被忽视的真实力量:旅游非正规就业及其拉动效应

发布时间：2018-11-07 08:19

【摘要】：文章以我国经济结构调整为背景,指出当GDP增长率降低到8%以下时我国面临着很大的就业压力。通过文献的梳理,文章说明了在此期间,发展旅游业是解决结构性失业最有效的途径之一。但是,目前的大部分研究都只是把注意力放在了旅游正规部门的就业及其拉动效应上,而忽视了旅游非正规部门的就业。文章详细回顾了国内学者对旅游就业乘数的估算以及他们的结果与WTTC(世界旅行和旅游理事会)之间的差别,回答了这些差别产生的原因,指出WTTC低估了2001年之后的旅游就业效应。在上述基础上,文章利用差值法计算了旅游非正规就业的总量及其结构拉动效应。研究发现,从非正规就业的部门结构角度看,旅游就业的拉动效应远远高于WTTC和国内学者此前计算的间接就业效应;在2011年,它吸纳了2040.40万人在该行业工作,乘数效应达到9.98。因此,在结构调整时期,政府部门应该更加重视旅游非正规部门对就业的功能性作用。
[Abstract]:Based on the adjustment of China's economic structure, this paper points out that China is faced with great employment pressure when the growth rate of GDP falls below 8%. By combing the literature, the paper shows that developing tourism is one of the most effective ways to solve structural unemployment during this period. However, most of the current studies focus on the employment in the formal sector of tourism and its pull effect, while ignoring the employment in the informal sector of tourism. This paper reviews in detail the estimates of tourism employment multipliers made by domestic scholars and the differences between their results and WTTC (World Travel and Tourism Council), and answers the reasons for these differences. It is pointed out that WTTC underestimated the effect of tourism employment after 2001. On the basis of the above, the paper calculates the total amount of tourism informal employment and its structural pull effect by using the difference method. From the perspective of the sector structure of informal employment, the pull effect of tourism employment is much higher than the indirect employment effect calculated by WTTC and domestic scholars. In 2011, it hired 20.404 million people to work in the industry, with a multiplier effect of 9. 98. Therefore, in the period of structural adjustment, government departments should pay more attention to the functional role of tourism informal sector in employment.
【作者单位】：青岛大学旅游学院旅游管理系;北京第二外国语学院旅游管理学院;
【基金】：国家旅游局规划项目(13TABG011)资助~~
【分类号】：F592;F249.2

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