基于引力模型的华侨华人对中国出境入境旅游影响的研究

发布时间：2019-06-13 19:19

【摘要】：本文基于引力模型,首先从整体上估计了华侨华人对中国入境旅游人数的影响,然后分别估计了不同大洲中,华侨华人对中国入境旅游人数的影响。结果显示,整体上华侨华人对中国入境旅游人数有着明确的影响,显著程度在46%,也就是说,在其它条件不变的情况下,海外每增加1个华侨华人,中国将增加0.46个入境旅游者；在分不同大洲的分析中,除亚洲的结果显示华侨华人对中国入境旅游人数没有影响外,其它大洲的影响趋势同整体上的相似。对于出境旅游方面,华侨华人虽然在总体上没有影响,不过在亚洲大陆上,尤其是在东南亚地区,华侨华人的人数变化对中国的出境旅游却有着明显的影响。值得注意的是,本研究也得出了几个有特点结论。中国对亚洲目的地国在模型表现出来的结果与全局版块模型有所不同,在全局版块中,华侨华人对中国的出境旅游市场是没有明显的影响的,而在中国对亚洲国家的出境旅游模型中,华侨华人有着显著的影响,这个影响在41.2%[exp(0.345)-1]左右,也就是说亚洲其它国家的华侨华人每增加1个,将会有0.412个中国本地居民出国旅游。这是因为中国的华侨华人与东南亚在历史上有着千丝万缕的联系,华侨华人的增多会加强中国与其它亚洲国家间的联系。除了亚洲国对与中国的出境入境旅游关系表现出与全球范围内的结果差别很大外,其它大洲的分析结果均与全球范围内的分析结果很相似。这说明,全球范围内对中国出境入境旅游的影响是一个主流趋势,亚洲版块的对中国出境入境旅游是影响是一个地区性的特点,这个特点有待进一步研究。
[Abstract]:Based on the gravity model, this paper first estimates the influence of overseas Chinese on the number of inbound tourists in China as a whole, and then estimates the influence of overseas Chinese on the number of inbound tourists in China on different continents. The results show that, as a whole, overseas Chinese have a clear impact on the number of inbound tourists in China, with a significant degree of 46%. That is to say, with the same other conditions, China will increase 0.46 inbound tourists for every additional overseas Chinese. In the analysis of different continents, except that the results of Asia show that overseas Chinese have no effect on the number of inbound tourists in China, the influence trend of other continents is similar to that of the whole. Although overseas Chinese have no influence on outbound tourism as a whole, in mainland Asia, especially in Southeast Asia, the change of the number of overseas Chinese has a significant impact on China's outbound tourism. It is worth noting that this study also draws several characteristic conclusions. The results of China's model for Asian destination countries are different from those of the global version model. In the global version, overseas Chinese have no obvious influence on China's outbound tourism market, while in China's outbound tourism model for Asian countries, overseas Chinese have a significant impact, which is about 41.2% [exp (0.345)-1]. That is to say, for every additional number of overseas Chinese in other Asian countries, 0.412 local Chinese will travel abroad. This is because overseas Chinese in China are inextricably linked to Southeast Asia in history, and the increase in overseas Chinese will strengthen ties between China and other Asian countries. Except that the Asian countries' outbound tourism relationship with China is very different from the global results, the results of the analysis on other continents are very similar to those of the global analysis. This shows that the global impact on China's outbound tourism is a mainstream trend, and the Asian version of the impact on China's outbound tourism is a regional feature, which needs to be further studied.
【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592;F224

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