安徽省旅游经济增长因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-11 17:16

【摘要】：近20年来,随着旅游业发展成为我国上下普遍关注的热点,安徽省旅游业获得了快速发展。对安徽省地区经济贡献也不断增大,成为安徽省地区经济增长的主要驱动力之一。充分发挥安徽省在自然、气候环境、地理等方面的优势,重点发展旅游业,增加旅游收入,进而可以促进安徽省地区经济的发展。作为安徽省高度重视的产业之一,虽然近年来,安徽省旅游经济增长的速度比较快,但是其增长的波动性也比较大,容易受到外界因素的干扰。并且对于安徽省内部各地市来说,旅游经济的增长又存在着较大的地区差异。于是,本人便有了下面一些疑问。怎样才能保持安徽省旅游经济稳定且持续地增长?安徽省各地市旅游经济能否获得协同增长?决定安徽省全区及各地市旅游经济增长的因素又是什么?从目前的研究成果来看,还未有学者对安徽省上述的这些问题进行系统的研究。因此,本文在深入认识安徽省旅游经济增长现状的基础上,通过建立非线性主成分回归模型探索安徽省旅游经济增长的主要影响因素,采用灰色关联分析方法进一步研究影响安徽省各地市旅游经济增长因素及其之间可能存在的差异,最后得出结论,希望通过本文的研究能提出一些针对性的对策建议,从而促进安徽省全区旅游经济的稳定持续增长及地区旅游经济协同增长。本文的主要内容安排如下：第一章绪论。主要包括研究课题的背景、对相关的研究进展进行述评、研究的意义、研究所采用的方法、研究思路与创新点。相关研究文献的回顾与评述包括经济增长因素的研究、旅游经济增长的理论研究和旅游经济增长因素的定量研究,这部分主要是为本文的研究课题提供思路上的参考。第二章相关理论基础与重要概念的界定。阐述与本论文研究课题相关的理论基础及核心概念。核心概念围绕着研究课题展开的,包括经济增长、经济增长机制和经济增长模型等概念。理论基础方面,除了介绍了主流的经济增长理论外,还涉及到区域增长极理论和区域不平衡增长理论。本章是本文的理论基础部分,为本论文对旅游经济增长因素的研究提供理论上的指导。第三章描述安徽省旅游经济增长的现状。分析的视角包括安徽省整体和地区两个方面。安徽省全区旅游经济增长现状的分析,包括全区旅游经济增长的基本特点、旅游经济增长速度是否稳定持久以及旅游经济增长对地区经济增长的贡献情况。安徽省各地市旅游经济增长的空间格局分析,主要分析了各地市旅游经济在规模和增长速度上是否存在明显差异以及两者之间是否存在相关性,并从绝对差异和相对差异角度进一步分析了各地市旅游经济增长差异的变迁。第四章探索安徽省旅游经济增长因素并测算因素的贡献率。本章结合经济增长理论和旅游业自身发展的特点,构建了旅游经济增长因素体系及其衡量指标。在此基础上建立非线性主成分回归模型对安徽省旅游经济增长的影响因素进行实证分析,估计影响因素的弹性参数,并计算了各影响因素的贡献度。第五章安徽省旅游经济增长因素的地区差异分析。以第四章构建的旅游经济增长因素体系为基础,利用灰色关联分析,考察各因素与安徽省各地市旅游经济增长的关联性。在得出关联度的基础上,分析了影响因素在地区上的异同。第六章总结上述章节的研究结论,并依此提出几点建议,为安徽省今后旅游经济更加健康地发展提供参考。
[Abstract]:In the past 20 years, with the development of tourism becoming the focus of our country's attention, Anhui's tourism has achieved rapid development. Its contribution to Anhui's economy is also increasing, and it has become one of the main driving forces of Anhui's regional economic growth. Tourism can increase tourism revenue and further promote the development of Anhui's regional economy.
As one of the industries that Anhui Province attaches great importance to, although in recent years, Anhui Province's tourism economic growth rate is relatively fast, but its growth volatility is relatively large, easy to be interfered by external factors. The following are some questions. How can we maintain the stable and sustained growth of Anhui tourism economy? Can the tourism economy of all cities in Anhui Province achieve coordinated growth? What are the factors that determine the growth of Anhui tourism economy? From the current research results, there is no scholar to Anhui Province above-mentioned problems. Therefore, on the basis of thorough understanding of the current situation of tourism economic growth in Anhui Province, this paper explores the main factors influencing tourism economic growth in Anhui Province by establishing a nonlinear principal component regression model, and further studies the factors influencing tourism economic growth in Anhui Province and their possible existence by using grey relational analysis method. In the end, the paper draws a conclusion, hoping to put forward some targeted countermeasures and suggestions through this study, so as to promote the steady and sustained growth of Anhui tourism economy and the coordinated growth of regional tourism economy.
The main contents of this article are as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. It mainly includes the background of the research subject, the review of the related research progress, the significance of the research, the methods adopted, the research ideas and innovations. This part mainly provides a reference for the research topic in this paper.
Chapter 2 defines the relevant theoretical basis and important concepts. It expounds the theoretical basis and core concepts related to the research topic of this paper. The core concepts focus on the research topic, including the concepts of economic growth, economic growth mechanism and economic growth model. This chapter is the theoretical basis of this paper, which provides theoretical guidance for the study of tourism economic growth factors.
The third chapter describes the current situation of tourism economic growth in Anhui Province. The analysis perspective includes the overall and regional aspects of Anhui Province. This paper analyzes the spatial pattern of tourism economic growth in Anhui Province, mainly analyzes whether there are obvious differences in the scale and growth rate of tourism economy in different cities and whether there is correlation between them, and further analyzes the changes of tourism economic growth differences in different cities from the perspective of absolute differences and relative differences.
Chapter Four explores the factors of tourism economic growth in Anhui Province and calculates the contribution rate of the factors. Combining the theory of economic growth and the characteristics of tourism development, this chapter constructs the factor system of tourism economic growth and its measurement index. Empirical analysis is used to estimate the elastic parameters of the influencing factors and the contribution of each factor is calculated.
The fifth chapter analyzes the regional differences of tourism economic growth factors in Anhui Province. Based on the tourism economic growth factor system constructed in the fourth chapter, the grey relational analysis is used to investigate the correlation between various factors and tourism economic growth in Anhui Province.
Chapter 6 summarizes the research conclusions of the above chapters and puts forward some suggestions for the future development of Anhui tourism economy in a more healthy way.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592.7

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