基于顾客选择行为分析的手机套餐优化设计方法

发布时间：2018-05-02 16:04

本文选题：手机套餐 + 顾客全生命周期管理　；参考：《东北大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：2008年最新一轮电信行业重组之后,中国的电信服务行业形成了中国电信、中国移动和中国联通三家电信运营商全业务竞争的格局,电信市场竞争日趋激烈,早已成为“买方市场”。面向手机用户提供的移动业务服务是电信行业运营商竞争和关注的焦点,是本文研究的对象。手机套餐作为电信行业运营商移动业务服务(产品)的一种组合销售模式,已经成为运营商市场销售的核心销售产品。手机套餐的设计优化成为电信行业企业市场经营的重要基础工作,其管理呈现复杂性与专业性。手机套餐也经历了由混乱到规范、由面向产品到面向客户、由同质化向差异化的演变过程。虽然电信企业目前均已形成一套相对系统的手机套餐管理体系与设计流程,但是其管理模式还相对粗放。一方面没有形成科学的全生命周期管理体系,造成市场上大量复杂的、过时的、低效率的、甚至自相矛盾的手机套餐存在,推广效率低下,管理成本高昂的局面；另一方面,手机套餐的设计缺乏科学和量化的方法,不能将目标客户群的消费选择行为、消费能力、客户终身价值、市场竞争情况等因素根据历史数据进行综合考虑及科学规划,缺乏有效的套餐评价方法,不能够形成准确的套餐经营决策依据。本文立足了电信企业手机套餐产品的管理与设计优化的核心工作,结合作者在电信公司的工作实际,应用管理科学与工程的理论和方法,研究了手机套餐产品的管理和设计过程,主要成果集中在以下几方面：(1)提出了全生命周期套餐管理的体系架构,分析了套餐设计优化的核心流程、工作内涵及考虑的因素,建立了手机套餐从市场调研、套餐规划、客户分群、套餐设计等环节工作直至套餐优化、套餐退出的全生命周期管理体系,以实现手机套餐的专业化、系统化、流程化管理。(2)针对手机套餐的设计环节,提出一套基于顾客选择行为分析的手机套餐设计框架模型,实现了手机套餐设计从市场调研、目标客户分群、客户选择行为定量分析、基于客户终身价值的套餐效用测算、套餐方案评价到套餐优化方案选择的综合解决方案,从而为电信企业进行套餐设计过程提供方法论的指导。(3)从客户群体消费特征分析入手,提出了电信客户细分的三维模型,采用了Kohonen聚类方法根据历史数据对客户群体进行聚类分析,实现了对目标客户群按相似消费特征进行聚类分群,有利于电信企业根据不同分群客户的消费特征制定有针对性的套餐或营销服务策略；同时,该方法充分应用和挖掘电信企业大量的用户历史消费数据,能够借助数据挖掘工具与智能算法辅助企业进行客户分群研究、套餐效用评价及最优套餐设计方案决策等工作。(4)提出了基于顾客选择行为分析的手机套餐量化评价方法。该方法可以估算手机套餐各分档的市场占有份额和顾客终身价值,帮助电信企业量化对比不同的套餐方案,并在此基础上进一步进行优化决策。该评估模型中考虑了手机套餐的竞争套餐、公司现有套餐、收入长期性、未来收益和资金折现率等的影响,更加符合电信市场实际情况。(5)分析了均匀属性手机套餐的特点,在基于顾客选择行为分析的手机套餐量化评价方法的基础上,提出了针对均匀属性手机套餐设计优化的数学规划模型,并设计了遗传算法对建立的优化模型进行求解。该方法能够帮助电信企业应用先进的智能优化算法获得比较满意的手机套餐方案,避免手机套餐的设计单纯依赖人工经验和定性分析,实现手机套餐设计的科学化和系统化。(6)考虑了手机套餐设计中分档数量可变的情况,将套餐分档数量作为决策变量,建立了手机套餐设计的优化模型。通过求解该模型,不但可以获得最优手机套餐的分档属性水平值,而且也可以得到最优的分档数量,从而实现帮助电信企业应用量化方法选择分档数量可变情形下的最优手机套餐方案。设计了遗传算法与粒子群算法两种智能优化算法对建立的模型进行求解,并通过实验对两种算法的求解计算效果进行了分析和比较。本研究致力于解决电信企业套餐管理在宏观和微观两个层面的能力提升问题；宏观层面解决电信企业全生命周期套餐管理体系的设计问题,微观层面不仅提出了具体套餐设计的核心框架模型,也解决了套餐设计优化工作中基于客户行为分析及客户终身价值的量化评价与最优方案选择的问题。本研究对于电信企业提升套餐管理水平和实施科学量化的套餐设计和管理工作具有现实指导意义。
[Abstract]:After the latest restructuring of the telecommunications industry in 2008, the telecom service industry in China has formed the China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom three telecom operators all business competition pattern, the telecommunications market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, has already become the "buyer's market". Mobile services for mobile users are telecom operators. The focus of competition and attention is the object of this study. As a combination sales model of mobile business service (product) of telecom operators, mobile phone package has become the core sales product of operators' market sales. The design optimization of mobile phone package has become an important basic work in the business of telecom industry and its management is presented. It has also experienced a process from chaos to specification, from product oriented to customer oriented, from homogeneity to differentiation. Although telecom enterprises have formed a set of relative system management system and design process, the management model is relatively extensive. On the one hand, there is no scientific research. The whole life cycle management system causes the existence of a large number of complex, outdated, inefficient, or even contradictory mobile phone packages in the market, and the promotion of low efficiency and high management costs; on the other hand, the design of the set of mobile phones lacks scientific and quantitative methods to choose the consumer behavior and consumption ability of the target customer group. Customer lifetime value, market competition, and other factors according to historical data comprehensive consideration and scientific planning, lack of effective method of set meal evaluation, can not form an accurate basis for the decision to manage the set meal. This paper is based on the core work of the management and design optimization of the telecom enterprise's mobile phone package products, and combines the author's work in the telecom company. In practice, applying the theory and method of management science and engineering, the management and design process of mobile phone package products are studied. The main achievements are as follows: (1) the system architecture of the whole life cycle management is put forward, the core flow of the optimization of the design of the package, the connotation of work and the factors to be considered, and the set up of the set up of a mobile phone set meal. From the market research, the package