基于WITNESS系统仿真的旅游流时空卡口预测研究
发布时间：2018-11-06 20:10
【摘要】：在大众旅游时代,我国多处热门景区频繁出现游客拥挤、滞留、踩踏事件,景区客流管理面临现实挑战。旅游流时空卡口概念及识别方法的提出弥补了基于静态环境容量值的景区客流传统管理方法的不足,为景区客流管理从静态被动式管理向动态实时的主动管理转变提供了新思路。然而旅游流时空卡口只是基于现有旅游者时空分布数据提出的,缺乏预测旅游者未来时空分布的有效方式,因此还停留在理论构想层面。本文以时间地理学与概率时间地理学为理论基础,以系统仿真为研究方法,在将景区环境抽象为出入口、路径、停留点,将旅游者行为分解为旅游者到达规则、移动停留规则以及游览规则的基础上,以香港海洋公园为案例地,以WITNESS系统仿真软件为平台,建立了基于概率的景区系统仿真模型,借此来预测景区内旅游者的时空分布,为识别旅游流时空卡口提供数据来源。同时,本文修正了之前通过计算旅游者停留人数和停留时间频次来识别旅游流时空卡口的方法,提出了以旅游流时空密度指数作为识别旅游流时空卡口的新方法。此外,通过对香港海洋公园仿真系统进行仿真实验,发现当游客规模设定为日平均游客接待量时,香港海洋公园旅游流时空卡口主要集中在冰极天地、梦幻水都以及威威天地这三个景点,时间上大多集中在中午12:00以后。而当游客规模增长时,景区内旅游流时空卡口的分布也随之变动,但游客规模大小与是否出现旅游流时空卡口之间并没有直接的关系。最后本文从如何有效预测旅游流时空卡口、如何避免旅游流时空卡口出现以及如何管理旅游流时空卡口三个方面提出了对景区客流管理的建议。本文研究不仅完善了旅游流时空卡口的理论与识别方法,具有理论意义,而且在景区客流调控、避免游客滞留、保护景区资源及游客安全方面也具有重要的实践价值。
[Abstract]:In the era of mass tourism, many popular scenic spots in our country frequently appear crowded, stranded, stampede events, and the tourist flow management of scenic spots is faced with real challenges. The concept and identification method of Spatio-temporal bayonet of tourist flow make up the deficiency of traditional management method of tourist flow based on static environmental capacity. It provides a new idea for the change of tourist flow management from static passive management to dynamic real-time active management. However, the spatio-temporal bayonet of tourist flow is only based on the existing data of the spatial and temporal distribution of tourists, and it lacks of an effective way to predict the future spatial and temporal distribution of tourists, so it stays at the level of theory and conception. Based on the theory of time geography and probabilistic time geography, this paper takes system simulation as the research method, abstracts the scenic spot environment as the entrance and exit, the path, the stop point, and decomposes the tourist behavior into the tourist arrival rule. Taking Hong Kong Ocean Park as an example and WITNESS system simulation software as the platform, a probabilistic simulation model of scenic spot system is established to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of tourists in the scenic area. Provides the data source for identifying the travel flow time and space bayonet. At the same time, this paper corrects the previous method of identifying tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonets by calculating the number of tourists staying and the frequency of residence time, and puts forward a new method to identify tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonets by using the time-space density index of tourist flows. In addition, through the simulation experiment of the Hong Kong Ocean Park simulation system, it is found that when the tourist scale is set at the average daily tourist reception volume, the space-time bayonets of the Hong Kong Ocean Park tourist flow are mainly concentrated in the ice pole world. Dream water and Weiwei Tiandi these three scenic spots, most of the time concentrated at 12:00 after noon. When the tourist scale increases, the distribution of tourist flow time and space bayonet also changes, but there is no direct relationship between the size of tourists and whether there is a tourist flow time and space bayonet. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on tourist flow management from three aspects: how to effectively predict the tourist flow space-time bayonet, how to avoid the tourist flow space-time bayonet and how to manage the tourist flow space-time bayonet. This paper not only improves the theory and identification method of tourist flow time and space bayonet, but also has important practical value in regulating tourist flow, avoiding tourists staying, protecting scenic area resources and tourist safety.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F592.7
[Abstract]:In the era of mass tourism, many popular scenic spots in our country frequently appear crowded, stranded, stampede events, and the tourist flow management of scenic spots is faced with real challenges. The concept and identification method of Spatio-temporal bayonet of tourist flow make up the deficiency of traditional management method of tourist flow based on static environmental capacity. It provides a new idea for the change of tourist flow management from static passive management to dynamic real-time active management. However, the spatio-temporal bayonet of tourist flow is only based on the existing data of the spatial and temporal distribution of tourists, and it lacks of an effective way to predict the future spatial and temporal distribution of tourists, so it stays at the level of theory and conception. Based on the theory of time geography and probabilistic time geography, this paper takes system simulation as the research method, abstracts the scenic spot environment as the entrance and exit, the path, the stop point, and decomposes the tourist behavior into the tourist arrival rule. Taking Hong Kong Ocean Park as an example and WITNESS system simulation software as the platform, a probabilistic simulation model of scenic spot system is established to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of tourists in the scenic area. Provides the data source for identifying the travel flow time and space bayonet. At the same time, this paper corrects the previous method of identifying tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonets by calculating the number of tourists staying and the frequency of residence time, and puts forward a new method to identify tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonets by using the time-space density index of tourist flows. In addition, through the simulation experiment of the Hong Kong Ocean Park simulation system, it is found that when the tourist scale is set at the average daily tourist reception volume, the space-time bayonets of the Hong Kong Ocean Park tourist flow are mainly concentrated in the ice pole world. Dream water and Weiwei Tiandi these three scenic spots, most of the time concentrated at 12:00 after noon. When the tourist scale increases, the distribution of tourist flow time and space bayonet also changes, but there is no direct relationship between the size of tourists and whether there is a tourist flow time and space bayonet. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on tourist flow management from three aspects: how to effectively predict the tourist flow space-time bayonet, how to avoid the tourist flow space-time bayonet and how to manage the tourist flow space-time bayonet. This paper not only improves the theory and identification method of tourist flow time and space bayonet, but also has important practical value in regulating tourist flow, avoiding tourists staying, protecting scenic area resources and tourist safety.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F592.7
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