旅游外汇收入　；参考：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2013年10月1日,《中华人民共和国旅游法》的颁布有利于整顿旅游市场秩序,创造公平竞争环境,有利于经营者对服务质量的关注以及消费者对服务价值的认同,也有助于中国在入境游市场树立良好形象。改革开放30多年来,我国入境旅游取得了快速的发展,突出表现在入境旅游的人数逐年增加,入境旅游外汇收入屡创历史新高,其已经成为我国旅游收入中重要组成部分。据旅游局统计,2012年1-12月,我国大陆的入境游客已经达到13240万人次,创造了500多亿美元的收入,居世界第四位。根据WTO预测,到2020年我国将成为世界最大的旅游目的地。由此可以推测,我国入境旅游在未来还将会有很大的提升空间。随着入境旅游人数持续攀升,入境旅游外汇收入也将会不断增加。所以,研究入境旅游外汇收入对中国旅游业的健康可持续发展具有重要意义,还可以为增强我国国际市场竞争力,扩大入境旅游市场影响提供参考性意见。因此,本文通过运用计量经济学的方法选取相关变量,定量分析影响中国入境旅游外汇收入的因素,有助于政府制定相关促进旅游业发展的政策,进而推动整个旅游业的发展。本文一共分为五个部分,第一部分,系统回顾国内外有关入境旅游以及入境旅游外汇收入相关研究。第二部分,主要对旅游、入境旅游、入境旅游外汇收入的相关概念以及定义进行界定,并分析了近年来我国入境旅游的发展现状,以及我国入境旅游外汇收入的发展现状。第三部分,对影响我国入境旅游外汇收入的相关因素进行初步分析,并选取本文所需要的五个变量。第四部分,选取《中国旅游统计年鉴》以及《中国统计摘要》所披露的1978-2013年我国入境旅游外汇收入及其构成的数据,通过对数据分析,用计量经济学理论选取变量,运用EVIEWS6.0软件,对影响中国入境旅游外汇收入影响因素进行实证分析,得出合理的经济学意义解释。通过分析得出影响入境旅游外汇收入的主要因素有入境过夜游客人数和国际航线里程、入境旅游人数、汇率、居民消费者价格指数等因素。结果表明,我国国际航线里程数与入境旅游外汇收入正相关,即国际航线里程数增加,入境旅游外汇收入提高,反之亦然,并且对我国目前入境旅游消费结构进行了分析。第五部分,利用前文实证分析得出的结论,对我国入境旅游中现存的问题以及面临的挑战、处于的市场竞争环境与机遇,以及提升入境旅游创汇能力,使旅游产业健康可持续发展,提出了科学合理的建议。
[Abstract]:On October 1, 2013, the promulgation of the Tourism Law of the people's Republic of China is conducive to rectifying the order of the tourism market, creating a fair competitive environment, and helping the operators to pay attention to the service quality and the consumers' recognition of the service value. It also helps China to establish a good image in the inbound travel market. Since the reform and opening up for more than 30 years, China's inbound tourism has made rapid development, which is highlighted by the increase in the number of inbound tourism year by year and the record high foreign exchange income of inbound tourism, which has become an important part of our country's tourism income. From January to December 2012, China's mainland had 132.4 million inbound tourists, generating more than $50 billion in income, ranking fourth in the world, according to the Tourism Bureau. According to WTO forecast, China will become the world's largest tourist destination by 2020. From this we can infer that China's inbound tourism will also have a lot of room for improvement in the future. As the number of inbound tourists continues to rise, foreign exchange earnings from inbound tourism will continue to increase. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism for the healthy and sustainable development of Chinese tourism. It can also provide reference advice for enhancing the competitiveness of China's international market and expanding the impact of inbound tourism market. Therefore, through the econometrics method to select the relevant variables, quantitative analysis of the factors affecting China's inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings will help the government to formulate relevant policies to promote the development of tourism, and then promote the development of the whole tourism industry. This paper is divided into five parts. The first part systematically reviews the domestic and foreign related research on inbound tourism and foreign exchange earnings of inbound tourism. The second part mainly defines the related concepts and definitions of tourism, inbound tourism foreign exchange income, and analyzes the current situation of China's inbound tourism development in recent years, as well as the current situation of China's inbound tourism foreign exchange income development. In the third part, the author makes a preliminary analysis of the related factors affecting the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism in China, and selects the five variables needed in this paper. In the fourth part, we select the data of China's inbound tourism foreign exchange income and its composition from 1978 to 2013, which are disclosed in the Yearbook of China Tourism Statistics and the Statistical Abstract of China. Through the analysis of the data, we choose the variables by econometrics theory. By using EVIEWS6.0 software, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism in China, and draws a reasonable explanation of economic significance. The main factors influencing the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism are the number of inbound overnight tourists and the mileage of international routes, the number of inbound tourists, the exchange rate, the consumer price index and so on. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the number of international airline mileage and the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism, that is, the increase of international airline mileage, the increase of inbound tourism foreign exchange income, and vice versa, and the analysis of the current structure of inbound tourism consumption in China. The fifth part, using the conclusions of the empirical analysis above, to the existing problems and challenges in inbound tourism, in the market competition environment and opportunities, as well as to enhance the ability of inbound tourism to earn foreign exchange. Scientific and reasonable suggestions are put forward to make tourism industry develop healthily and sustainably.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592;F832.6

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