planning, the customer division, the package design and so on, the whole life cycle management system of the set meal is optimized to realize the professionalization, systematization and process management of the set meal. (2) a set of mobile package design framework based on the behavior analysis of the customer's choice is put forward. The model realizes the mobile phone package design from the market research, the target customer grouping, the customer selection behavior quantitative analysis, the utility calculation based on the customer lifetime value, the package plan evaluation to the comprehensive solution choice of the set meal optimization scheme, thus providing the methodology guidance for the telecom enterprise to carry on the set meal design process. (3) from the customer group. Based on the analysis of body consumption characteristics, a three-dimensional model of telecom customer segmentation is proposed. The Kohonen clustering method is used to cluster analysis of customer groups according to historical data. The cluster clustering is realized for the target customer group according to the similar consumption characteristics, which is beneficial to the telecom enterprises to formulate the target according to the consumer characteristics of different groups of customers. At the same time, the method fully uses and excavate a large number of users' historical consumption data of telecom enterprises, and can help enterprises to do the research of customer grouping, the utility evaluation of the set meal and the decision of the optimal package design with the help of data mining tools and intelligent algorithms. (4) an analysis based on the behavior analysis of customer selection is put forward. This method can estimate the share of the market share and the customer's lifetime value, help the telecom enterprises to quantify and compare different packages, and further optimize the decision. In the long run, the influence of future income and cash discount rate is more in line with the actual situation of the telecom market. (5) the characteristics of the uniform attribute mobile phone set meal are analyzed. On the basis of the quantitative evaluation method of the mobile set meal based on the customer selection behavior analysis, a mathematical programming model for the design optimization of the uniform property of the mobile phone set is put forward and the design is designed. This method can help the telecom enterprises to use advanced intelligent optimization algorithms to obtain more satisfactory mobile package plans, avoid the design of the mobile set meal simply rely on artificial experience and qualitative analysis, and realize the scientific and systematic design of the set of mobile phones. (6) consideration of the mobile phone set meal. In the case of variable number of sub files in the design, the optimization model of the design of the set of mobile phones is established by taking the number of the set meals as a decision variable. By solving the model, the level of the optimal file attribute level of the optimal mobile phone can be obtained, and the optimal number of files can be obtained, thus realizing the selection of the quantitative methods for the application of the telecom enterprises. The optimal mobile set meal scheme under the variable number of selection is designed. The two intelligent optimization algorithms of genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization are designed to solve the established model, and the calculation results of the two algorithms are analyzed and compared through experiments. The study is devoted to solving the macro and micro two of the management of the telecom enterprise set meal. At the macro level, we solve the design problem of the whole life cycle management system for telecom enterprises. The micro level not only puts forward the core framework model of the specific package design, but also solves the quantitative evaluation and optimal choice of customer lifetime value based on the analysis of customer behavior and the customer lifetime value in the optimization work of the set meal. This research has practical guiding significance for telecom enterprises to improve the management level of packages and implement scientific and quantitative package design and management.

【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F274;F626

【参考文献】