人口老龄化背景下国内旅游业发展前景的实证分析——基于边限协整检验

发布时间：2019-06-11 12:39

【摘要】：尽管人口老龄化问题得到了广泛关注,但对于作为老龄产业不可或缺的老年旅游业的实证研究却很少。我们选取1995-2011年65岁及以上老年人口在总人口中的比重、国内游客人次、国内旅游总花费、人均国内生产总值变量,采用边限协整检验方法探讨当前中国老龄化和国内旅游业发展之间的有机关联。结果表明,人口老龄化和国内游客人次变量之间存在长期协整关系;但是,人口老龄化和国内旅游总花费变量之间却未表现出稳定的长期协整关系。为了推进老龄旅游业的持续发展,须做好两方面工作:一是继续稳步提高老年社会保障水平,以提升老年人购买力;二是在国内旅游规划、产品开发和服务提供中要充分考虑老年人的需求。
[Abstract]:Although the problem of population aging has been paid more and more attention, there are few empirical studies on the tourism industry for the elderly, which is indispensable for the elderly industry. We selected the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and over in the total population from 1995 to 2011, the number of domestic tourists, the total cost of domestic tourism, and the variables of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The boundary cointegration test is used to explore the organic relationship between the aging of China and the development of domestic tourism. The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between population aging and domestic tourist number variables, but there is no stable long-term co-integration relationship between population aging and domestic tourism total cost variables. In order to promote the sustainable development of tourism for the elderly, it is necessary to do a good job in two aspects: first, to continue to steadily improve the level of social security for the elderly, in order to increase the purchasing power of the elderly; Second, the needs of the elderly should be fully taken into account in domestic tourism planning, product development and service provision.
【作者单位】：清华大学社会学系;北京大学社会学系;
【基金】：2013年度教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(13JZD005)
【分类号】：C913.6;F592.6

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