实物期权法在亚龙通航低空旅游项目中的应用研究
发布时间：2018-10-19 17:57
【摘要】：随着国家对低空旅游的政策的逐渐开放，发展低空旅游面临着前所未有的机遇与挑战。而如何正确地对低空旅游项目投资项目进行投资评估又是低空旅游发展的一个重要环节。由于传统投资评估理论在低空旅游投资领域的投资评估是有先天性缺陷的，它不能利用项目本身拥有的不确定性来为企业创造价值，实物期权方法恰恰是因为其能较好地评价拥有高度不确定性的投资项目，通过发挥“化被动为主动的灵活性”保留了其积极影响并且在很大程度上成功地避免了不确定性带来的消极影响，而受到了越来越广泛的关注。 因为实物期权方法有别于传统的投资评估方法，它注重管理柔性和不确定性带来的投资价值，本文详尽地介绍了实物期权法在亚龙通航低空旅游项目中的应用过程，包括确定该项目的实物期权特征、选择与之相匹配的模型，结合亚龙通航的实际情况，说明实物期权的先进性，为同行的投资评估提供借鉴。实物期权是对传统的投资评估方法取其精华去其糟粕，进一步发展和飞跃。本文通过对亚龙通航低空旅游项目进行定性分析，，得出客流量是决定项目价值的主要因素。介绍了本文中需要用到的实物期权模型：成长期权模型，为准确确定期权模型的参数，在一般的经济评价领域建立了期权定价模型。 最后通过亚龙通航低空旅游项目的实际数据，确定各个参数的具体值，使用计算机VBA程序语言在EXCEL中加载宏模块计算出最后的期权价值，并基于计算出的结果得出结论，提出以后使用该方法的建议以及该方法使用中存在的不足，为企业投资评估中应用实期权方法提供更完备的参考依据，为实物期权方法在相似企业中的应用提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:With the gradual opening of national policy to low-altitude tourism, the development of low-altitude tourism is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. How to correctly evaluate the investment of low-altitude tourism projects is an important link in the development of low-altitude tourism. Because the traditional investment evaluation theory has inherent defects in the field of low-altitude tourism investment, it can not make use of the uncertainty of the project itself to create value for the enterprise. The real options approach is precisely because it can better evaluate investment projects with a high degree of uncertainty. By exerting the "passive to active flexibility", the positive influence is preserved and the negative influence brought by uncertainty is successfully avoided to a great extent, which has attracted more and more attention. Because the real option method is different from the traditional investment evaluation method, it pays attention to the investment value brought by the flexibility and uncertainty of management. This paper introduces the application process of the real option method in the low altitude tourism project of Yalong navigation in detail. Including determining the real option characteristics of the project, selecting the matching model, combining with the actual situation of Yalong navigation, explaining the advanced nature of the real option and providing reference for the peer investment evaluation. Real option is to take the essence of the traditional investment evaluation method to remove its dross, further development and leap. Through qualitative analysis of Yalong navigation low altitude tourism project, it is concluded that passenger flow is the main factor that determines the value of the project. This paper introduces the real option model: the growth option model. In order to accurately determine the parameters of the option model, the option pricing model is established in the general economic evaluation field. Finally, through the actual data of Yalong navigation low-altitude tourism project, the specific value of each parameter is determined, and the final option value is calculated by loading macro module in EXCEL with computer VBA program language, and the conclusion is drawn based on the calculated results. The suggestion of using this method in the future and the shortcomings of the method are put forward to provide a more complete reference basis for the application of real option method in the investment evaluation of enterprises and a reference for the application of real option method in similar enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：延安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F592.7
本文编号：2281907
[Abstract]:With the gradual opening of national policy to low-altitude tourism, the development of low-altitude tourism is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. How to correctly evaluate the investment of low-altitude tourism projects is an important link in the development of low-altitude tourism. Because the traditional investment evaluation theory has inherent defects in the field of low-altitude tourism investment, it can not make use of the uncertainty of the project itself to create value for the enterprise. The real options approach is precisely because it can better evaluate investment projects with a high degree of uncertainty. By exerting the "passive to active flexibility", the positive influence is preserved and the negative influence brought by uncertainty is successfully avoided to a great extent, which has attracted more and more attention. Because the real option method is different from the traditional investment evaluation method, it pays attention to the investment value brought by the flexibility and uncertainty of management. This paper introduces the application process of the real option method in the low altitude tourism project of Yalong navigation in detail. Including determining the real option characteristics of the project, selecting the matching model, combining with the actual situation of Yalong navigation, explaining the advanced nature of the real option and providing reference for the peer investment evaluation. Real option is to take the essence of the traditional investment evaluation method to remove its dross, further development and leap. Through qualitative analysis of Yalong navigation low altitude tourism project, it is concluded that passenger flow is the main factor that determines the value of the project. This paper introduces the real option model: the growth option model. In order to accurately determine the parameters of the option model, the option pricing model is established in the general economic evaluation field. Finally, through the actual data of Yalong navigation low-altitude tourism project, the specific value of each parameter is determined, and the final option value is calculated by loading macro module in EXCEL with computer VBA program language, and the conclusion is drawn based on the calculated results. The suggestion of using this method in the future and the shortcomings of the method are put forward to provide a more complete reference basis for the application of real option method in the investment evaluation of enterprises and a reference for the application of real option method in similar enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：延安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F592.7
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