梅特卡夫模型在企业估值中的运用

发布时间：2018-06-06 01:44

本文选题：梅特卡夫定律 + DEVA模型　；参考：《上海国家会计学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：互联网诞生于上世纪,经过几十年的发展,已经成为人们生活中不可或缺的一部分,截至2015年底,全球互联网用户数已经由2008年的15亿人增加至30亿人,其中仅中国互联网用户就多达6.88亿人。自国家将“互联网+”的概念作为经济领域重要战略后,作为全球第一大互联网用户市场,我国互联网企业的发展也进入了快车道。随着互联网经济的快速发展,互联网行业相关的资本运作也日益频繁,并购重组、挂牌新三板、A股上市甚至海外上市层出不穷,因此对于互联网企业估值的需求也变得高涨起来。但是传统的企业估值方法在面对互联网行业时却显得不够有效,大部分互联网企业尤其是初创期互联网企业面对着持续亏损或盈利不稳定的窘境,常常无法使用传统方法进行估值,而这部分企业却恰好是互联网行业资本运作的重要组成部分。因此,如何能够对这些企业做出合理有效的估值就成为了企业所有者和投资人共同关心的问题。本文通过以梅特卡夫定律为理论基础,综合考虑了互联网企业价值驱动因素及互联网行业的特殊性构建了新的模型,一方面充分反映了用户资源对企业价值的贡献,另一方面也通过引入新的参数对互联网企业采取了相对谨慎的估值。在本文构建的模型中,通过企业每用户贡献值ARPU、企业用户数量n、提供商品或服务的数量m、企业获取新用户的成本R和用户转化率α等五个参数对初创期互联网企业进行估值,综合考虑了企业用户规模、用户规模与企业价值的关系以及企业获取用户的成本。并且本文更进一步提出可以通过对比初创互联网企业和同行业其他获取新用户的成本来判断该企业是否具有投资价值,可以为投资者提供理论参考。最后,本文使用模型对A公司进行估值,得到的估值结果很低。经过分析后发现,该公司每用户平均贡献甚至低于其每用户获取成本,这很大程度上是其商业模式不佳导致的。因此最后得到结论是A公司未来不具有形成网络规模经济的潜力,没有投资价值。
[Abstract]:The Internet was born in the last century. After decades of development, it has become an indispensable part of people's lives. By the end of 2015, the number of Internet users in the world had increased from 1.5 billion in 2008 to 3 billion. Among them, China Internet users alone as many as 688 million people. Since the concept of "Internet" has been regarded as an important strategy in the economic field, as the largest Internet user market in the world, the development of Chinese Internet enterprises has also entered a fast track. With the rapid development of the Internet economy, the capital operation related to the Internet industry is also increasingly frequent. Mergers and acquisitions, listing on the new third Board, A-share listing and even overseas listing are emerging in endlessly. As a result, the demand for Internet enterprise valuation has also become high. However, the traditional enterprise valuation method is not effective enough in the face of the Internet industry. Most Internet enterprises, especially the start-up Internet enterprises, are facing the dilemma of sustained losses or unstable profits. It is often impossible to use traditional methods of valuation, which are an important part of the capital operation of the Internet industry. Therefore, how to make a reasonable and effective valuation of these enterprises has become a common concern of the owners and investors. On the basis of Metcalfe's law, this paper constructs a new model by synthetically considering the driving factors of Internet enterprise value and the particularity of Internet industry. On the one hand, it fully reflects the contribution of user resources to enterprise value. On the other hand, the introduction of new parameters to the Internet companies to take a relatively cautious valuation. In the model constructed in this paper, the initial Internet enterprises are estimated by five parameters: the contribution value of the enterprise per user, the number of users n, the quantity of goods or services provided, the cost R of the new user and the conversion rate of the new user. The enterprise user size, the relationship between user size and enterprise value, and the cost of obtaining users are considered. Moreover, this paper further proposes that we can compare the cost of Internet start-ups and other new users in the same industry to judge whether the enterprise has investment value or not, which can provide a theoretical reference for investors. Finally, the model is used to evaluate A company, and the result is very low. Analysis shows that the company's average contribution per user is even lower than its per user acquisition cost, largely due to its poor business model. Therefore, it is concluded that company A does not have the potential to form network economies of scale and has no investment value in the future.
【学位授予单位】：上海国家会计学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F49;F275

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