模块企业进入、退出与升级的投资决策研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 12:23

本文选题：模块化　切入点：信息产业　出处：《电子科技大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：信息产业的快速发展对于推动经济发展与社会进步的具有支撑作用。同时,信息产业又是一个极具模块化特征的产业,产业中的各种现象都是企业微观行为的结果。在信息产业的发展历程中,企业如何做好项目的投资决策对企业的发展显得尤为重要。由于信息产业本身的技术复杂性高、投资金额巨大、结果存在高度不确定等特征,使得传统的创新投资模式不能有效地解决投资中存在的问题。基于信息产业在国民经济发展中的重要性和传统创新投资模式存在的不足,本文结合了模块化创新的方法对现有文献关于信息产业的项目投资中较少涉及的问题进行了研究,并综合考虑了模块复杂性、技术潜力、消费者偏好等诸多因素,采用实物期权方法分别建立了完全垄断企业首次进行模块投资、面临市场竞争的新创企业模块化进入投资以及处于竞争环境下的在位企业模块创新投资的决策模型。研究结论表明,(1)模块化投资存在一个固定的最小最优试验次数,其对应的投资临界值是模块投资真正意义上的“投资临界值”；(2)当市场需求水平低于“投资临界值”时,真正能够影响最小最优试验次数的是市场需求水平的期望增长率和波动率,其他因素没有影响；(3)新创企业进入市场时将极力避免与在位企业展开同质化竞争,将依情况采取高端进入或低端进入策略；(4)在低端进入策略中,随着模块技术潜力的增大,最优试验次数先增后降,而在高端进入策略中,最优试验次数逐渐增大。(5)市场需求水平和竞争对手系统性能的差距将会影响在位企业最优的模块投资策略,在某一市场需求水平下,企业需要根据其系统的初始性能水平选择退出、维持或者升级；(6)处于低性能水平的企业可供选择的最优策略包括退出或升级,处于中间性能的企业可供选择的最优策略包括退出、中端等待或升级,处于性能领先位置的企业可供选择的最优策略包括退出、高端等待或升级。本文的研究有助于我们理解模块化信息产业的各种现象和演化规律。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of information industry plays a supporting role in promoting economic development and social progress.At the same time, the information industry is also a modularized industry, and all kinds of phenomena in the industry are the result of the microcosmic behavior of enterprises.In the course of the development of information industry, it is very important for enterprises to make project investment decisions.Because of the high technical complexity, huge investment amount and highly uncertain result of information industry, the traditional innovative investment mode can not effectively solve the problems existing in investment.Based on the importance of information industry in the development of national economy and the shortcomings of the traditional innovation investment mode, this paper studies the problems rarely involved in the project investment of the information industry in the existing literature, which is based on the modular innovation method.Considering many factors such as module complexity, technology potential, consumer preference and so on, the real option method is used to establish the complete monopoly enterprise to invest in the module for the first time.The decision model of modularized entry investment and innovation investment of existing enterprises in the market competition.The results show that there is a fixed minimum optimal test number for modular investment, and the corresponding investment critical value is the "investment critical value" in the real sense of modular investment. When the market demand level is lower than the "investment critical value",The expected growth rate and volatility of the market demand level can really affect the minimum and optimal trial times, but other factors have no effect on the market. When the startups enter the market, they will try their best to avoid the homogenous competition with the incumbent enterprises.The difference between the market demand level and the system performance of the competitors will affect the optimal module investment strategy of the incumbent enterprise, and at a certain market demand level, the optimal module investment strategy will be affected by the difference between the market demand level and the system performance of the competitors.Enterprises need to choose exit according to the initial performance level of their system.The optimal strategies for enterprises with intermediate performance include exit, mid-end wait or upgrade, and those in leading position include exit, high-end wait or upgrade.The research in this paper is helpful for us to understand the various phenomena and evolution laws of modular information industry.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F49;F832.48

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