收入驱动国民出境旅游S模型——四个国家和地区比较

发布时间：2019-01-21 16:15

【摘要】：收入是驱动人们外出旅游的关键因素,相对国内旅游而言,出境旅游距离远、花费高,对人均收入有着更高的要求。本文以我国台湾地区、韩国、美国、英国为典型案例,依据1980~2010年时间序列数据,构建了收入驱动的国民出境旅游率S型曲线模型,分析了人均GDP变化对国民出境旅游的影响,并引入了三个特征值,对四个经济体居民出境旅游率S型曲线进行横向比较。结果发现,人均GDP在0.4万~0.6万美元,居民出境旅游起步进入导入点;人均GDP在1.1万~1.5万美元,出境旅游进入爆发的转折点;人均GDP达到2.0万~3.0万美元,出境旅游进人稳定的成熟期。本文从S型曲线的特征点出发,分析了四个经济体居民出境旅游的差异。在此基础上,以美国为案例,分析了人均GDP增长对国民出境旅游空间大小的影响,发现人均GDP超过2.0万美元后,国民选择长距离洲际旅游几率增大,而短距离洲内旅游相对稳定;并对中国出境游的现状做出分析。本文澄清了对出境旅游收入门槛的模糊认识,也为出境旅游空间尺度的变化提供了新的事实。
[Abstract]:Income is the key factor to drive people to travel. Compared with domestic tourism, outbound tourism is far away, high cost, and has higher requirements on per capita income. Taking Taiwan, South Korea, the United States and the United Kingdom as typical cases, based on the time series data from 1980 to 2010, this paper constructs an income driven S curve model of national outbound tourism rate, and analyzes the impact of per capita GDP change on national outbound tourism. Three eigenvalues are introduced to compare the S-shaped curve of outbound tourism rate in four economies. The results show that the per capita GDP is 4000 ~ 6000 US dollars, the resident outbound tourism starts to enter the import point, the per capita GDP is 11000 ~ 15000 US dollars, the exit tourism enters the turning point of outbreak; GDP per capita reached 20000-30000 US dollars, outbound tourism into a stable mature period. Based on the characteristic points of S-shaped curve, this paper analyzes the difference of residents' outbound tourism in four economies. On this basis, taking the United States as an example, this paper analyzes the influence of per capita GDP growth on the size of national outbound tourism space. It is found that when the per capita GDP exceeds 20000 US dollars, the probability of national choosing long-distance intercontinental tourism increases. The tourism in short distance continent is relatively stable; And make an analysis of the current situation of China's outbound travel. This paper clarifies the vague understanding of the threshold of outbound tourism income and provides a new fact for the change of the spatial scale of outbound tourism.
【作者单位】：陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目“新时期国内旅游的抗周期性及经济效应研究”(12BJY131)
【分类号】：F592

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