我国信息化对产业结构优化的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 18:15

本文选题：信息化 + 产业结构优化　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2008年全球金融风暴以来,我国经济增长速度放缓,至2015年GDP年增长率仅有6.9%。与此同时,资源稀缺、环境污染、产能过剩、需求不足等问题日益突出,成为阻碍我国经济增长的拦路虎。加速我国产业结构优化的步伐已成为当前形势下各项经济工作中的重中之重。万事俱备东风劲吹,近几年以大数据、物联网、云计算为代表的信息产业如雨后春笋,呈现爆发式增长,为我国经济发展注入了新的血液与活力。习总书记指出“应把握网络信息经济快速发展的重要历史机遇,利用信息化培养新动力并促进新发展,推动互联网更深更广的渗入各产业,挖掘新的经济增长点”,以信息化引导产业结构优化已成为我国经济建设的必然选择。鉴于此,研究我国信息化对产业结构优化的作用、捕捉其中的内在规律对推动产业结构优化、加快经济发展深具重要现实意义。为深入考察信息化对产业结构优化的影响,文章从理论、统计描述与计量三条主线展开研究。对信息化作用产业结构优化的机理分析和数理演绎推证表明,信息化能够有效促进产业结构优化,提升信息化水平将增大信息经济部门产值在经济总产值中的占比,并促使信息经济部门成为经济建设中的核心部门。对二者的统计描述显示:信息化与产业结构优化的时间演变特点和空间分布特点均具有较强的相似之处;在高信息化水平地区产业结构优化程度也趋于更高层次,在低信息化水平地区产业结构优化程度也将趋于更低层次。基于以上理论与现实依据,文章在非线性假设下,以信息化、城镇化、对外开放以及人口结构(包括老年抚养比和少儿抚养比)为转换变量构建面板平滑转换模型对信息化影响产业结构优化的非线性行为进行计量分析。模型估计结果表明,信息化能够显著促进产业结构优化,并且信息化的产业结构优化效应受转换变量的影响而呈现非线性特征:随信息化水平的提高,其对产业结构优化的影响由抑制转变为促进,并且促进作用逐渐增强;随城镇化水平的提高,信息化的产业结构优化效应呈现先减弱后增强的特征;随老年抚养比与少儿抚养比的增加,信息化的产业结构优化效应先后经历了不变—削弱—不变三个阶段;随对外开放程度的提高,信息化的产业结构优化效应先后经历了不变—削弱—增强—不变四个阶段。基于以上研究结论,文章根据我国当前实际,针对如何使信息化更好的服务于调结构、促发展提出了有益的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the global financial turmoil in 2008, China's economic growth rate has slowed, to 2015 GDP growth rate is only 6.9 percent. At the same time, the scarcity of resources, environmental pollution, overcapacity, insufficient demand and other problems increasingly stand in the way of China's economic growth. Accelerating the pace of industrial structure optimization in China has become the most important part of the economic work under the current situation. In recent years, the information industry represented by big data, Internet of things, cloud computing has been springing up, showing explosive growth, which has injected new blood and vitality into the economic development of our country. General Secretary Xi Xi pointed out that "We should grasp the important historical opportunities for the rapid development of the network information economy, use information technology to cultivate new power and promote new development, promote the Internet to penetrate deeper and wider into various industries, and tap new economic growth points." To guide the optimization of industrial structure with information technology has become the inevitable choice of China's economic construction. In view of this, it is of great practical significance to study the effect of informatization on the optimization of industrial structure in China, and to capture the inherent law of it in order to promote the optimization of industrial structure and speed up the development of economy. In order to investigate the influence of informatization on the optimization of industrial structure, this paper studies from three main lines: theory, statistical description and measurement. The mechanism analysis and mathematical deduction of the optimization of the industrial structure of informatization function show that informatization can effectively promote the optimization of industrial structure, and the promotion of informatization level will increase the proportion of the output value of the information economy sector in the total economic output value. And to promote the information economy to become the core sector of economic construction. The statistical description of the two shows that the characteristics of time evolution and spatial distribution of informatization and industrial structure optimization have strong similarities, and the degree of industrial structure optimization tends to a higher level in areas with high informatization level. The degree of industrial structure optimization in low information level area will also tend to lower level. Based on the above theoretical and practical basis, under the non-linear assumption, the article uses information technology, urbanization, A panel smooth transformation model is constructed to analyze the nonlinear behavior of informatization which affects the optimization of industrial structure by using the open policy and population structure (including old-age dependency ratio and child dependency ratio) as variables to construct the panel smooth transformation model. The results of model estimation show that informatization can significantly promote the optimization of industrial structure, and the effect of informatization on industrial structure optimization is affected by the transformation variables, which shows nonlinear characteristics: with the improvement of informatization level, Its influence on the optimization of industrial structure is changed from suppression to promotion, and the role of promotion is gradually strengthened, with the improvement of urbanization level, the effect of industrial structure optimization of informatization is weakened first and then enhanced. With the increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly and the children, the optimization effect of the industrial structure of the informationization has gone through three stages: unchanged, weakened and unchanged, and with the increase of the degree of opening to the outside world, The industrial structure optimization effect of informatization has experienced four stages: invariant-weakening-strengthening-invariant. Based on the above conclusions, according to the current situation of our country, this paper puts forward some useful policy suggestions on how to make informatization better serve the adjustment of structure and promote development.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F49;F121.3

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